LINCOLN HANDICAP TRENDS 2014

The William Hill Lincoln Handicap, which will be run at Doncaster on Saturday 29th March, marks the beginning of the British flat turf season. It’s a race steeped in history and is always a lively betting contest, making up the first part of the Spring Double.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 5-6-63
5yo: 2-10-68
6yo: 3-6-49
7yo: 0-4-27
8yo+: 0-4-16
4yo have won 5 of the last 10 runnings
4 to 6 years old have won the last 10 however they have represented approximately 80.7% of the runners.
There has only been one winner aged above 6 in the past 20 years.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 9-1 or more: 4-11-68
horses carrying 8-9 to 9-0: 5-14-106
horses carrying 8-8 or less: 1-5-49
8 of 10 winners carried between 8-9 and 9-4.
horses running with a penalty (1-4-14) have a solid record with 5 of 14 making the frame, and 1 winning.
Top weight: 1700276047 (1-2-10)

Official Ratings
horses rated 99 or higher: 2-10-62
horses rated 90 to 98: 8-19-149
horses rated 89 or lower: 0-1-12
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 95 or higher.
horses rated 95 or higher: 8-22-136
horses rated 94 or lower: 2-8-87

Recent/Past Form
6 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last turf start (4 won)
7 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR on one of their last two starts in Britain
8 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season
9 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 4 starts
10 of 10 winners previously gained 2 to 4 career wins
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps
9 of 10 winners won over 1M+ (exception was 2nd in previous year's Lincoln)
8 of 10 winners had won a race worth 11K+
Only 1 of 10 winners had previously won at the track
9 of 10 winners (last 9) gained their highest grade win in class 2 or 3
1 of 10 winners won a class 1 race (listed)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Levitate): 0903 (0-1-4)
Highest placed finisher from Betfred Bonus King H'cap to run in this: 8420320 (0-4-7)
Ben Marshall Stakes winner (Penitent): 1 (1-0-1)
Wolverhampton Lincoln Trial (Whispering Warrior): 3008 (0-1-4)
Thirsk Hunt Cup winner (Norse Blues): 0 (0-0-1)
Betfred Fun And Friendly Handicap winner (Levitate): 0 (0-0-1)
Whitsun Cup winner (Spa's Dancer): 0 (0-0-1)
Ayrshire Handicap winner (Levitate): 805 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cambridgeshire, finishing 700
2 of 10 winners ran in Royal Hunt Cup, finishing 80
2 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Summer Double International Stakes, finishing 00
5 of 10 winners had last turf run at Newmarket the previous September to November
Since 2000 the record of first 5 from Betfred "Bonus King" H'cap to run in this: 001014301540020320 (3-6-18).

Trainers
John Quinn (2-1-8) trained the winner in 2006 & 2013.
Richard Fahey (1-7-24) trained the winner in 2012 and saddled 2 placed finishers in 2013.
David Barron (0-2-4) has seen 2 of his 5 runners make the frame.
Trainers who have not had much luck in this are Kevin Ryan (0-0-11), Dandy Nicholls (0-0-11), Tim Easterby (0-0-5) and Richard Hannon (0-0-4) have failed to saddle a single placed finisher from 31 combined runners.

Draw (last 10 runnings at Doncaster 2002-2013)
horses drawn 1 to 7: 4-13-70
horses drawn 8 to 14: 4-9-70
horses drawn 15 or higher: 2-8-83
No strong trends on the draw, though the last 3 runnings at Doncaster and ground described as soft were all won by horses drawn in stalls 1 to 3. The Spring Mile, which takes place earlier on the Lincoln card, can often give pointers as where best to be drawn.

Price
No strong trends on prices, 5 of the last 10 runnings have gone to horses in the first 5 while the other 5 winners (including last
Favourites (3-0-11) have won 3 of the last runnings, giving a level stakes profit of 4.33.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 4 to 6 (4yos especially)
- Carrying 8-9 to 9-4
- Officially rated 95 or higher
- Won one of last four races
- Finished in first 3 last time out
- Posted their highest RPR in last two runs
- Having first run of the season
- Won over 1M+ (or placed in this race last year)
- Gained 2 to 4 career wins
- Previously won 1 to 3 handicaps
- Previously won at class 2 or 3 level (but no higher)
- Won a race worth 11K+
- Finished in first 5 from Betfred "Bonus King" H'cap at Newmarket in October
- Trained by John Quinn or Richard Fahey
- If run on soft or heavy ground, drawn 1 to 3.