12.20 Ascot ? Mitie Events & Leisure Novices? Hurdle.
Four last time out hurdle winners go to post in the opener at Ascot but history suggests those carrying a penalty can be a shade vulnerable. Six of the eight winners did so carrying 10-12, with only Easter Day (2012) and Elegant Escape (2016) successfully shouldering a penalty to success.
Of those attempting to so here, Palmers Hill is likely to be prominent in the market for Jonjo O?Neill and JP McManus having made a successful start to his career under Rules at Uttoxeter. Previously he had won his second start between the flags before being sold to his new connections for ?310,000, and looks a smart prospect. However, other than the 3rd horse (who won next time), the form of that particular Uttoxeter contest hasn?t worked out particularly well ? the seven other finishers have all been well beaten since. I?d have liked to have seen that form work out better to support this horse under a penalty so I?m happy to oppose here. The form of the stable is also another major concern, having sent out just 1 winner from 38 runners (3%) over the past 14 days.
Court Meribel and Take To Heart will be attempting to carry a double penalty to victory, which will make life very difficult. Should either of these achieve that, then we will need to sit up and take note. Of the pair the latter is likely to prove the most popular given he is representing Nicky Henderson and The Queen. However, some of the yard?s horses have needed their first runs this season, and the double penalty won?t help on his seasonal bow. Currently the ground is good to soft, and should the word ?soft? remain in the description, that would also be a slight worry as he is yet to run on anything slower than good.
With regards to Court Meribel, he has strong claims, and his most recent win up at Carlisle was franked when the runner-up (Kildisart) won here on Friday. Nigel Twiston-Davies? five-year-old is a genuine sort who has placed in all of his seven starts over hurdles and should run his race again; however, he could prove vulnerable, especially to those whom he is giving 8lbs to.
And the one I think all of the previously mentioned horses could struggle to concede weight to is the Alan King-trained PERFECT HARMONY. This son of Definite Article made a satisfactory start to his hurdling career when 4th behind the subsequent Cheltenham winner On The Blind Side. The runner-up (Another Stowaway) was also 2nd again, but that wasn?t a bad performance, and was ultimately out-stayed over a longer trip. The 6th, 7th & 8th placed horses have also placed since behind some nice prospects, which adds some more substance to the form. It is also worth remembering that this horse took his chance in the Champion Bumper having scored on his Rules debut at Newbury, and given he looks more of a stayer, performed well to finish 11th. He would have also won his only start in an Irish Point-to-Point but for falling at the last, and the fortunate winner (Redemption Song) has won a bumper and a maiden hurdle since. Overall, I like the profile of this horse and his form looks strong enough for him to be competitive here. The yard has also started to hit form (3 winners & 3 seconds from their last 11 runners) and I expect this horse to play a part in the finish.
Of the others Kim Bailey?s Johnny Ocean is somewhat of an unknown having won his sole Irish Point, as is Nicky Henderson?s other runner Darius Des Bois, who was unsuccessful in two attempts between the flags. It will be interesting to see if there is any money about for either of these, but on the face of it they face a tough task on their hurdling debuts.
PERFECT HARMONY ? 1pt e/w @ 5/1 (bet365) (1/4 odds)
12.40 Haydock ? Betfair Each Way Edge Handicap Chase.
This will inevitably turn out to be a real slog so we need to be looking for a horse that will be suited by the extreme conditions.
There are a pair of National winners in the field, albeit the Durham version, so that would seem a decent place to start. Buachaill Alainn won the Sedgefield showpiece 12 months ago and finished a respectable fifth in his bid for back-to-back renewals last time out. His best form has been on a much sounder surface than he is likely to encounter here though which puts a big question mark next to him. Grand National winning trainer Dr Richard Newland?s Royale Knight landed the 2014 & 2015 Durham National and has the benefit of a prep run over hurdles under his belt. He has performed respectably without getting his head in front for over two years now but has dropped down to his last winning mark as a result. However, conceding weight all round in stamina-sapping ground may just prove a step too far for him here.
Therefore, preference is for RUSSE BLANC, who shaped well when fourth in a valuable Carlisle handicap on his seasonal bow and has surprisingly been dropped 1lb by the assessor. Kerry Lee?s charge will be ideally suited by the conditions having landed a heavy-ground Classic Chase over this distance back in 2016 and able to race off the very same mark here, he must have a great shout. Arguably, soft isn?t soft enough for him and this will be the first time he?s raced on heavy since winning that big pot at Warwick.
