day 4 cheltenham 2015 trends
Triumph Hurdle
County Hurdle
AB Hurdle
Cheltenham Gold Cup
Foxhunters Chase
Conditionals Hurdle
Grand Annual
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CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP TRENDS 2015
The Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup takes place on Friday, 13th March and is highlight of the Festival for many. The fourth day is generally sold out in anticipation of a great spectacle and the race rarely fails to deliver. The key trends for the race seem to point to a horse aged 6 to 9 that finished 1st or 2nd in either the King George or Lexus this season.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-0-3
7yo: 3-5-24
8yo: 3-4-40
9yo: 3-5-36
10yo: 0-4-27
11yo: 0-2-10
12yo+: 0-0-3
horses aged 6 to 9 (10-14-103) have won the last 10 runnings.
horses aged 10+ (0-6-40) have gained no wins and 6 places in the last 10 runnings from approximately 28% of the total runners.
5 of 6 placed finishers aged 10+ had won a previous Gold Cup or had won the previous season’s Aintree Grand National. The other had won 2 Thyestes Chases.
Breeding
Irish Bred: 7-9-70
French Bred: 3-8-46
British Bred: 0-3-24
German Bred: 0-0-2
American Bred 0-0-1
Irish and French bred horses have dominated, winning the last 10, though they have represented 81.1% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won last time out (3 exception were 2nd in Lexus, 5th in King George & 6th in Irish Hennessy)
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season (exception has won Hennessy Gold Cup on only run that season)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 162+ on last completed start (1 of 2 exceptions posted an RPR of 177 on penultimate start)
9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 167+ in last 2 starts
9 of 10 winners had run in 5 to 11 chases in their career (exception was Kauto Star winning it a second time)
9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (exception was Kauto Star's second win)
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception finished 2nd in Lexus on only previous try at 3M+)
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase
6 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase that season (4 exceptions were Imperial Commander beaten a short head in grade 1 Betfair Chase, War Of Attrition 2nd in grade 1 Lexus, Bobs Worth won Hennessy Gold Cup on only run that season & Lord Windermere last year)
8 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 3 at the Festival (1 exception was Kauto Star who fell when favourite in the Queen Mother and other was Synchronised who was having first run at Festival)
6 of 6 second season chaser winners had won a grade 1 novice chase
Previous Cheltenham Form
Returning Gold Cup winner (Lord Windermere): 22FP35 (0-3-6)
Highest placed finisher from last year to return: 35022FP345 (0-4-10)
Ryanair Chase winner (Dynaste): 1 (1-0-1)
RSA Chase winner: P19511 (3-0-6)
Jewson Novice Chase winner (Taquin De Seuil): 2 (0-1-1)
4 of 10 winners ran in the RSA Chase, finishing 1311
2 of 10 winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 27
Only 1 of 10 winners ran in the previous Gold Cup, finishing 2
9 of 10 winners ran in a chase at the previous Festival (exception was Synchronised in 2012, who was placed in Midlands National on the Saturday of Cheltenham week the previous year)
8 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 3 at the Festival (1 exception was Kauto Star who fell when favourite in the Queen Mother and other was Synchronised who was having first run at Festival)
Other races
King George winner (Silviniaco Conti): 1121F1P34 (4-2-8)
Lexus Chase winner (Road To Riches): 0013715 (2-1-7)
Denman Chase winner: 1183F (2-1-5)
Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Many Clouds): 76182010 (2-1-8)
JN Wine Champion Chase winner (Road To Riches): P013 (1-1-5)
Betfair Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): 012PFPPF (1-1-8)
Clonmel Oil Chase winner (Champagne Fever): 1 (1-0-1)
John Durkan Memorial Chase winner (Don Cossack): 41 (1-0-2)
Star Chase winner (Don Cossack): 1P (1-0-2)
Previous season's Steel Plate And Sections Novices' Chase winner (Taquin De Seuil): 1P5 (1-0-3)
Bobbyjo Chase winner: 372 (0-2-3)
Thyestes Chase winner (Djakadam): 2 (0-1-1)
Previous season's Killiney Novice Chase winner (Djakadam): 2 (0-1-1)
Growise Champion Novice Chase winner (Carlingford Lough): 0P2 (0-1-3)
Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Boston Bob): P34 (0-1-3)
Previous season Topaz Novice Chase winner (Carlingford Lough): F37 (0-1-3)
Previous season's PJ Moriarty Chase winner (Ballycasey): 3F5 (0-1-3)
Mildmay Novice Chase winner (Holywell): PF (0-0-2)
Colin Parker Memorial Chase winner (Many Clouds): PU (0-0-2)
Murphy Group Handicap Chase winner (Sam Winner): 05P (0-0-3)
Aintree Bowl winner (Silviniaco Conti): P54 (0-0-3)
Bet Bright Cup winner (Many Clouds): 52687 (0-1-5)
Irish Hennessy Gold Cup winner: 004P2 (0-1-6)
5 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 11151
4 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase, finishing 2117
9 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus or King George that season (7 of 9 were 1st or 2nd)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 1U2
2 of 10 winners ran in the Denman Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 21
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the John Durkan Memorial, finishing 15
2 of 3 Irish-trained winner ran in previous year's Ryanair Novice Chase, finishing 1B
3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 118
2 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Feltham Novice Chase, finishing 13
2 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Berkshire Novice Chase, finishing 11
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-6-27) has trained 3 of the last 8 winners of this and seen a third of his runners make the places since 2004.
