ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

The Coral Eclipse Stakes takes place at Sandown on Saturday, 5th July. A group 1 run over 1M 2F, it is the first chance for the classic generation to take on the older horses at the highest level, though in recent years there have not been many takers from the 3yo ranks, though there looks as if there will be more 3yo contenders this year.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
3yo: 2-3-19
4yo: 4-10-31
5yo: 4-1-18
6yo+: 0-2-11
No strong trends on prices, though this race has not been won by horse aged over 5 in past 100 years.


Both 3yo winners were trained in Ireland & finished in first 4 in the 2000 Guineas.
7 of 8 winners aged 4+ ran at Royal Ascot last time.

Gender


Mares (0-0-5) have failed to fill a single place despite 3 of their 5 representatives in this being sent off 5/1 or shorter. Kooyonga (1992) & Pebbles (1985) have been the only 2 female winners of the race. Both were 4yos that finished in first 2 in the 1000 Guineas & Coronation Stakes as 3yos and were placed in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes on previous start.

Recent/Past Form


10 of 10 winners achieved career highest RPR in last 3 starts
9 of 10 winners (last 8) posted an RPR of 120+ last time out
9 of 10 winners had run between 2 and 4 times that season
9 of 10 winners had run in past 30 days
7 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+ (3 exceptions ran in a 1M group 1 at Royal Ascot last time)
10 of 10 winner had won a group 1
8 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd in a group 1 that year (1 exception hadn't run that year)
6 of 10 winners were having their first course start (3 of 4 others were course winners)
Since 2000, 3 of 4 winners aged 3 had won a group 1 as a 2yo (exception had won a group 2 and not contested a group 1 as a juvenile)

Other Races


Record of horses that ran in the Derby: 2-3-13
Previous year's highest finisher to return: 41137 (2-0-5)
Futurity Stakes winner (War Command): 1 (1-0-1)
2000 Guineas winner (Night Of Thunder): 1 (1-0-1)
Prince Of Wales' Stakes winner (The Fugue): 851 (1-0-3)
Racing Post Trophy winner (Kingston Hill): 22 (0-2-2)
York Stakes winner (Mukhadram): 3 (0-1-1)
Previous season's Dewhurst winner (War Command): 4 (0-0-1)
Previous season's Yorkshire Oaks winner (The Fugue): 4 (0-0-1)
Bet365 Mile winner (Tullius): 5 (0-0-1)
5 of 10 winners ran in Prince of Wales Stakes last time, finishing 43221
2 of 10 winners ran in Queen Anne Stakes last time, finishing 15
5 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Champion Stakes, finishing 18015
3 of 10 winners ran in Tattersalls Gold Cup, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in Gordon Richards Stakes, finishing 41
2 of 10 winners ran in Mooresbridge Stakes, finishing 61
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dubai Duty Free, finishing 81
2 of 2 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 41
2 of 2 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 01

Trainers


Aidan O’Brien (3-3-15) has trained the winner 5 times since 2000.
Michael Stoute (1-4-11) has saddled 2 winners, 3 seconds and 2 thirds since 2000.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-1-3) & John Gosden (1-1-5) each trained a winner and a placed finishers in past 10 years.

Price


10 of 10 winners have come from the first 4 in the betting
Only one winner since 2004 was sent off at odds of 8/1 or bigger.
Favourites (4-4-10) have supplied 4 of the last 5 winners however they show a level stakes loss of 1.26 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Male aged 3 that finished in first 4 in 2000 Guineas & Derby & won a group 1 in 2013 or
- Male aged 4 or 5 that finished first 5 at Royal Ascot last time
- Had 2 to 4 runs this season
- Run in last 30 days
- Posted an RPR of 120+ last time
- Had won a group 1
- Finished in first 2 in a group 1 in 2014
- Finished in first 5 in Queen Anne or Prince Of Wales last time
- Ran in 2013 Champion Stakes at Ascot
- Trained by Aidan O’Brien
- From first 4 in the betting.