Farage says UKIP could hold balance of power in 2015

Farage says UKIP could hold balance of power in 2015


Former Tory MP Douglas Carswell becomes the first UKIP candidate to be elected to the House of Commons





Nigel Farage has predicted UKIP could hold the balance of power following the next general election after his party gained its first elected MP.

The UKIP leader said his party had momentum after Douglas Carswell won the Clacton by-election by 12,404 votes.
In Friday's other by-election result, Labour held on to Heywood and Middleton but UKIP slashed its majority to 617.
David Cameron said voting UKIP helped Labour, while Ed Miliband pledged no "complacency" from his party.
After Mr Carswell overturned a 12,068 Conservative majority in the Essex seat to push his old party into second place, Mr Farage said "something big" was happening in British politics.


UKIP leader Nigel Farage: "The whole of British politics has been shaken up"

He added: "We've got a chance here in a general election next year that is likely to be very tight, in an election in which no one party is likely to have a majority. If UKIP can keep this momentum going, we could find ourselves next May in a position where we hold the balance of power."
He said UKIP's second place in Heywood and Middleton was "even more significant" than its win in Clacton, saying the party was now the main opposition to Labour in northern cities.

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Mr Farage also said he expected more Conservative MPs to join UKIP following the defection of Mr Carswell and Mark Reckless, who has triggered a by-election in Rochester and Strood, Kent.
"I think it would be very surprising if more people did not come across", he said.
Mr Farage, who will campaign in Rochester and Strood on Saturday, said he had also spoken to Labour MPs "frustrated that they are not able to change things in British politics".


Ed Miliband said the Tories lost in "their own backyard" in the Clacton by-election

Mr Cameron said the general election would be "the most important in a generation".
He added: "What last night demonstrates is that if you see a big UKIP vote you end up with Ed Miliband as prime minister, Ed Balls as chancellor, Labour in power."
Speaking in Heywood, where he congratulated winning candidate Liz McInnes, Mr Miliband said UKIP voters did not think political parties listened to them or that the country represented them.
He said Labour had changed and realised it was "not prejudiced" to worry about immigration, but said he did not think UKIP could "represent the interests of working people".

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The next election would be a fight against "disillusionment and despair", he predicted.

On a walkabout with Mr Farage in Clacton on Friday morning, Mr Carswell said he did not want to be UKIP leader, and said his old party had "smeared" Mr Reckless since his defection.
In his acceptance speech earlier he told UKIP supporters there was "nothing that we cannot achieve" but urged his party to reach out to as many voters as possible - including first and second generation immigrants - and to "temper" its "passion with compassion".

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Mr Carswell overturned a Conservative majority in Clacton

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Liz McInnes retained Heywood and Middleton for Labour but with a reduced majority

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Nigel Farage and Douglas Carswell were mobbed by the press when they walked around Clacton



Conservative Party Chairman Grant Shapps: "UKIP's victory is a wake-up call"

In the wake of their narrow victory in Heywood, senior figures defended Ed Miliband's leadership but several MPs have expressed concerns about its electoral strategy.
"If last night's vote heralds the start of UKIP's serious assault into Labour's neglected core vote, all bets are off for safer, let alone marginal seats at the next election." former pensions minister Frank Field MP said.
Mr Field said "very large numbers" of Labour voters were unhappy with the way the party was performing, saying this stemmed from their concerns about levels of immigration.
He added that "until we get that central to our message we're in trouble".
But shadow health secretary Andy Burnham said Labour was "more united" than at any time he could remember since his election in 2001 and Ed Miliband had held the party together after it lost power in 2010.

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Analysis by Nick Robinson, BBC political editor

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British politics is now a national contest between at least four parties - Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and UKIP - and arguably five or more if you add the Greens (who are polling as well as the Lib Dems), the SNP (who are threatening Labour's many former Labour strongholds) not to mention Plaid Cymru and Respect.