Nicky Henderson (2-2-8) trained the winner in 2011 & 2013.
Jonjo O’Neill (1-2-7) won this in 2012 with Synchronised and has also filled 2 other places.
Jim Culloty (1-0-1) won it last year with Lord Windermere, while Mouse Morris (1-0-3) trained War Of Attrition to win the race in 2006.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-5) trained Imperial Commander to win in 2010.
Willie Mullins (0-3-6) has found 3 places from 6 runners, while David Bridgwater (0-2-3) has saddled The Giant Bolster to finish 2nd, 4th & 3rd in past 3 runnings.
Noel Meade (0-0-2) has seen his last 2 runners finish unplaced, though he did saddle Harbour Pilot to place in back to back renewals in 2003 & 2004.
The Pipe Stable (0-0-8) and Phillip Hobbs (0-0-4) have each failed to saddle a runner that made the frame in the past 10 runnings from 13 collective runners.
Irish trained runners (3-4-22) won the race in 2005 and filled the first 3 positions in 2006 but have struggled in next few years, failing to fill a single place between 2007 & 2012. Things have brightened up recently though as Sir Des Champs finished 2nd in 2013 & Lord Windermere & On His Own finished 1-2 in 2014.
Price
9 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
Prior to Lord Windermere’s win last year, there has been no winner priced bigger than 8/1 since 2000 has been 8/1. However in the past 10 years horses priced 14/1 or bigger have filled 9 of 20 places (1 winner, 3 seconds and 5 thirds).
Favourites (5-3-10) have taken 5 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 8.25.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 to 9
- Irish or French bred
- Had 5 to 11 career chase starts (2 to 5 this season)
- Finished in first 2 in all chase starts over 2M 6F+ this season
- Second or third season chaser (or previous winner of Gold Cup)
- Won last time out and posted RPR of 162+
- Posted an RPR of 167+ in last 2 chase starts
- Won over 3M+
- Won a grade 1 chase (ideally this season)
- Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase at 2014 Festival
- Finished in first 2 in Hennessy Gold Cup, Betfair and/or Denman Chase
- Finished 1st or 2nd in either the Lexus or King George this season
- From first 3 in the betting (favourite does especially well)
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson.
Re: day 4 cheltenham 2015 trends
TRIUMPH HURDLE TRENDS 2015
The JCB Triumph Hurdle kicks off the final day of the Cheltenham Festival. The race has changed slightly in recent years as the size of the field has decreased with the introduction of the Fred Winter handicap hurdle for 4yos. In the past 10 years the race has been tended to be won by a horse prominent in the market and come from one of the big British yards, though the last 2 winners of the race were both trained in Ireland.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age
Race for 4yos
Gender
Fillies (0-1-10) have gained 1 place from 10 runners in past 10 runnings but haven’t won this since 2000.
Breeding
Irish bred: 5-11-71
French bred: 2-4-53
British bred: 2-3-48
USA bred: 1-1-8
German bred: 0-1-6
Japan bred: 0-0-1
8 of 10 winners were by a group 1-winning sire (1 exception’s sire hadn’t run in a group 1 and other was a group 2 winner, beaten a short head in Queen Anne)
6 runners out of a Kahyasi mare (2-2-6) to run in this finished: 3rd-8th-4th-3rd-1st-1st, the only one to finish outside top 4 was sent off at 100/1.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners ran the past 18 to 45 days
7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 of 3 exceptions place in grade 1 Spring Juvenile)
9 of 10 winners had won at class 3 or higher (exception 2nd in a grade 1 last time)
8 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race 7+ lengths (2 exceptions gained their one hurdles win by over 2 lengths)
10 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts
9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted RPR of 132+ in 1 or both of last 2 runs (8 of 10 did so last time)
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times over hurdles (exception won grade 2 Adonis on one hurdles run)
8 of 10 winners had run on the flat
6 of 6 winners that ran on flat in Britain or Ireland were officially rated 82 or higher
8 of 8 British-trained winners had won a hurdle at Newbury, Kempton or Market Rasen
The 10 winners had collectively run in 30 hurdles races prior to winning winning this, they finished in first 3 in 28 of those 30 starts (2 exceptions were on hurdles debuts).
