HENNESSY GOLD CUP TRENDS 2014

The Hennessy Gold Cup takes place at Newbury on Saturday 29th November. Run over 3M 2½F, it’s a grade 3 handicap chase which usually attracts a high class field of staying chasers. In past 10 years, Denman & Bobs Worth have both won this race en route to winning the Cheltenham Gold later in the season.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-2
6yo: 3-9-27
7yo: 5-8-59
8yo: 1-2-24
9yo: 1-5-42
10yo: 0-3-16
11yo+: 0-1-7
6 and 7 year olds have the best record (combined 8-17-86) which compares well to all others ages (combined 2-11-91).
Diamond Edge in 1981 is only horse aged over 9 to have won this in the last 40 years while Denman (in 2009) is the only horse aged older than 8 to have won this in past 10 years, when winning it for second time.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 11-0 or more: 7-11-52
horses carrying less than 11-0: 3-17-125
Higher weights hold the call in this with 7 of the last 9 winners all carrying 11-1 or more, in 2 other years there have only been 3 horses carrying 11-0+, 2 of those 3 were placed.
Top Weight: 91P1313P20 (3-3-10) has gained 3 wins and 3 places in last 8 years, though Denman has twice carried top weight to victory, which slightly skews the top weight statistic.

Official Ratings


horses rated 153 or higher: 4-9-39
horses rated 136 to 152: 6-13-119
horses rated 126 to 135: 0-3-19
The last 9 winners were officially rated 145 or higher.
horses rated 160+ have gained 3 wins & 2 places from 12 runners.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had had 0 or 1 run since 1st June
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was placed in previous year's Hennessy)
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 151+ on last completed start (2 others posted RPR of 139+)
9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 14 times over fences (exception placed in previous renewal)
8 of 10 winners had won at least 40% of their chase starts
7 of 10 winners had run in 0 or 1 previous handicap chases


10 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher over fences
9 of 10 winners (last 7) had won a graded chase
6 of 10 winners were second season chasers (other 4 were 3rd or 4th season chasers)
6 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M4F or further at Newbury (other 4 were having first chase start here)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Triolo D'Alene): 30 (0-1-2)
Highest placed RSA finisher to run in this: 161P22P18 (3-2-9)
IJF 50th Anniversary Novices' Chase winner (Smad Place): P110 (2-0-4)
Ryman Stationery Novices' Chase winner (Sam Winner): 3U24 (0-3-4)
December Novices' Chase winner (Black Thunder): 2P2 (0-2-3)
Bet365 Gold Cup winner (Hadrian's Approach): 672 (0-1-3)
Previous Worcester Nov Chase winner (Just A Par): 350 (0-1-3)
Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Don Cossack): PP (0-0-2)
United House Gold Cup winner (What A Warrior): U6 (0-0-2)
Majordomo Hospitality Handicap Chase winner (Monbeg Dude): 0P (0-0-2)
Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase winner (Many Clouds): 80 (0-0-2)
Coolmation Graduation Chase winner (Hadrian's Approach): 56 (0-0-2)
4 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in RSA Chase last time, finishing 11P1
3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in previous season's Feltham, finishing 253
2 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in IJF 50th Anniversary Novices' Chase, finishing 11
2 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Berkshire Novice Chase, finishing 11
2 of 4 3rd/4th season chaser winners ran in RSA at novices, finishing 14
2 of 4 3rd/4th season chaser winners ran in United House Gold Cup, finishing 63

Running Style


9 of 10 winners (last 9) raced in touch or with the leaders throughout

Trainers


Nicky Henderson (3-3-12) saddled the winner in 2005, 2012 & 2013 and a placed finisher in 2006 & 2010.
Paul Nicholls (2-7-24) has won the race 3 times in past 11 years, including twice with Denman (07 & 09) and may have won it a fourth time but for Big Buck’s unseating 2 out in 2008.
David Pipe (1-3-10) trained a winner and 3 placed finishers in past 7 years.
Evan Williams (1-0-4) trained the winner in 2006.
Philip Hobbs (0-3-10) last trained the winner in 2001 and trained 2nd & 3rd in 2011.
Emma Lavelle (0-1-2), Mouse Morris (0-1-2) & Colin Tizzard (0-1-3) have each saddled a placed finisher in past 2 renewals.

Price


8 of 10 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter
No massive trend on the prices though the first 4 in the betting have been responsible for 7 of the last 10 winners.
Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 renewals in past 10 years & show a level stakes profit of 2.00.



Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 6 or 7
- Carrying 11-0+
- Officially rated 145 to 161
- Run in 3 to 14 chases (winning at least 40%) or finished in first 6 in a previous Hennessy
- Won a class 2 or better chase over 3M+
- Previously won a graded chase
- Finished in the first 3 last time out
- Posted an RPR of 151+ on last completed chase start
- Previously run in 0 or 1 handicap chase (no more than 8)
- Won a chase at Newbury over 2M 4F+ (or having first chase run here)
- Second season chaser that ran in last season’s RSA and/or Feltham Chase or
- Third or fourth season chaser that ran in United House Gold Cup last time
- Tends to race prominently
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, David Pipe or Philip Hobbs.