The biggest danger to the selection could be Courtown Oscar who arrives in top form having scored at Carlisle a month ago. A 5lb rise for that success is a fair assessment and this race was mooted as his target immediately after winning that contest. As an eight-year-old, he has his best days still ahead of him as a marathon chaser and he can continue his progression with a solid run here.
Emperor?s Choice cannot go unmentioned having landed the 2015 renewal, although it is fair to say that he has gone off the boil a bit since then. However, he is the sort to bounce back from adversity and now races off his lowest mark since winning the West Wales National back in February 2014. Venetia Williams is a master at getting the best out of her staying chasers and it wouldn?t be a big surprise to see him bounce back to some sort of form here.
RUSSE BLANC ? 1.5pt win @ 13/2 (Paddy Power)
1.15 Haydock ? Cash Out In-Play With Betfair Graduation Chase.
I was surprised when this Graduation Chase received so many entries given the state of the ground at Haydock, but it gives us a cracking contest in prospect, with plenty of Novice Chasers that have very high ceilings in terms of their potential.
The highest rated horse in the lineup and perhaps the one with the biggest potential is Paul Nicholls? highly-rated Clan Des Obeaux. He made his reappearance this season when running Whisper very close in a two-runner race at Kempton and that?s a commendable effort, even though the bare form of these two runner contests is always questionable. Still, that trip of the bare two and a half miles on good ground could well have been too sharp a test for him and this bigger field on softer ground should be much more up his street. How he?ll cope with heavy ground is an unknown, but he?s a big horse who has dealt with soft ground well in the past, so I think he?ll be fine, but he does have to concede 7lb+ to some other smart rivals in this race and on heavy ground, getting weight is worth a lot. I still think this promising chaser will go well, but might just find something effectively better handicapped due to the conditions of the race.
Others who have to carry the welter burden of 11st 8lb include Cyrus Darius, Malcolm Jeferson?s lightly-raced eight-year-old who is unbeaten in his two runs over fences and proven in heavy ground. He was delivered very late on his seasonal debut after cruising into contention before making two or three significant errors and then flying home and it?s clear that he?s got masses of ability. However he?s not straightforward and seems to lose his concentration in front, so it?ll be a case of Brian Hughes having to give him a peach of a ride again. Still, the memory of his stunning Grade 2 Aintree hurdles win lives in the memory, so he can?t be ruled out, even though he?s got to take a step up again and prove himself a better jumper than he?s shown so far.
Seldom Inn is the other who carries the biggest weight and he?s an interesting horse with no worries over stamina or the heavy ground. The form of his win over Tenor Nivernais and his second behind Yala Enki read well and he?ll almost certainly be a bigger price than he should be simply due to the fact he?s trained by Sandy Thomson. However, this will be the first run of his season and I?d certainly prefer to side with one with race fitness on their side.
The first horse that receives 7lb from those at the top is Sue Smith?s Vintage Clouds, who was very impressive on his seasonal reappearance at Aintree, winning comfortably in a three-mile novices? handicap chase. That race was a little odd in that many of the fences were taken out for low sun, so there was a very long run-in and that was where this horse?s stamina and excellent attitude won him the day. He deals with heavy ground and over this shorter trip, that would certainly bring him into things, while the 7lb he receives from Clan Des Obeaux puts him just 1lb behind on weight-adjusted ratings, so he?s certainly got a decent chance. However, I think that this trip is just a bit short of his ideal and he might find a couple too quick for him, even on this surface.
