The Investec Oaks takes place at Epsom on Friday 2nd June. It’s the fillies’ equivalent to the Derby, run over the same 1M 4F trip. There have been a couple of upsets in recent years with Look Here taking the prize at 33/1 in 2008 and Qualify at 50/1 in 2015.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Race for 3yos
Irish bred: 5-7-58
British bred: 4-10-58
American bred: 1-3-10
German bred: 0-0-1
9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner (exception by a group 2 winner)
4 of last 5 winners were sired by a winner of the Epsom Derby.
Galileo progeny: 050700850851042068761 (2-1-21)
Fastnet Rock progeny: 741874 (1-0-6)
Zoffany progeny: 2 (0-1-1)
8 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts (2 exceptions had run 7+ times and were trained by Aidan O'Brien)
10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M+
8 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 1M as 2yos
8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 over 1M 2F+ last time (2 exceptions yet to run over further than a mile & ran in Irish 1000 Guineas last time)
5 of 10 winners won last time out (3 exceptions finished 2nd/3rd in an Oaks trial & other two were 2nd & 10th in Irish 1000 Guineas)
8 of 10 winners achieved their highest RPR last time (all 10 winners posted RPR of 98+ last time)
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
7 of 10 winners had won at listed level or higher (3 exceptions were 2nd/3rd in listed or group 3)
British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Fillies' winner (Sobetsu): 12613 (2-2-5)
Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Intricately): 551 (1-0-3)
Fillies' Mile winner (Rhododendron): 6471 (1-0-4)
2 of 3 Aidan O'Brien-trained winners ran in Moyglare Stud Stakes, finishing 61
2 of 3 Aidan O'Brien-trained winners ran in Fillies Mile, finishing 52
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Maiden, finishing 11
Pretty Polly Stakes winner (horseplay): 00007115 (2-0-8)
Cheshire Oaks winner (Enable): 100527044 (1-1-9)
Newbury Fillies Trial winner (Natavia): 04330 (0-2-5)
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Pretty Polly Stakes last time, finishing 11
2 of 3 Aidan O'Brien-trained winners ran in 1000 Guineas, finishing 01
2 of 3 Aidan O'Brien-trained winners ran in Irish 1000 Guineas last time, finishing 02
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 in a recognised Oaks trial (Musidora, Pretty Polly, Sweetenham, Height Of Fashion, Blue Wind, Lingfield or Cheshire Oaks)
Aidan O’Brien (3-5-34) has won the race four times in the past 11 years though he his runners have represented 25% of the total runners. His first strings have a record of 1-3-10, 2 of his 3 winners in last 10 years were sent off 20/1 & 50/1, he has also saddled placed finishers at 20/1 & 25/1 since 2007.
Ralph Beckett (2-1-10) trained winner in 2008 and also saddled the 1-2 in 2013.
Hugo Palmer (0-1-1) saddled runner-up in 2016.
Irish-trained runners have a record of 3-8-45, when omitting Aidan O’Brien’s runners their record becomes 0-3-11.
The recent trend has been towards longer priced winners, with 5 of last 10 going off at 20/1 or bigger.
Favourites (2-2-10) have won just 2 of last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 4.84 since 2007.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sired by a winner of a group 1
- Had 1 or 2 runs this year
- Ran in the past 35 days & achieved career high RPR of 98+ last time
- Won a listed or group race (or placed in group 1)
- Won over 7F or 1M as a 2yo
- Ran over 1M 2F+ last time
- Won last time out (or 2nd in an Oaks Trial)
- Finished in first 2 in a recognised Oaks Trial this year (or ran in Irish 1000 Guineas last time)
- Trained by Ralph Beckett or Aidan O’Brien