Other Races
Adonis Hurdle winner: 1F4119 (3-0-6)
Finesse Juvenile Hurdle winner (Peace And Co): 3122836 (1-4-7)
Prestbury Juvenile Novice Hurdle winner (Golden Doyen): 42127426 (1-3-8)
Spring Juvenile Hurdle winner (Petite Parisienne): 68073902213 (1-3-10)
Championhats.co.uk Juvenile Hurdle winner (Karezak): 1292 (1-2-4)
Triumph Hurdle Trial winner (Hargam): 8519492 (1-2-7)
Betfred Fun And Friendly Juvenile Hurdle winner (Top Notch): 13 (1-1-2)
Sodexo Juvenile Hurdle winner (Top Notch): 103F (1-1-4)
Bar One Racing Juvenile Hurdle winner (Kalkir): 01 (1-0-2)
Watch Racing UK on Sky Channel 432 Juvenile Hurdle winner (Blue Atlantic): 01 (1-0-2)
Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Juvenile Hurdle winner (Pain Au Chocolat): 1P (1-0-2)
Wicks Waste Service Juvenile Hurdle winner (Vosne Romanee): 801 (1-0-3)
Blackmore Building Juvenile Hurdle winner (Zarib): P1079 (1-0-5)
Finale Juvenile Novice Hurdle winner (Bristol De Mai): 5227 (0-2-4)
Festival Hospitality On Sale 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle winner (Chatham House Rule): 83020B (0-2-6)
Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle winner (Fiscal Focus): 0204683 (0-2-7)
Scottish Triumph Hurdle winner (Hargam): P0438 (0-1-5)
Paddy Power Number 1 for Live Streaming 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle winner (Theophilus): 00 (0-0-2)
William Hill Bet & Watch Juvenile Hurdle winner (Bivouac): 64 (0-0-2)
Chatteris Fen Trophy 32Red Juvenile Hurdle winner (Arabian Revolution): 54P7 (0-0-4)
Q Associates Juvenile Hurdle winner (Old Guard): 5600P4 (0-0-6)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Adonis Hurdle last time, finishing 111
3 of 10 winners (last 3) ran in Spring Juvenile Hurdle last time, finishing 312
2 of 10 winners ran in Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 22
3 of 10 winners gained their first win over hurdles in a 2M 1/2F juvenile hurdle at Newbury
3 of 10 winners gained first hurdles win at Market Rasen
All 4 Irish-trained winners in past 20 years had finished 1st or 2nd in Spring Juvenile on previous start
Trainers
British-trained runners: 8-14-125
Irish-trained runners: 2-6-56
French-trained runners: 0-0-6
Between 2003 & 2012, British-trained runners had won all 10 runnings, however the past 2 renewals have gone to the Irish.
The bigger British yards have fairly dominated this race with Alan King (2-4-12), Paul Nicholls (2-2-15), Nicky Henderson (2-2-12) & Philip Hobbs (1-2-4) each supplying 2 of the last 11 winners.
Gordon Elliot (1-0-5) & John Quinn (1-0-6) have both trained the winner in past 3 years.
Dermot Weld (0-2-3) trained the runner-up in 2011 & 2012.
Charlie Mann (0-1-1) & Evan Williams (0-1-3) have each saddled 1 placed finisher.
Willie Mullins (0-1-11) trained the winner in 2002 but has only seen one of his 11 runners in past 10 years make the frame.
Price
Since the introduction of the Fred Winter Juvenile H’cap Hurdle to the Festival in 2005 this race has been won by one of the first 4 in the betting 8 of 10 years. The 2 winners to be priced 10/1 or bigger had been beaten in the Spring Juvenile on previous start.
Favourites (1-4-10) have only won 1 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 5.50.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sired by a group 1 winner
- Posted an RPR of 132+ last time out
- Won last time out in the past 18 to 45 days (or placed in a grade 1)
- Run 2 to 6 times over hurdles
- Won at least half their hurdles starts and never finished outside first 3 when completing
- Won at class 3 or higher
- Won a graded hurdle (or having first run in a graded hurdle)
- Won a hurdles race by 7 or more lengths
- Has run on the flat & officially rated 82+
- Won the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle
- Finished in first 3 in Wensleydale and/or Spring Juvenile Hurdle
- Won a Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury, Market Rasen or Kempton
- Trained by Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Philip Hobbs or Paul Nicholls or in Ireland
- From first 4 in the betting.
Re: day 4 cheltenham 2015 trends
ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2015
The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle, which is run over 3 miles, was first run as a grade 2 in 2005 but was elevated to grade 1 status in 2008. There will be many horses that will hold entries in this as well as the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle and so the picture for this race will become clearer once the declarations for the Neptune come out.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:
Age
5yo: 2-5-36
6yo: 5-7-78
7yo: 3-4-45
8yo+: 0-4-21
All 10 winners of this race has been aged 5 to 7, though that age group represented 88.3% of the total runners, so not surprising. Both 5yo winners were French bred.
Gender
Mares (0-1-8) have gained 1 place from their 8 runners, all of whom were priced 12/1 or above.
Breeding
Irish bred: 7-15-122
French bred: 3-2-24
British bred: 0-2-29
German bred: 0-1-3
American bred: 0-0-2
Irish bred have won 7 of 10 however they have represented 67.8% of total runners whereas French bred horse have a proportionally better record, winning 3 of 10 from 13.3% of total runners.