One such horse and also one that gets 7lb from some of these rivals is the Dan Skelton-trained BORN SURVIVOR. This six-year-old has been minded for a couple of seasons over hurdles while he?s matured and has always been thought of as a chaser in the making, so it was no surprise when he made such a promising debut over these obstacles at Wetherby three weeks ago. His hurdles record was decent considering he carried big weights in competitive handicaps for most of last season and he?s clearly got an engine. That chase debut was in soft ground, but over two miles, so it was encouraging that he won so well over that trip, which is short of his ideal (he?s a 3m point winner) ? he defeated The Nipper by eleven lengths basically on the bridle and she?s a smart mare for Warren Greatrex, even though she didn?t cover herself in glory when well beaten the next time. He?s a horse who looks to relish soft ground, so even though his record on heavy isn?t exactly inspiring so far, I have no doubt that he?ll deal with it well here. The tactic of allowing horses to have that extra year over hurdles to strengthen up and gain experienced has worked an absolute treat for Skelton with North Hill Harvey, who bolted up at Cheltenham last time out, and while he may have a real Arkle contender in the shape of that horse, BORN SURVIVOR could throw his hat in the ring for one of the longer novice chases at the Festival with a big effort here. With the 7lb he gets from top-rated Clan Des Obeaux, he also hops above him on weight-adjusted ratings, so there?s another factor to recommend him.
In terms of threats, Lucinda Russell?s seven-year-old Big River may be underestimated as he?s actually on top of the weight-adjusted ratings due to getting 4lb from Born Survivor and 11lb from Clan Des Obeaux. He?s got form in heavy ground, he stays well and after an easy chase debut victory at Kelso, he?s got race fitness and that good experience over fences on his side as well. He might go quite well at a bigger price, but he might fall into the same boat as Vintage Clouds in the fact that he?d ideally like further.
BORN SURVIVOR ? 1pt win @ 9/4 (BetVictor, Paddy Power)
1.30 Ascot ? Trisoft Mares? Handicap Hurdle.
This looks a competitive race to get our teeth into and the weights are headed by On Demand who got back to winning ways at Wincanton last month. However, she couldn?t reproduce that effort back at that venue last time although I suspect the soft ground wouldn?t have been to her liking. She also may not have enjoyed being held up as she has run well from the front in the past and she could be worth another chance if ridden forward here.
Neil Mulholland saddles an interesting runner in the shape of Whatsthatallabout who has won on her last three visits to a racecourse. However, the latest of those victories was back in September 2016, so she has to prove her fitness following such an absence. Having said that, the yard are more than capable of getting one ready first time and it will be interesting to see how she fares here.
Tom Lacey?s Jester Jet looks one of the more likely contenders despite the fact that the handicapper might just have her measure. She won three times in the second half of last season and her final victory at Perth in May earned her a 12lb hike in the weights. Having said that, she ran with plenty of credit when we last saw her at Aintree in June and if she is ready to go on her seasonal reappearance, she shouldn?t be too far away.
There are two mares in here who tackled the Grade 2 Mares Finale at Newbury on their most recent outings, one of which was Hitherjacques Lady who finished well-beaten at the line. However, prior to that she had looked a mare on the up, winning by wide-margins at Wincanton and Lingfield in testing conditions. That last run might have been a case of one step too far as she had enjoyed a long season and on her best form I think she could play a leading role.
However, RIVER ARROW finished third in the same Newbury race and considering the quality of the two mares that finished in front of her that day (Snow Leopardess and Copper Kay), I think a reproduction of that effort would be her hard to beat here. She really seemed to improve last Spring and her final two runs were by far the best of her career. Her trainer Tom Symonds also won back-to-back renewals of this race in 2012 and 2013 so it is clearly a race he targets and in an open race, she gets the vote.
RIVER ARROW ? 1pt win @ 4/1 (Paddy Power)
2.05 Ascot ? Christy 1965 Chase (Grade 2)
This looks a very competitive renewal with a field of nine top class horses lining up.
A case could be made for any one of them but TOP NOTCH stands out above all others for me with the benefit of a pipe-opener under his belt. Nicky Henderson?s charge should be spot on after his spin over hurdles at Aintree earlier this month and rates one of the more exciting second season chasers this season. The six-year-old landed the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices? Chase at Sandown last season and followed that up with a fine second to Yorkhill in the Grade 1 JLT Novices? Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. It?s probably fair to say he was a bit over the top at Aintree after that so I can see him reversing the form with Flying Angel. Conditions should be perfect for him and a big run is expected.
His stablemate Josses Hill seems to put his best foot forward at this time of the year but I would have liked him to have had a run before lining up in this company. His ready win in the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase last year would put him right in the mix but he tends to get found out at the very highest level and there are some proven top level performers in this strong Grade 2.
Philip Hobbs has landed two of the last five renewals and is represented by last year?s winner Royal Regatta, who is seeking to join only Master Minded and Al Ferof as back-to-back winners of the 1965 Chase. He has shown very little though in four starts since landing this twelve months ago and whilst this has probably been his main target, he looks up against it here.
