PRIX DE L'ARC DE TRIOMPHE TRENDS 2014

The Qatar Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe, one of the sporting highlights of the year, takes place at Longchamp on Sunday 5th October. Generally considered as the most prestigious horse race run on the flat in Europe, it has been won by some true greats in the past 15 years including Montjeu, Sinndar, Dalakhani, Zarkava and 5 years ago the mighty Sea The Stars. Last year’s victor, Treve, will look to become the first horse since Alleged, in 1978, to win back to back Arc’s.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 8-7-69
4yo: 2-8-50
5yo: 0-2-22
6yo+: 0-4-14
3yos (8-7-69) have a superior record to the older horses (combined 2-14-86).

Pedigree


9 of 10 winners (last 8) were sired by a horse with a stamina index of 8.2F to 11.0F.
Both winners whose sire had a stamina index of 11.0F+ had a dam sire with a stamina index of less than 11.0F.

Gender


Fillies & mares (4-5-32) have gained 4 win & 5 places from 32 runners. Winning 4 of the last 6 (including the last 3) and filling first 3 home in 2011.
3yos fillies (3-3-15) have a better record than those aged 4+ (1-2-17). 5 of 6 3yos fillies to make frame had won an Oaks in Europe (France, Ireland, England or Italy).
All three 3yo female winners, Treve, Danedream & Zarkava, were multiple group 1 winners that year. 2 of 3 ran in Prix Marcel Boussac at previous year’s Arc meeting and both French-trained 3yo filly winners had won their maiden over 1M at Longchamp in September of previous year.

Recent/Past Form


7 of 10 winners won last time (2 other finished 3rd in an Arc Trial and other 5th in King George)
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last 3 starts
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 120+ on last 2 starts
9 of 10 winners had run in the last 35 days
10 of 10 winners had won at least 40% of their races that season
7 of 10 winners were course winners (3 exceptions had yet to run at Longchamp)
9 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (7 had won more than one, exception was 3rd on only group 1 start)
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F (exception 3rd in Prix Niel last time)
9 of 10 winners had won a race worth at least 170K
10 of 10 winners were having their first start in the race


3 of 8 winners aged 3 won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo (one exception was unraced as 2yo, 3 others won maiden on only start at 2)

Arc Trials


Prix Niel winner (Ectot): 0115534004 (2-1-10)
Prix Vermeille winner (Baltic Baroness): 617991 (2-0-6)
Prix Foy winner (Ruler Of The World): 07800722 (0-2-8)
3 of 5 winning 3yo colts ran in the Prix Niel, finishing 1311
3 of 4 winning fillies ran in Prix Vermeille last time, finishing 131
horses that ran in the Prix Niel: 00111853538d74600000874 (3-3-22)
horses that ran in the Prix Vermeille: 761075032099511 (3-1-14)
horses that ran in the Prix Foy: 0748429700000205070200092 (0-4-25)

Other Races


Previous season's winner (Treve): 330 (0-2-3)
Irish Champion Stakes winner (The Grey Gatsby): 1104 (2-0-4)
Epsom Derby winner (Australia): 5501177 (2-1-7)
Grand Prix de Paris winner (Gallante): 10183468 (2-1-8)
Prix de Diane winner (Avenir Certain): 71721 (2-1-5)
French 1000 Guineas winner (Avenir Certain): 1 (1-0-1)
Criterium International winner (Ectot): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous season's Prix Des Chenes winner (Ectot): 14 (1-0-2)
Prix Du Lys winner (Guardini): 018 (1-0-3)
Juddmonte International winner (Australia): 716 (1-0-3)
King George winner (Taghrooda): 4174 (1-0-4)
Grosser Preis Von Baden winner (Ivanhowe): 98001 (1-0-5)
Irish Derby winner (Australia): 0156007 (1-0-7)
Takarazuka Kinen winner (Gold Ship): 0322 (0-3-4)
Grand Prix de Saint Cloud winner (Spiritjim): 220770 (0-2-5)
Epsom Oaks winner (Taghrooda): 3 (0-1-1)
Prix Saint-Alary winner (We Are): 73 (0-1-2)
Prix Du Jockey winner (The Grey Gatsby): 050003 (0-1-6)
Prix Greffulhe winner (Prince Gibraltar): 00 (0-0-2)
Yorkshire Oaks winner (Tapestry): 59 (0-0-2)
Prix Hedouville winner (Spiritjim): 90 (0-0-2)
Grand Prix de Chantilly winner (Spiritjim): 068 (0-0-3)
Racing Post Trophy winner (Kingston Hill): 507 (0-0-3)
St Leger winner (Kingston Hill): 50600 (0-0-5)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Juddmonte International, finishing 321
2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Stakes last time, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 15
2 of 5 winning 3yos colts ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 11
2 of 5 winning 3yos colts ran in the Grand Prix de Paris, finishing 11
2 of 3 female 3yo winners ran in Prix de Diane, finishing 11
2 of 3 female 3yo winners ran in Prix Marcel Boussac as 2yos, finishing 16
The only 2 horses to win the Prix Des Chenes & Criterium International as 2yos that went on to run in the Arc as 3yos were Bago (2004) & Dalakhani (2003), both were successful. The unbeaten Ectot did the double as a 2yo and comes into race on back of winning the Prix Niel.

Trainers


French Trained horses: 6-10-78
Irish-trained horses: 2-1-26
British-trained horses: 1-5-33
German-trained horses: 1-1-6
Japanese-trained horses: 0-4-11
Other: 0-0-5
Andre Fabre (2-5-20) and Alain de Royer-Dupre (1-3-14) have both gained 2 wins and multiple places in the past 11 runnings.
Jonathan Pease (1-2-3) has gained 1 win and 2 places from his 3 runners in this since 2004.
Aidan O’Brien (1-1-21) has only won the race once from 21 runners in the last 10 years. First strings have a record of 0-1-9.
Criquette Head-Maarek (1-0-1), John Oxx (1-0-1), Pieter Schiergen (1-0-2), Carlos Laffon Parias (1-0-3) & Michael Stoute (1-0-7) have trained the last 5 winners.

Draw (Only counting runnings with more than 10 runners)
horses drawn bottom half: 8-11-78
horses drawn top half: 1-8-73
Treve (last year) has been the only horse able to win from the top half of the draw, as all the other winners since 2004 have been drawn 8 or below. In general a low draw is a big advantage in the Arc.

Running Style


9 of 10 winners were held up in midfield or rear
The recent trend has been towards hold up horses that have been unleashed from midfield in the straight to go and win the race. But for Orfevre surrendering his lead late on, this would be the last 10 winners coming from behind.

Price


7 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting


Danedream at 20/1 in 2011 & Solemia at 33/1 in 2012 have been the 2 big shocks in past 10 years.
Favourites (2-5-10) have won just 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 5.71.



Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- 3yo who won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo (or were unbeaten at 2)
- 3yo filly that won an Oaks or 3yo colt that finished in first 3 in Prix Niel
- Sired by a horse with stamina index of 8.2F to 11.0F
- Won last time out in last 40 days
- Posted an RPR of 120+ in last 2 runs
- Won a group 1 race worth 170K+
- Won over 1M 4F
- Course winner (or having first run here)
- Having first start in the race
- Finished in first 3 in Prix Niel, Prix Vermeille and/or Judmonte Int’l
- Won the Irish Champion Stakes, Epsom Derby, Prix de Diane or Grand Prix de Paris
- Trained by Andre Fabre, Jonathan Pease, or Alain de Royer-Dupre
- Drawn in bottom half of the stalls (ideally 8 or lower)
- Hold-up horses favoured.