King's Theatre progeny: 10P612F8 (2-1-8) - one other winner out of a King's Theatre mare
Oscar progeny: 09160P8412 (2-1-10)
Video Rock progeny: 11 (2-0-2)
Bob Back progeny: 412 (1-1-3)
Martaline progeny: 01 (1-0-2)
Presenting progeny: 97001 (1-0-5)
Roselier progeny: 33P (0-2-3)
Old Vic progeny: P203 (0-2-4) - one winner out of an Old Vic mare
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 last time (1 exception was 4th in the grade 2 Boyne Hurdle against seasoned hurdlers & other was 3rd in a grade 2 Slaney novice hurdle)
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in last 2 starts
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 145+ last time (2 exceptions posted career high RPR of 139)
9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times over hurdles in GB & Ireland
7 of 10 winners had won a graded hurdle (3 exceptions finished in first 3 in a grade 2)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
9 of 10 winners had not run on the flat (exception had run in non-thoroughbred races in France)
5 of 7 British-trained winners had won at Cheltenham (1 exception was 7th in previous season's Triumph Hurdle & other was having course start)
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners had won a hurdles race at Galway
Other Races
Classic Novice Hurdle winner (Ordo Ab Chao): 1F11 (3-0-4)
Bristol Novice Hurdle winner (Blaklion): 3141P2F (2-2-7)
Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle winner (Thomas Brown): 1 (1-0-1)
Cliona's Foundation Novice Hurdle winner (Martello Tower): 1PU (1-0-3)
Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle winner (Outlander): 022 (0-2-3)
Navan Novice Hurdle winner (No More Heroes): 3P2F (0-2-4)
Surehaul Mercedes-Benz Novice Hurdle winner (Roi Des Francs): 3 (0-1-1)
Paddy Power Collect Winnings Novice Hurdle winner (Martello Tower): 2P8U (0-1-4)
W.T. O'Grady Memorial EBF Novice Hurdle winner (Measureofmydreams): 47 (0-0-2)
Excel Signs Novices' Hurdle winner (Beast Of Burden): 04 (0-0-2)
Lawlor's Hotel Slaney Novice Hurdle winner (Mckinley): 0PF (0-0-3)
Cork Stayers Novice Hurdle winner (Black Hercules): 06P (0-0-3)
River Don Novice Hurdle winner (Caracci Apache): F8587 (0-0-5)
Hyde Novice Hurdle highest placed finisher to run in this: 3111P4 (3-1-6)
Record of horse that won or placed in Hyde Novice Hurdle: 32111P104 (4-2-9)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Hyde Novice Hurdle, finishing 1223
4 of 7 British-trained winners ran in the Classic Novice Hurdle, finishing 6111
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in the Bristol Novice Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in the Prestige Novice Hurdle, finishing 21
Trainers
Jonjo O’Neill (2-0-2) has seen both his runners taste success in this race (2006 & 2007).
Charles Byrnes (1-2-5) has saddled a winner and 2 places from 5 runners (one other brought down).
Nicky Henderson (1-1-7) trained the first 2 home in 2011 while Alan King (1-1-9) has also gained a win and a place from his runners in this.
Lucinda Russell (1-0-1), Rebecca Curtis (1-0-5) & Noel Meade (1-0-7) have won last 3 runnings.
Willie Mullins (0-3-13) has had filled a place in 3 of last 6 renewals, although the last 2 favourites to be beaten in this race came from the Mullins yard.
Margaret Mullins (0-1-1), Sandra Hughes yard (0-1-4), Colin Tizzard (0-1-5), Emma Lavelle (0-1-5) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-9) have all saddled a placed finisher in one of the last 4 runnings.
Irish trained horses (3-7-48) have done well enough winning 3 of last 10 from approximately 26.7% of total runners.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced 9/1 or below & came from first 5 in the betting
Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 of the 10 runnings but show a level stakes loss of 0.37.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the 10 previous runnings you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 or 7 (or a 5yo French bred)
- Irish or French bred
- Ideally sired by King's Theatre, Oscar, Video Rock or Bob Back
- Finished in first 2 last time out
- Posted an RPR of 145+ last time
- Had 3 to 6 runs over hurdles in GB & Ire
- Has won a graded hurdle
- Won over 2M 4F+
- Finished in first 3 in Hyde Novice Hurdle
- Finished in first 2 in Bristol, Prestige and/or Classic Novice Hurdle
- Had not run on the flat
- Course winner (or trained in Ireland)
- Trained by Jonjo O’Neill or Charles Byrnes
- Priced 9/1 or shorter.
Re: day 4 cheltenham 2015 trends
CHELTENHAM FOXHUNTER CHASE TRENDS 2015
The Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup is one of the lower quality races that takes place at the Cheltenham Festival. It is a class 2 chase that takes place over the same course and distance as the Gold Cup, directly after the big race. It offers horses that have been running mostly in point to points a serious chance of Festival glory.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-0-2
7yo: 2-0-20
8yo: 2-4-40
9yo: 5-6-47
10yo: 1-3-40
11yo: 0-6-43
12yo: 0-1-31
13yo+: 0-0-13
horses aged 6 to 9 have a combined record of 9-10-109
horses aged 10 or older have a combined record of 1-10-127
The last winner aged older than 10 to win was Earthmover (2004), who had won the race as a 7yo and also finished 4th the previous year.