Although Hobb?s record is pretty good, Paul Nicholls has been the man to follow with a record five wins courtesy of the aforementioned repeat winners and Cerium?s success back in 2006. Frodon is his sole representative this time round but he has a lot of ground to make up with the selection and Flying Angel on their Manifesto Novices? Chase run back in April so a place may seem the best Nicholls can hope for in this year?s renewal.
Alan King also finds himself on the roll of honour thanks to Howle Hill?s victory 10 years ago and he has a leading chance with Old Roan Chase winner Smad Place. He is a horse I like a lot but I must admit to being very surprised to see him win at Aintree over a trip I deemed on the sharp side. He steps up another furlong here and if the same front-running tactics are employed, he could well steal a march on the opposition. This will prove a different test out of handicap company but I rate him as the biggest danger to the selection.
Top Gamble looks fairly treated here weight-wise off of just 11st 1lb but that is probably for good reason as he hasn?t got his head in front since March 2016. It goes without question that he has a lot of ability but he hasn?t put his best foot forward on his seasonal bow for the last couple of campaigns and this looks a pretty tough opening.
Tom George?s Double Shuffle is another to receive weight from the majority of the opposition and he arrives in decent nick having finished runner-up in a valuable Chepstow handicap back in October. He steps out of handicap company for the first time here though over a trip that looks on the sharp side on ground that could prove softer than ideal, so he looks up against it. The same could be said of Sizing Granite who was pulled up in the same Chepstow contest having never really gone a yard.
Flying Angel cannot pass without a mention but I have the sneaking suspicion that his win at the Aintree Festival was a bit of a fluke. He seems to perform well when it comes to the spring Festivals but that won?t aid his cause here and I think he may just get found out this season.
TOP NOTCH ? 1.5pt win @ 100/30 (Betfred)
2.25 Haydock ? Betfair Stayers? Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)
This race already has a stellar roll of honour. Diamond Harry, Grands Crus and Dynaste have all tasted success in this race and although the ?Fixed Brush? hurdles have been done away with, it still looks an interesting puzzle for us to solve.
With six of the last ten renewals having been run on soft or heavy ground, including the last five, it may not surprise you to learn that all but one of the winners during that time had winning form in similar conditions. Only Dynaste had not won on soft ground prior to winning here but looking at the forecast conditions for tomorrow, it seems best to focus our attention on those with soft ground form. The only one without winning form on soft or heavy ground this year is Neil Mulholland?s Fingerontheswitch.
Despite Millenium Royal and Diamond Harry winning off a mark of 156 and 149 respectively, the stats suggest that those with lower ratings have fared well in recent years. In fact, the desired bracket appears to be between 132 and 143 as that has included eight of the last nine winners. Applying that to this year?s field, eliminates the top five as they appear on the racecard (Silsol down to Minella Awards) as well as the bottom three Templeross, Fingerontheswitch and Ibsen.
Closely associated with ratings is weight and this is a race in which lower weights have fared best. Millenium Royal, Diamond Harry and Trustan Times have all shouldered top weight to victory but overall the ceiling looks to be set at 11st 2lb with six of the last ten winners having carried no more than that to victory.
In terms of age, those aged five and six hold the strongest record having accounted for seven of the last ten winners including seven of the last eight. Looking at this year?s line-up, they only have six representatives, the two five-year-olds No Hassle Hoff and Sam Spinner, as well as the quartet of six-year-olds, The Worlds End, Minella Awards, Robbin?Hannon and Templeross. Kruzhlinin broke the mould when winning at the age of nine last year but prior to that the oldest winner of the race had been seven. With that in mind I would be happy to strongly oppose any runner over the age of seven in this year?s race.
Looking at recent renewals, it seems best to focus our attention on those arriving in good form. Six of the last ten winners had finished in the first three on their most recent start and in fact only one of the last ten winners had finished outside of the first six.
Another interesting factor to consider is that six of the last ten winners had already run during that campaign. Race fitness can make a big difference in the closing stages of a race especially in testing conditions, where those lacking fitness can soon find themselves floundering, so I think it would be best to side those with a run under their belt. There are six horses making their seasonal debuts here, namely Silsol, Zarkandar, The Worlds End, Minella Awards, Champers On Ice and The Dutchman.
