IRISH 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2015

The Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas takes place at the Curragh on Sunday 24th May. The last 4 winners have come from Britain or were trained by Aidan O’Brien. Aidan O’Brien has trained the winner of this 6 times, however only once with his first string.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 3yo fillies

Breeding


Irish bred: 8-12-99
British bred: 2-4-24
American bred: 0-4-17
German bred: 0-0-1
9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner
6 of 10 winners were by a horse that never won over further than a mile (3 of 4 exceptions were by Galileo)
Galileo progeny: 10307421791 (3-2-11)
Rock Of Gibraltar progeny: 50001 (1-0-5)
Record horses with damsire Indian Ridge: 17193 (2-1-5)

Recent/Past Form


Only 2 of 10 winners had won last time out (5 were unplaced last time)
9 of 10 winners had had 2 to 6 previous starts (exception had 8)
9 of 10 winners had run once or twice that season
10 of 10 winners had won over 7F+
6 of 10 winners had won a group race (2 of others 4 finished 3rd in a group 1 and other 2 had run just twice before)
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a group 1 (3 exceptions yet to run in a group 1)

2yo Races


Highest placed finisher from Moyglare Stud Stakes: 1045191609 (3-0-10)
Prix Marcel Boussac winner (Found): 11 (2-0-2)
Highest placed finisher from Prix Marcel Boussac: 06121179 (3-1-8)
Debutante Stakes winner (Raydara): 8153 (1-1-4)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF 2yo Fillies Maiden winner (Bocca Baciata): 01 (1-0-2)
Silver Flash Stakes winner (Jack Naylor): 59209 (0-1-5)
Flame Of Tara Stakes winner (Jack Naylor): 74 (0-0-2)
C. L. Weld Park Stakes winner (Qualify): 09008507 (0-0-8)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Marcel Boussac, finishing 101
3 of 10 winners ran in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, finishing 311
2 of 10 winners ran in the Debutante Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Rockfel Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in he Weld Park Stakes, finishing 27

3yo Races


Highest placed finisher from 1000 Guineas: 8615002412 (2-2-10)
Derrinstown 1000 Guineas Trial (Kissed By Angels): 3431073 (1-3-7)
Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial (Stormfly): 800304 (0-1-6)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden winner (Outstanding): 57 (0-0-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in the English 1000 Guineas, finishing 6102
3 of 10 winners ran in the French 1000 Guineas last time out, finishing 239
2 of 3 Aidan O'Brien-trained winners ran in Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial, finishing 26

Trainers


Aidan O’Brien (3-5-34) has won 3 of the last 10 however he has sent out 34 runners in the race in the past 10 years (approximately 24.1% of total runners). His first strings have a poor record of 0-2-10.
Dermot Weld (2-3-14) has won the race twice in past 10 years. Both his winners were unplaced in a Curragh maiden on their one run at 2. Both won their previous start and bypassed the French and English 1000 Guineas to run in this (2 of the only 3 winners since 2003 to do so).
Jim Bolger (1-3-15) has saddled the winner and 3 places since 2005.
Mick Channon (1-2-8) trained the winner in 2012.
Jessica Harrington (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners get placed.
Clive Brittain (0-0-1) trained Crimplene to win this in 2000.
British-trained runners (2-4-26) have won 3 of last 11 from 20% of the total runners.

Draw


horses drawn 1 to 4: 4-9-40
horses drawn 5 to 8: 1-8-40
horses drawn 9 to 12: 3-1-34
horses drawn 13 or higher: 2-2-27
No very strong trend on the draw, though horses drawn in stall 1 have done well.
Since 2000, the record of horses drawn in stall 1: 243151122d408202 (3-5-15)

Racing Tactics


7 of 10 winners raced prominently (in first 6) throughout
2 of the 3 winners that were held up, did so on soft or heavy ground.
The 3 winners to come further back all did so from a double-figure stall.

Price


No very strong trend on prices, with 6 winners going off shorter than 7/1 and the other 5 going between 10/1 & 16/1.
Favourites (3-3-10) have won 3 of last 10 & show a £1 level stakes loss of £1.60 since 2005.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sired by a group 1 winner over 1M or shorter (or by Galileo)
- Fillies sired by Galileo or have Indian Ridge as damsire do well
- Run once or twice in 2015
- Won over 7F or further
- Won a listed or group race
- Won or placed in a group 1 (or having first try in group 1)
- First 3 in Marcel Boussac, Debutante, Rockfel and/or Moyglare Stud Stakes as 2yo
- Ran in English or French 1000 Guineas last time (or from Weld stable)
- Trained by Dermot Weld or Aidan O’Brien (but not necessarily his first string)
- British-trained runner that won at 2014 Royal Ascot or won Fillies Mile
- Tends to race prominently.