Breeding
Irish Bred: 7-11-128
French Bred: 2-4-34
German Bred: 1-0-6
British Bred: 0-5-65
Other: 0-0-3
No very strong trends to be found from where the winners have been bred, though there has been no British bred winner in past 10 years, despite them representing over 27.5% of total runners.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 times under rules since August
8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out
9 of 10 winners (last 7) won 1 or both of last 2 completed starts
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 5) posted an RPR of 133+ last time (2 others won a point to point)
9 of 10 winners ran in the past 35 days
7 of 10 winners had won at least 2 chases under rules (3 exceptions had run in less than 7 chases)
10 of 10 winners had run in 3 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 3 or better (exception had yet to run in better than class 6)
8 of 10 winners had previously run in a point to point
Other Races
Highest placed finisher from previous year to return: 602048U31U (1-2-10)
Donohoe Marquees Champion Hunters Chase winner (On The Fringe): 2141 (2-1-4)
Joseph R. O'Reilly Memorial Hunters Chase winner (Hit Fix): 21U1 (2-1-4)
Stratford Foxhunters Champion Hunters' Chase winner (Paint The Clouds): 1 (1-0-1)
Silks @DownRoyal Hunters Chase winner (Oscar Barton): P3 (0-1-2)
Betfred Keep It Fun Walrus Open Hunters' Chase winner (Pearlysteps): 88F80U3P (0-1-8)
Northern Area Point To Point Scottish Foxhunter Chase winner (Current Event): PP (0-0-2)
Crabbie's Supporting Hillsborough Families Foxhunters winner (Warne): P0U (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in Punchestown Racing Post Champion Hunter Chase, finishing 3011
3 of 10 winners ran in Stratford Foxhunter Champ Chase, finishing 216
4 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Raymond Smith Memorial Hunter Chase, finishing F111
3 of 5 Irish-trained winners (last 3) ran in previous year's Jospeh O'Reilly Hunter Chase, finishing 1F1
2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Arctic Tack Hunter Chase, finishing 4P
2 of 5 Irish-trained winners (last 2) ran in Silks@Down Royal Hunter Chase, finishing 22
Racing Tactics
5 of 10 winners led or raced prominently
5 of 10 winners (last 4) were held up in midfield or in rear
Trainers
Rodger Sweeney (2-0-2) won this race in 2012 & 2013 with Salsify, who may return this year, attempting to win a third.
Paul Nicholls (1-0-10) trained back to back winners in 2004 & 2005 but his last 7 runners have all been unplaced.
James Mangan (0-2-4) trained Oscar Delta to finish 3rd in 2011 & 2012 and he probably would have won this in 2013 but for jinking and unseating his jockey after the last.
Alan Hill (0-2-6) has also saddled a couple of placed finishers.
Colin McBratney (0-1-1) trained Carsonstown Boy to finish 2nd in 2014.
Enda Bolger (0-1-2) has seen all 6 of his runners make the first 6 since 1998, only 2 placed though.
Irish trained runners (5-10-48) have won 5 of the last 10, including the last 4, from approximately 20.3% of the total runners.
4 of last 6 Irish-trained winners had won a point to point that season (one other was 2nd in a point to point). 2 of 6 came into the race on the back of winning a hunter chase in Britain, while the other 4 ran in Raymond Smith Memorial that season, three winning and other unseating when going well.
Price
No strong trends on prices with 4 of 10 winners priced 20/1 or bigger and the other 6 were priced shorter than 8/1.
Favourites (3-2-12) have won 3 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 0.25. 5 of 6 Irish-trained favourites since 2002 have been beaten, 4 were unplaced and the one winner was Salsify in 2013, who was a lucky winner.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 7 to 9
- Irish, French or German bred
- Finished in the first 3 last time in the past 35 days (ideally won)
- Posted an RPR of 133+ last time
- Won 1 or both of last 2 completed starts
- Run no more than 3 times under rules this season
- Has won 2+ chases under rules (or run in less than 7 chases)
- Run in no more than 3 handicap chases
- Won over 3M+
- Won or placed in a class 3 or better chase
- Finished in first 3 in 2014 Stratford Foxhunter and/or Irish Champion Hunter Chase
- Finished in first 2 Raymond Smith Memorial, Jospeh O'Reilly and/or Silks@DownRoyal Hunter Chase
- Trained in Ireland (that won a point to point this season).
Re: day 4 cheltenham 2015 trends
COUNTY HURDLE TRENDS 2015
The Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle is a grade 3 handicap run over 2M 1F. It is now the second race on day 4 and is always a wide open affair. Paul Nicholls and Irish trainers have been responsible for the last 9 winners.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 5-8-56
6yo: 3-5-77
7yo: 0-12-68
8yo: 1-2-36
9yo: 1-1-20
10yo+: 0-2-15
horses aged 5 or 6: 8-13-133
horses aged 7 or older: 2-17-139
5 year olds have a super record in the race. From approximately 20.5% of the runners they have won 5 of last 10.
In the past six years 24 of 28 places were filled by horses aged 5 to 7 (2 of 4 exceptions had finished in first 5 in a previous running of this race)
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 11-2 or more: 0-4-56
horses carrying 10-10 to 11-1: 6-9-81
horses carrying 10-9 or less: 4-16-135
8 of 10 winners (last 6) carried 10-5 to 11-1
It is worth noting that 3 of the 6 horses to win carrying 10-10+ had finished in the first 3 in a class 1 handicap hurdle or a grade 2 hurdle that season and 3 others had won a class 2 handicap hurdle worth 10K+ in their previous 3 starts.
Spirit Leader (2003) has been the only winner in past 15 years to carry more than 11-1.