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Mr Carswell is the first MP to be elected under UKIP's banner although it did have one MP for two years after 2008 after another Tory MP, Bob Spink, defected to them.
It had also looked at one point that UKIP could have been celebrating a double success with the result in the Greater Manchester constituency of Heywood and Middleton - held comfortably by Labour since its creation in 1983 - deemed close enough to warrant a "bundle check" of votes.
But in the end, Labour's Liz McInnes got 11,633 votes - 41% - with UKIP's John Bickley gaining 11,016 - 39%.


Prof John Curtice says Douglas Carswell's Clacton win is the largest increase in vote by any party in any UK by-election



A look back at previous election "first wins"

The Heywood and Middleton contest was prompted by the death of long-serving Labour MP Jim Dobbin last month. His majority at the last general election was 5,971.
The Lib Dems lost their deposit in Clacton, where they were pushed into fifth place behind the Greens with just 453 votes and saw their vote collapse in Heywood and Middleton.
But Energy Secretary Ed Davey said his party was "never going to be in the race" in Clacton and it was "confident" about the future based on its record in government.

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They are looking as if they could which is mad considering they chop and change policy in a matter of days (Handbag tax ? lol). They do pick up the popular vote though. Interesting point made on one of the bbc politics programs last night. The SNP could very well hold the balance of power in the UK elections next year. They would/could form a confidence + supply deal with either of the big two parties. This would also defacto implement the Cameron/Tory policy of English votes for english issues ect...because the Snp voluntarily do not ever vote in english only issues. The Snp would ofcourse do so in return for what they want...more powers/more cash...even mentioned last night that the Tories in particular would even give Scotland control of oil tax and spend in return for the Snp playing ball. I think Milliband and the party are playing a dangerous game basically going for only 35% of the vote. I think Labour could really suffer up hear in Scotland and that may inadvertently bring in a Tory government for the whole of the UK....enabled by the votes in Scotland.....how ironic that would be.
I still "think" the main parties will ignore ukip and this will just piss voters off even more right up until the 2020 election. With all that said the bookies still think Labour will be in power in 2015.......The way they are all acting it actually looks as if none of them want to actually be in power apart from Cameron and Milliband themselves....Oh and Clegg will defect to the Tories after the election lol...you heard it here 1st.

So long as it isn't the friggin' Tories in power I don't care.

I have been wondering if Farage as PM in 2020 is a possibility. You wouldn't think so, but then, the inroads that he's made over the last two years have been impressive.

If it's not Farage, then it could well be Boris Johnson in 2020!!!!!!!!

i would rather charlie sheen as pm than johnson.

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Originally Posted by flumperino

So long as it isn't the friggin' Tories in power I don't care.

I have been wondering if Farage as PM in 2020 is a possibility. You wouldn't think so, but then, the inroads that he's made over the last two years have been impressive.

If it's not Farage, then it could well be Boris Johnson in 2020!!!!!!!!

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Borris Johnston as PM in 2020...fair chance imho. Farage - No chance....I would bet good cash on that never happening.....Yes they get a populist vote...but they don't have the team to enable them to govern. You can't have Farage as PM,Deputy PM/Transport minister/Health secretary and all the other government positions that are "*supposed*" to be filled by people with some knowledge.
* - Donates I know this does not happen but they do at least pretend to be capable lol.

Your post reminds me of a daft idea I had for a political party for people fed up of the current nonsense.

Admit straight up to the voter that you haven't got a clue and may be out of your depth. Your main policy will be to delegate all decision making to MP's of all the other parties. The only purpose of this party is to approve any decisions made by the rest. Let them carry on with the boring day to day stuff as they used to, but veto the fuckers from going against the interests of the electorate.

At the time I was thinking only something as far fetched as that could actually fix our government, but I'm now thinking if UKIP actually had a term I reckon we would see the Conservative B team revert to being the Labour Party which would be a major step to us regaining a functional political system.

So he took 4 million pounds in wages from Europe
Watch the BBC expose of this public schoolboy.

C'mon kids .

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Originally Posted by flypitcher

So he took 4 million pounds in wages from Europe
Watch the BBC expose of this public schoolboy.

C'mon kids .

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Yep that's a fact! All MEP's have been paid the going rate! WOW, I thought i was going to learn something new.