The final factor to consider is the betting and whilst there have only been two winning favourites in the last decade, the market has still proved a strong guide. Apart from Millenium Royal, who won at 20/1 in 2007, the last nine winners were sent off no bigger than 12/1, therefore we shouldn?t be looking too far from the head of the market when searching for the winner. At the time of writing, the favourite is The Worlds End at around 5/1, ahead of the likes of Minella Awards, No Hassle Hoff, Sam Spinner and Champers On Ice.
SAM SPINNER ? 7/7
No Hassle Hoff ? 7/7
Robbin?Hannon ? 6/7
When taking everything into account, we are left with two horses who match all seven of our trends, however the one who gets the nod is SAM SPINNER. Jedd O?Keeffe?s five-year-old had a good novice season last term, winning three of his four starts, with his only defeat coming when attempting to concede 7lb to Mount Mews at Kelso in December. He has already shown some smart handicap form this term by finishing a close second in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow last month and with a couple of the beaten horses having come out and run well subsequently that looks strong form. This will be his first try beyond 2m4f but he set an honest gallop at Chepstow last time before staying on, so I don?t see any reason why he won?t be suited by the step up in trip. He is one of the least exposed runners in the field and with plenty going in his favour, he looks to have a leading chance.
Just missing out on the top spot is No Hassle Hoff who made a winning return to action at Uttoxeter last month. He probably just got a little tired late in the closing stages on his seasonal reappearance but he travelled well throughout and should have improved physically for the run. He too had smart form as a novice including a close second in a Grade 2 at Doncaster in January and a good run over today?s course and distance behind The Worlds End the following month. He has been hit with a 7lb rise for his latest win but he still has relatively few miles on the clock and could be open to further improvement.
The shortlist is completed by Robbin?Hannon whose only negative is that he is currently around 14/1 with most firms. Apart from his price, he looks to have a strong profile, having won on heavy ground at Warwick in the spring. The ground was probably too quick for him when he chased home Calett Mad at the end of October but he stuck to his task and he should be suited by the extreme test of stamina this race is likely to develop into. Philip Hobbs landed this prize twelve months ago and although this horse is much more inexperienced than last year?s winner, he should be able to put up a good performance.
SAM SPINNER ? 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Betfair Sportsbook) (6 places)
3.00 Haydock ? Betfair Chase (Grade 1)
This is the first really ?big? Grade 1 race of the season, but a combination of the heavy ground in prospect and the swerving of the race by a few of the big boys has left it looking a little bare in terms of real Gold Cup calibre contenders.
Still, there are only two horses in here rated less than 160 ? Traffic Fluide and Shantou Flyer. Both look to have a big, if not impossible task on their hands to be really competitive here, even though the step up in trip could draw out more improvement from Gary Moore?s highly-rated seven-year old.
So onto the 160+ contenders and the lowest rated of them is in fact the horse that heads the market ? Bristol De Mai, the brave winner of the Charlie Hall Chase three weeks ago. Nigel Twiston-Davies? six-year-old looks to have stepped up again on his previous efforts and it was a good performance to win on his first run of the season. However, the big white elephant in the room is that both of his biggest rivals that day failed to complete ? Coneygree struck into himelf and was pulled up, while Cue Card fell when looking a big threat. Who knows how the finish would have panned out if those two were still standing after the last ? of course Cue Card was beaten fair and square in the race last year by Irish Cavalier, so there?s no guarantee he would have beaten Bristol De Mai.
Sticking to the facts of the race, Twiston-Davies? horse defeated the 155-rated Blaklion by half a length when giving him 6lb, so that places him at around the 162 mark ? one that still looks short of some of the very best performers here, however, his proven liking of heavy ground at this track couldhelp him close the gap. I expect Bristol De Mai to go well here, there?s no reason why he wouldn?t, but the combination of his very short price and poor record in all-age Grade 1 contests so far in his chasing career makes me concerned that one of the more experienced contenders will simply still be better than him.