Record of horses allotted a top weight of 11-8+ in last 10 renewals is 00000050004 (0-1-11)
horses carrying a penalty: 025106050 (1-1-9), level stakes loss of 5.00.
Official Ratings
horses rated 141 or higher: 0-6-68
horses rated 130 to 140: 9-19-166
horses rated 129 or lower: 1-5-38
horses officially rated 130 to 140 have won the last 9 renewals and accounted for 27 of 36 places in the last 9 years.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
7 of 10 winners (last 5) posted a career high RPR of 130+ last time
10 of 10 winners had run earlier that calendar year
10 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times since August
10 of 10 winners were first or second season hurdlers
5 of 6 Irish-trained winners were 2nd season hurdlers
3 of 4 British-trained winners (last 3) had run in a novice hurdle earlier that season
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in 1 to 7 handicap hurdles
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles (5 had yet to win one)
7 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher hurdle (3 exceptions had finished 3rd in Boylesports Hurdle or Betfair Hurdle)
4 of 10 winners had previously run at the Festival, all 3 unplaced (2 in Fred Winter, 1 Triumph and 1 in Neptune)
Only 1 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham
9 of 10 winners had contested a handicap hurdle worth at least 16K that season
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a hurdle worth 16K+ that season
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Lac Fontana): 000 (0-0-3)
Punchestown Champion 4yo Hurdle winner (Abbysial): 14 (1-1-2)
Ladbrokes Supporting Greatwood H'cap Hurdle winner: 210 (1-1-3)
Harrison James & Hardie Maiden Hurdle winner (Commissioned): 1 (1-0-1)
Betfair Hurdle winner (Violet Dancer): 010 (1-0-3)
Betfred TV Handicap Hurdle winner (Hawk High): 3 (0-1-1)
Mallard Pawnbrokers Novices' Handicap Hurdle winner (Chesterfield): 29 (0-1-2)
Paddy Power Number 1 For Living Streaming H’cap Hurdle winner (Sort It Out): 0020 (0-1-4)
Fred Winter Juvenile H'cap Hurdle winner (Hawk High): 5 (0-0-1)
Triumph Hurdle winner (Tiger Roll): 0 (0-0-1)
Record of horses that finished in top 5 in Boylesports Hurdle: 00001000100015 (3-0-14)
Record of horse that finished in first 5 in Sharp Novices' Hurdle: 071071 (2-0-6)
4 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Boylesports H'cap Hurdle, finishing 3013
2 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Roy Evans/Barry Geraghty Golf Classic H'cap Hurdle, finishing 15
2 of 3 Paul Nicholls-trained winners ran in Sharp Novice Hurdle, finishing 34
2 of 10 winners ran in Michael Scudamore Intermediate Handicap Hurdle, finishing 07
Racing Tactics
9 of 10 winners were held up in rear or in midfield
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-3-17) has trained 4 of the last 11 winners of this race (all winners aged 5 or 6).
Willie Mullins (2-4-13) has won 2 of the last 5 runnings, had no runner in 2012 and saddled the runner-up in 2013, and 2nd & 4th last year. Both his winners had their last 2 starts in the Bar One Racing H’cap Hurdle and Boylesports Hurdle.
Tony Martin (1-1-4) trained the winner in 2013 and the runner-up in 2008.
Tom Mullins (1-0-2) trained Alderwood to win this in 2012.
Philip Hobbs (0-5-16) has seen 5 of his 16 runners make the frame since 2005.
Alan King (0-2-7) has filled 2 places and 2 fifths from 7 runners.
Gordon Elliot (0-2-7) has saddled a placed finisher in 2012 & 2013 and also 5th in 2014, while Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-9) has also saddled a couple of placed finishers in this.
Nicky Henderson (0-2-21) won this race twice in the 90’s but has managed just 2 places from 21 runners since 2005.
Donald McCain (0-0-7), Noel Meade (0-0-8) & David Pipe (0-0-8) have failed to fill a single place from their collective 23 runners.
Irish trained runners (6-8-67) have won 6 of the last 8 runnings.
Price
8 of 10 winners (last 6) were priced between 10/1 and 20/1
Favourites (1-2-12) have won just 1 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 7.50.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 5 or 6 (ideally 5)
- Carrying 10-10 to 11-1
- Officially rated 130 to 140
- Has had a run in 2015
- Run at least 3 times & placed in a handicap hurdle worth 16K+ this season
- First or second season hurdlers
- Run in 1 to 7 handicap hurdles
- Won no more than 2 handicap hurdles (ideally won none)
- Won a class 3 or higher hurdle
- Finished in first 5 in Sharp Novices’, Boylesports and/or Betfair H’cap Hurdles
- Tends to be held up
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or in Ireland (especially by Willie Mullins or Tony Martin).
Re: day 4 cheltenham 2015 trends
MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2015.
The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ handicap hurdle is a class 2 run over 2M 4½F and is one of the newer races of the Festival, having been first run in 2009. All 6 winners were second season hurdlers that were allotted to carry 11-5 or more:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-1-1
5yo: 2-4-36
6yo: 4-6-44
7yo: 0-6-33
8yo: 0-1-16
9yo: 0-0-6
10yo+: 0-0-5
horses aged 4 to 6 have a combined record of 5-11-81
horses aged 7 or older have a combined record of 0-7-60
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 11-7 or more: 1-1-17
horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 5-10-70
horses carrying 10-0 to 10-13: 0-7-54
All 6 winners were allotted 11-5 to 11-10 before jockeys’ claims.
