BALLYSAX STAKES TRENDS 2014

The Group 3 P.W. McGrath Memorial Ballysax Stakes has been moved from Leopardstown to Navan and will be run on Saturday, 12th April. Run over 1M 2F it has thrown up several top class winners since the turn of the millennium, including Galileo, High Chaparral, Yeats and Fame And Glory, though in recent years it hasn’t been quite as key as Derby trail as it had been in early part of the Millennium.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding
8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner
9 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 8.4F+

Weight
Winners of a group 1 or 2 carry a 5lb penalty, record reads 1351 (2-0-4)
Winners of a group 3 carry a 3lb penalty, record reads 4 (0-0-1)
3 of last 4 favourites to carry a penalty were unplaced.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut over 7F or further (exception struggled in a 6F maiden on debut)
10 of 10 winners had 0 or 1 run that season
6 of 6 winners that had run that season had either won or placed in a listed or group 3 race on their one start
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had had at least 2 previous starts (exception was Yeats in 2004 who won this on second start)
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (exception unplaced in a listed race on last start the previous year)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 94+ last time out
10 of 10 winners had won over 7F+
8 of 10 winners had won over 1M+ (2 exceptions had won/placed in class 1 company)
8 of 10 winners gained their first win at Navan, Leopardstown or Curragh
4 of 10 winners had won at Leopardstown (3 others having first course start)

Other Races
Beresford Stakes winner (Geoffrey Chaucer): 51 (1-0-2)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden winner (Ebasani): 16 (1-0-2)
Bulmers Live At Leopardstown Summer Racedays 2014 (C & G) Maiden winner (Fascinating Rock): 138 (1-0-3)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden winner (Answered): 215 (1-0-3)
Ladbrokes Loyalty Card EBF Maiden winner (Iniesta): 332 (0-2-3)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden winner (Geoffrey Chaucer): 3 (0-1-1)
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 7) finished 1st or 2nd in a 1M Navan maiden in October
2 of 4 Jim Bolger-trained winners ran in the Birdcatcher Nursery, finishing 38

Trainers
Jim Bolger (4-1-11) has trained 4 of the last 10 winners of this race (including 3 of last 4).
Aidan O’Brien (3-5-24) has accounted for 34.3% of total runners & had been responsible for 9 of last 10 favourites of this, so his return of 3 winners isn’t great. The record of his first strings is 2-2-10.
Dermot Weld (1-1-8) saddled the winner in 2005 & the runner-up in 2006 but his last 6 runners have all been unplaced.
John Oxx (0-2-7) last trained the winner of this in 1996, 2 of his 7 runners in past 10 runnings have been placed.

Price
No strong trends with 4 of 10 winners going off 10/1 or bigger and other 6 gong shorter than 5/1.
This has not been a good race for the favourite, with just 2 of the last 10 successful.
Favourites (2-3-10) have won 2 of the last 10, with only 5 favourites making the places. All 5 unplaced favourites were sent off 9/4 or shorter.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Sired by a group 1 winner with a stamina index of 8.4F+
- Had first run as a 2yo over 7F or 1M
- Previously run at least twice
- Had 0 or 1 run this year
- If run in 2014, either won or placed in a class 1 race
- Has won over 1M+
- Gained first win at Leopardstown, Curragh or Navan
- Finished in first 2 in a 1M maiden at Navan in October
- Trained by Jim Bolger
- Favourite has a poor record.