Speaking of which, as I said before, there is no way of knowing how close Cue Card would have gone in the Charlie Hall, but his record suggests that the race is usually just a pipe-opener for him to get ready for his season ahead and especially this race which he has won for three of the last four years. This contest suits Colin Tizzard?s charge so well ? a relatively flat track, three miles and soft ground are his absolute optimum and I think that as his career has gone on, the heavier the better ? conditions should be no problem at all to Cue Card. He?ll have come on plenty for that reappearance run and I?ve no doubt that Tizzard would have got him straight back schooling after his fall at home so you?d be hopeful that it hasn?t left a mark. Of course having a new jockey on his back is a concern, but the concern drops away when you see it?s Harry Cobden, one of the best young pilots around. He?s still the highest rated horse in the race, conditions will be ideal and he?ll be better for his reappearance ? CUE CARD loves this race and it would be no surprise at all if he writes another chapter in the love story.
Looking at his other two rivals in the race, Outlander bounced back to form in a big way when taking the Grade 1 JNWine Champion Chase at Down Royal last time out. His reappearance run, despite looking very disappointing at the time, clearly worked the oracle as this morst recent appearance was a much better effort. However, in defeating the in-form Road To Respect, it may have set a decent level for him to build on for the rest of the season, but it didn?t quite smack of a very top level Grade 1 performance. He has usually fallen short at this level, apart from the one Lexus Chase win last season, but even that win where he defeated Don Poli and Djakadam wouldn?t strike too much fear into the likes of Cue Card at his best. Despite back surgery ad freshening up over the summer seeming to work well, I?m still doubtful that he?ll quite have enough in the tank to win this.
Tea For Two has beaten Cue Card in the not so distant past, so must be highly respected. That neck victory in the Aintree Bowl over almost exactly this trip was on good ground though and it may be that Cue Card is now a much better horse on soft ground at the age of eleven. Still, Nick Williams? stable star goes on soft ground, so he may well be able to deal with this, even if it would?t be his ideal. I think he?s just short of this level on soft ground, but he could progress over the season, being just eight-years-old, and could end up being a bonafide Grade 1 animal by the spring.
CUE CARD ? 2pts win @ 2/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes)
3.35 Haydock ? Best Odds Guaranteed With Betfair Handicap Chase.
The final race on Betfair Chase day at Haydock looks likely to be a war of attrition with ten chasers running over 3m 1?f on heavy ground.
One who is likely to be popular in the market is Sir Ivan who arrives in search of a hat-trick following victories at Ffos Las in May and most recently Uttoxeter in October. The seven-year-old is clearly getting better with experience over fences but an 8lb rise for his latest success is likely to make life more difficult for him.
Fergal O?Brien?s Chase The Spud should have no problems in the stamina department having won the Midlands Grand National back in March at Uttoxeter. He showed a willing attitude to get the better of Mysteree that day but having been raised 9lb for that effort, he has to prove that he can be competitive off his new mark.
The form of Nicky Henderson?s yard has started to pick up in recent weeks and it will be interesting to see how Lessons In Milan fares on his first run of the season. The nine-year-old finished last term with a fine effort in the Scottish National, finishing fifth behind Paul Nicholls? Vicente. He should handle conditions as he has winning form on heavy ground over hurdles and we might not have seen the best of him yet.
Another with soft ground form is Catamaran Du Seuil who got up in the shadow of the post to win at Ayr a couple of weeks ago. The handicapper may have been kind to Dr Richard Newland?s five-year-old in raising him just 2lb and this former French-trained gelding could have more to come.
Henri Parry Morgan looks to be one of the better-handicapped horses in the race, having been rated as high as 150 last season, he now finds himself on a mark of 136. It is worth pointing out that his slip down the weights is largely due to poor performances but he showed enough last time at Newbury to suggest, he was on the way back. The 2m4f trip would have been shorter than ideal for him that day and with James Bowen taking a useful 5lb off his back, he looks to have plenty going in his favour.
However, ROBINSFIRTH has long been highly-regarded by his connections and he looks to have the potential to improve past his current mark of 142. Colin Tizzard?s eight-year-old was only having his fourth start over fences when he finished fourth at Cheltenham last month and ran with plenty of credit, just tiring late on. He was entitled to tire on his first start since January and with that run under his belt a tongue-tie fitted here, he looks primed for a big run. He won on very soft ground at Exeter at the beginning of the year so conditions shouldn?t be a problem and with Robbie Power coming over to ride him, I think he has a strong each-way chance.
ROBINSFIRTH ? 1pt e/w @ 5/1 (bet365) (1/4 odds)