5 of 6 winners to carry 11-2 to 11-5 were ridden by a 3lb claimer.
Top Weight: U000200PF6 (0-1-10)
Official Ratings
horses rated 137 or higher: 4-7-46
horses rated 133 to 136: 2-7-52
horses rated 132 or lower: 0-4-43
6 of 6 winners were officially rated 133 or higher, though the bulk of the runners in the race these days are rated at least that high. The last 3 winners have been rated 139 to 143.
Recent/Past Form
4 of 6 winners (last 4) won last time out
6 of 6 winners posted an RPR of 130+ on last hurdles start (last 4 posted RPR of 137+ last time)
6 of 6 winners had last run between 25 and 55 days ago
5 of 6 winners had 2 to 8 previous hurdles start (exception had 13 previous hurdles starts)
6 of 6 winners were second season hurdlers
6 of 6 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap hurdles (5 had run in 4 or fewer)
6 of 6 winners had won 2 or fewer handicap hurdles (5 had won 0 or 1)
5 of 6 winners had run 3 to 5 times that season (exception won on only start that season)
6 of 6 winners had won over 2M 2F to 2M 6F
6 of 6 winners had won a class 3 or higher hurdle
5 of 6 winners (last 5) had won or placed in a hurdle worth 12K+
5 of 6 winners made racecourse debut in bumper, hurdle or point to point
Other Races
Michael Scudamore Intermediate H'cap Hurdle winner (Morito Du Berlais): 12 (1-1-2)
Brian Kilpatrick Conditional Jockey's H'cap Hurdle winner (Unique De Cotte): 1 (1-0-1)
Surehaul Mercedes Benz Novice Hurdle winner (Roi Des Francs): 1 (1-0-1)
INH Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle winner (Ryansbrook): 1 (1-0-1)
2 of 2 Willie Mullins-trained winners finished in first 2 in a Navan hurdle that season
Trainers
Willie Mullins (2-1-5) has trained the winner in 2011 & 2014, also saddled a placed runner in 2013.
Paul Nicholls (1-4-10) saddled the 16/1 winner in 2013 and the 3rd & 4th last year.
Nicky Henderson (1-4-17) trained the winner in 2009 and also a placed finisher in 3 of last 5 years.
Emma Lavelle (1-0-2) trained the winner in 2010.
Philip Hobbs (0-1-12) & David Pipe (0-1-15) have managed just 2 places between them from their collective 27 runners.
Irish trained runners (2-3-14) have accounted for 2 winner and 3 places from 14 runners, though if you strip out Willie Mullins runners, their record becomes 0-2-9.
Price
5 of 6 winners have been priced 12/1 and 25/1.
Favourites (1-1-6) have gained a win & a place in 6 runnings, level stakes loss of 0.50.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 4 to 6
- Allotted 11-5 to 11-10 (and ideally ridden by 3lb claimer)
- Officially rated 139 to 143
- Run 4 to 5 times this season
- Ideally won last start over hurdles
- Posted an RPR of 137+ on last hurdles start
- Won over 2M 2F to 2M 6F
- Previously run in 2 to 8 hurdles races.
Re: day 4 cheltenham 2015 trends
GRAND ANNUAL CHASE TRENDS 2015
The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup is a grade 3 handicap chase, run over 2M ½F, and is the closing race of the Festival. It had previously been a good race for punters with the majority of the winners coming from the top of the market, though recent shocks, including Oiseau De Nuit springing at 40/1 in 2011, had turned it the way of the bookies. Last year Alderwood struck a blow for the punters, as the festival ended on a good note for favourite backers. Hopefully by this stage we’ll be playing up winnings instead of chasing losses.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 renewals:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-3-6
6yo: 1-4-27
7yo: 2-6-40
8yo: 2-8-54
9yo: 4-5-42
10yo: 1-2-28
11yo+: 0-2-15
The ages of winners have been fairly evenly spread out. 5 year olds have done well since 2003, gaining 1 win and 4 places from 8 runners, however they had previously receive a 4lb weight allowance which has now been scrapped.
Only one horses aged 10+ has won this in past 10 years and that was Tiger Cry, who had finished runner-up in the race 2 years earlier.
Breeding
Irish Bred: 5-9-85
French Bred: 3-9-72
British Bred: 1-7-41
German Bred: 1-2-5
USA bred: 0-2-8
NZ bred: 0-1-2
Swiss bred: 0-0-1
8 of 10 winners were French or Irish bred, though they represented almost 74% of total runners.
All 5 Irish-trained winners were aged 8 to 10.
10 of 12 French bred horses to make the frame were aged 8 or younger (Oiseau De Nuit accounts for both exceptions)
The three German bred 8yos to run in this finished 3rd-2nd-1st
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 10-12 or more: 2-14-78
horses carrying 10-11 or less: 8-16-136
9 of 10 winners carried 10-13 or less. Savello (carrying 11-5 last year) became the first horse since 1998 to carry 11 stone or higher to victory.
