CHAMPION STAKES TRENDS 2014

The Qipco Champion Stakes will be one of three group 1’s taking place at Ascot on Saturday 18th October for the third Champions’ Day. Previously run at Newmarket, the race was moved to Ascot in 2011, when Cirrus Des Aigles took the race. After finishing 2nd in past 2 renewals, the French horse will be looking to regain the title this year.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
3yo: 4-5-39
4yo: 2-6-41
5yo: 3-5-21
6yo+: 1-3-8
There’s not a huge amount to go on from the age.
2 of 4 winners aged 5+ finished in the first 2 in the previous year’s race.

Gender


Fillies and mares (1-4-13) have gained 1 win in the past 10 years from approximately 12% of the total. However it has been the older brigade that have done better with 4yo+ (1-3-10) accounting for the win and 3 of the 4 places and the 3yo fillies (0-1-3) gaining just 1 place from 3 runners.

Breeding


8 of 10 winners were sired by a horse with a stamina index of 9.2F to 11.2F


Progeny of Galileo: 15313 (2-1-5)

Recent/Past Form


10 of 10 winners had won a class 1 race that season
9 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season (exception won group 1 on sole start)
8 of 10 winners had their last start at Goodwood, Leopardstown or Longchamp
6 of 10 winners finished won last time out (3 of 4 exceptions were 2nd or 3rd in a group 1 or 2)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 117+ last time (2 exceptions did so on previous start)
8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (1 exception had never run over the trip & other had been placed in group 1's on all 3 previous runs over this trip)
6 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (3 exceptions finished 2nd in a group 1)
3 of 4 winners aged 3 had won a group or listed race as a 2yo

Other races


Irish Champion Stakes winner (The Grey Gatsby): 3412 (1-2-4)
Grand Prix de Saint Cloud winner (Noble Mission): 51 (1-0-2)
Tatts Gold Cup winner (Noble Mission): 362 (0-2-3)
Huxley Stakes winner (Noble Mission): 36003 (0-2-5)
Cumberland Lodge Stakes winner (Pether's Moon): 2 (0-1-1)
Prix Ganay winner (Cirrus Des Aigles): 2 (0-1-1)
Prix Eugene Adam winner (Western Hymn): 20 (0-1-2)
Prix du Jockey Club winner (The Grey Gatsby): 4 (0-0-1)
York Stakes winner (Sheikhzayedroad): 705 (0-0-3)
3 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in that season's 2000 Guineas, finishing 102
2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Dewhurt, finishing 31
3 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in the Lockinge, finishing 311
2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Prince Of Wales Stakes, finishing 42
2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in the Eclipse, finishing 71
2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Grand Prix de Saint Cloud, finishing 12
2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Prix Ganay, finishing 43
3 of 10 winners ran in the Judmonte International, finishing 321
3 of 10 winners ran in the Sussex Stakes, finishing 971
2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 13

Trainers


The Cecil Yard (3-1-8) has been responsible for 3 of the last 5 winners.
Corinne Barande-Barbe (1-2-3) trained Cirrus Des Aigles to win it in 2011 and finish 2nd in the past 2 years.
Surprisingly Aidan O’Brien (0-3-9) and John Gosden (0-1-8) have both failed to ever train the winner of this race.
French–based trainers (3-6-19) have done well, gaining 3 wins and 6 places from approximately 17.4% of the total runners.

Price


Not a strong trends race on prices with winners varying from 6/5 to 25/1.
Favourites (2-4-10) have a poor record, winning just 2 of last 10 & show a level stakes loss of 6.62.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sired by a horse with a stamina index of 9.2F and 11.2F
- 3yo who won a class 1 race as a 2yo & ran in 2000 Guineas
- 4 or 5yo that placed in 2013 Champions Stakes, Juddmonte Int’l and/or Lockinge
- Run at least 4 times in 2014 & won a class 1 race this year
- Won last time out (or 2nd/3rd in a group 1)
- Posted an RPR of 117+ last time
- Won over 1M 2F (or placed in group 1 over this trip)
- Previously finished in the first 2 in a group 1
- Trained in France or from the Cecil yard.