LEOPARDSTOWN CHRISTMAS HURDLE TRENDS 2014

The Squared Financial Christmas Hurdle takes place at Leopardstown on Sunday 28th December as part of the supporting card to the Lexus Chase. It was upgraded from grade 2 to grade 1 status last year. The Lismullen & Hatton’s Grace Hurdles have proven the key races in finding the winner of this in recent years.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-3
5yo: 2-3-15
6yo: 2-4-11
7yo: 3-2-13
8yo: 2-2-13
9yo: 1-1-8
10yo: 0-1-7
11yo+: 0-1-3
No very strong trends on the ages of the winners, though horses aged 5 to 7 have held a slight advantage, having won the last 4.
horses aged 5 to 7: 7-9-39
All other ages: 3-5-34

Gender


Mares (3-1-10) do well in this, gaining 3 wins & 1 place from 10 runners, 13.7% of total runners.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (exception finished 4th in Hatton's Grace last time)
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
7 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 148+ in last 2 runs (last 4 winners posted RPR of 156+ last time)
8 of 10 winners had run in at least 12 hurdles
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F to 3M
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 (exception had won a grade 3 & was 3rd in grade 1)
7 of 10 winners (last 7) were officially rated 145+
3 of 10 winners had previously won here (4 exceptions were placed in a graded hurdle here & 2 others were having first course start)


Other Races


Lismullen Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 4411414 (3-0-7)
Hatton's Grace Hurdle winner (Lieutenant Colonel): 41212 (2-2-5)
Slaney Novice Hurdle winner (Briar Hill): 12 (1-0-2)
Coolmore N.H. Sires Fame And Glory & Sans Frontieres Novice Hurdle winner (Lieutenant Colonel): 23 (0-1-2)
Previous year's Navan Novice Hurdle winner (Briar Hill): 5 (0-0-1)
6 of 10 winners (last 4) ran in the Hatton’s Grace, finishing 214122
5 of 10 winners ran in the World Series Hurdle, finishing 5634P
5 of 10 winners (5 of last 7) ran in Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle, finishing 23112
4 of 10 winners ran in the Lismullen Hurdle, finishing 4111
3 of 10 winners ran in the Boyne Hurdle, finishing 121
3 of 10 winners ran in the Red Mills Trial Hurdle, finishing 512
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing P22
2 of 10 winners ran in the Tara Hurdle last time, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in Galmoy Hurdle, finishing 33
2 of 10 winners ran in World Hurdle, finishing 3P

Trainers


Willie Mullins (2-4-11) won this in 2010 & 2013 and also saddled the 2nd in 2011 and 2nd & 3rd in 2012.
Noel Meade (2-0-7) trained the winner in in 2005 & 2012.

Price


10 of 10 winners were sent off at less than 10/1
8 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting.
The favourite (4-2-10) has won 4 of last 10 renewals but shows a level stakes loss of 1.23.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 5 to 8
- Mares do well
- Finished in first 3 last time in past 40 days
- Posted an RPR of 148+ in 1 or both of last 2 runs (ideally posted RPR of 156+ last time)
- Won over 2M 4F to 3M
- Run at least 12 times over hurdles
- Won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
- Officially rated 145+
- Previously won at Leopardstown (or placed in a graded hurdle here)
- Finished in first 2 in Hatton’s Grace or Tara Hurdle last time
- Finished in first 4 in the Lismullen and/or Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle
- Finished in first 2 in Boyne, Red Mills Trial Hurdle and/or 2013 Christmas Hurdle
- Finished in first 6 in World Series Hurdle at Punchestown Festival 2014
- From the first 3 in the betting.