Top Weight: 9FF4P2RF55 (0-2-10)
Official Ratings
horses rated 140 or higher: 4-15-97
horses rated 139 or lower: 6-15-117
Between 2000 & 2010, 9 of 10 winners were rated between 129 and 134 but recent trend has been towards higher rated horses. Since 2011, horses rated 138 to 147 have won all 4 and filled 12 of 16 places.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on their last completed chase start (exceptions unplaced in a grade 2 & 50K handicap chase)
8 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 136+ in last 1 or both of last 2 chase starts
9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 5 times since August
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in past 55 days
9 of 10 winners had previously run in 4 to 12 chases
8 of 10 winners had run in 4 or fewer handicap chases
8 of 10 winners had yet to win a handicap chase 1 other had won just 1)
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 in a graded chase (1 exception had finished 6th in previous Grand Annual on only graded chase start, 1 exception 6th G2 November Novice Chase on only graded chases start & 2 others had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 hurdle)
6 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (1 was having first course run and another was placed on both starts here)
7 of 10 winners had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival (only 1 had won)
Other Races
Previous Year's winner (Savello): 0459 (0-1-4)
Record of horses that ran in November Novice Chase that season: 58171 (2-0-5)
Paddy Power Handicap Chase winner (Bold Henry): 922 (0-2-3)
Toteexacta Pick 1,2 Handicap Chase winner (Grey Gold): 3 (0-1-1)
Jim Joel Memorial Trophy H'cap Chase winner (Monetaire): F6U3P (0-1-5)
Jenny Mould Memorial Handicap Chase winner (Sew On Target): 0P276 (0-1-5)
Betfred Goals Galore Handicap Chase winner (Brick Red): F0P6 (0-0-4)
4 of 10 winners had previously run in the Grand Annual, finishing 6F2P
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in previous year's County Hurdle, finishing P1
2 of 10 winners ran in the Country Living handicap chase, finishing 33
2 of 10 winners ran in Ascot Byrne Group Handicap chase, finishing 36
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Red Rum H'cap Chase, finishing 33
2 of 3 British-trained novice winners ran in Royal Gloucestershire Hussars Novice Chase, finishing 4F
2 of 3 British-trained novice winners ran in November Novice Chase, finishing 26
2 of 2 Irish-trained novice winners ran in Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase at Navan, finishing 1S
2 of 4 Irish-trained winners (last 2) ran in Dan Moore Memorial H'cap Chase last time, finishing 29
Racing Tactics
5 of 10 winners raced in midfield
4 of 10 winners were held up towards rear
Only 1 of 10 winners race prominently
Trainers
Nicky Henderson (2-8-34) won the race in 2006 and trained the runner-up in 2008, 2010 & 2013 and the third in 2009. He saddled the 1st, 2nd & 4th in 2012. The race is named after his father and he certainly targets it.
Alan King (1-2-9) has saddled the winner and 2 places in past 10 years.
Paul Nicholls (1-1-19) trained the winner in 2004 & 2007 but his last 10 runners have all been unplaced.
Colin Tizzard (1-1-6) & Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-8) have both saddled the winner and a placed finisher in the past 6 renewals.
Tom Mullins (1-0-1) & Tony Martin (1-0-1) have saddled the past 2 winners.
David Pipe (0-2-8) has filled 2 places with his 8 runners.
Michael Scudamore (0-1-1), Emma Lavelle (0-1-3), Jonjo O'Neill (0-1-3), Noel Meade (0-1-3), Malcolm Jefferson (0-1-4), Ian William (0-1-4) & Venetia Williams (0-1-9) have all saddled 1 placed finisher since 2005.
Irish trained runners (4-4-30) have won 5 of the last 13 runnings (including the last 2). 3 of the last 6 Irish trained winners had run in a hurdle on their previous start, 2 others ran in the Dan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase
Price
Previously this had been a very strong race for horses prominent in the betting with all 8 winners between 1998 & 2005 going off at 7/2 to 8/1. However since 2006 6 of the 9 winners went off at 20/1, 12/1, 16/1, 40/1, 20/1 & 16/1.
Favourites (1-3-11) have won just 1 of the last 10 renewals of this race and show a level stakes loss of 6.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 5 to 9
- Irish bred aged 8 or older or French bred aged 8 or younger
- Carrying less than 11-0 (watch out for horses ridden by talented claimers)
- Officially rated 138 to 147
- Finished in first 3 in last completed chase
- Had last outing in the past 45 days
- Posted an RPR of 136+ in 1 or both of last 2 chase starts
- Had 4 to 12 previous chase starts
- Run in 4 or fewer handicap chases
- Previously won 0 or 1 handicap chase
- Finished in first 3 in a graded chase
- Previously won or placed at Cheltenham
- Ran in last year’s Grand Annual or County Hurdle
- Placed in the Country Living and/or 2014 Red Rum H’cap Chase
- Ran in Royal Gloucestershire and/or November Novice Chase this season
- Irish trained that ran in Dan Moore Memorial H’cap Chase last time
- Tends to be held up
- Trained by Nicky Henderson or Alan King or
- Irish-trained & is a novice chaser (that won at Navan that season) or ran over hurdles last time.
