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    Default Day 4. The Cheltenham Festival -- 16/3/2018

    1.30 Cheltenham – The JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 3)


    When it comes to the cream of the juvenile hurdling crop it would seem that money normally talks. The last three winners have all been sent off as favourite, with 10 of the last 12 winners coming from the first 3 in the market. Apple’s Shakira, Redicean and Stormy Island head the bookies’ boards at the time of writing.


    The juveniles lining up here, whilst full of potential tend to be short on experience, in fact only 4 of the last 13 winners had more than 3 runs over hurdles under their belt. Given that inexperience, a recent run prior to the Festival is important to refine their hurdling technique. This can be backed up by the fact that no winner since 1992 had been off the course for more than 55 days; a worrying stat for Stormy Island and Gumball.


    Nicky Henderson has the best record when it comes to trainers, having saddled 6 winners in total. He has 3 victories to his name in the last decade alone and the 2015 renewal in which he had his most recent winner, Peace And Co, also saw him send out the second and third Top Notch and Hargam. Apple’s Shakira represents the master of Seven Barrows this year and must be afforded extra respect.
    In terms of trials, the Spring Juvenile Hurdle run at Leopardstown in February is the best guide having produced 4 of the last 11 winners. Our Conor was the only one of those to complete the double in 2013 but Countrywide Flame (3rd), Tiger Roll (2nd) and Ivanovich Gorbatov (4th) were all beaten at Leopardstown before going on to win at the Festival so don’t be too quick to dismiss the beaten horses in this year’s renewal. Mr Adjudicator won the 2018 edition, but runner-up Farclas will be looking to turn the tables at Cheltenham.


    The strength of the Spring Juvenile Hurdle contributes to the next factor. In the last 6 renewals, horses that had run in a Grade 1 race have won 5 times from just 26 participants over that timescale. After the runners from the Spring Hurdle previously mentioned, Sussex Ranger is the only other horse in the line-up with top-level experience already under his belt.


    Flat-bred types used to be the way to go in the Triumph but that trend has shifted in recent times with 3 of the last 4 winners having never run on the Flat. Apple’s Shakira and Gumball are the only two in the race this year who started their careers straight over hurdles.


    The ever-increasing French influence has impacted on the Triumph in a big way with French-bred horses filling 8 of the 9 places in the last 3 renewals winners having started their careers on the other side of the Channel. The juvenile scene in France kicks into gear from the very early days with 3yos regularly competing under National Hunt rules so this may just give them an edge over the British and Irish types who have either been switched from the flat or are being brought along with their future careers in mind. Leading fancies Apple’s Shakira and Farclas both got their lives on the racecourse underway on Gallic soil.


    Shortlist

    Apple’s Shakira

    Farclas

    Mr Adjudicator

    Apple’s Shakira has been the long-term favourite for the Triumph having made an impressive British debut at Cheltenham in November. The filly represents leading trainer in the race Nicky Henderson and she must have a good change of adding to his record. She arrives here unbeaten in four career starts (her first run was in France), with three wins at Cheltenham including the Grade 2 Triumph Trial at the end of January. The key Irish trial, the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown, has two representatives in the Triumph this year. Mr Adjudicator won the race this year for Willie Mullins, but Farclas will be hoping to reverse the form (only beaten a length and a quarter) for Gordon Elliott at the Festival.




    2.10 Cheltenham – The Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)


    Irish-trained runners have tended to dominate in recent history having won 8 of the last 11 renewals. As seems the case in most Festival races nowadays, Willie Mullins is the main man to focus on with 4 of those 7. Mullins saddles Bleu Et Rouge, Lagostovegas, Meri Devie, Sandsend and Whiskey Sour this time round.


    The home challenge has almost single-handedly been led by Paul Nicholls, with the Ditcheat man responsible for 4 winners from just 26 runners saddled in total. Divin Bere and Brahms de Clermont represent him here.


    The stiff finish at Prestbury Park is seen as one of the biggest tests of stamina in the game. Therefore, it is a tad surprising that this particular contest has tended to favour those who come from a flat background. This is a stark contrast to the majority of other Festival races but the fact that 7 of the last 10 winners started their careers on the level suggests that speed is of the essence when it comes to the County Hurdle. Leading fancies Ivanovich Gorbatov and Chesterfield have their chances boosted here having started their careers on the level.


    Improvers seem to be the way forward in the County so keep your eye out for an unexposed sort. 10 winners this century had run in 9 hurdles or less, which is a worry for the more experienced Ben Dundee and Ivanovich Gorbatov. However, handicap debutants are 0/67 since 1993 so prior big-field experience is a must, not a good sign for Sandsend and Le Richebourg.


    Taking into account that unexposed sorts pay the way here, it isn’t a shock that 14 winners this century were either first or second season hurdlers. The likes of Bleu Et Rouge, Sternrubin and Chesterfield fall foul of this in this year’s renewal.


    It is a common theme for last time out winners to be approached with caution in handicaps and the County Hurdle is no different. Only Lac Fontana and Final Approach have been successful on their most recent start prior to lining up here in the last 11 years. Meri Devie, Sandsend and A Hare Breath are among those with a ‘1’ next to their names in this year’s field.


    Shortlist

    Whiskey Sour

    Mohaayed


    Meri Devie


    Lagostovegas


    Having analysed the trends, there doesn’t seem to be any runaway candidate but the two atop the shortlist perform better than the rest.


    Whiskey Sour is given the vote at the head of affairs representing the bang-in-form Willie Mullins. Hailing from a background on the level when in the care of Eddie Lynam, he scored on his hurdles debut in the summer before bagging a pair of valuable Galway Festival handicaps just five days apart. Returned to jumps, he scored at the highest level (albeit extremely fortunately!) in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle with the re-opposing Le Richebourg miles behind and he now meets that rival on 4lb better terms. He was put in his place by Samcro latest, which following his exploits on Wednesday doesn’t come as a surprise, and that form (again in a Grade 1) does read particularly well. At 20/1 he looks a massive price and represents some solid each-way value.


    Dan Skelton’s Mohaayed made the shortlist last year and ticks the majority of the boxes once again. He wasn’t beaten far in seventh and has showed improved form since but will need to kick on again if he is to get involved from a 5lb higher mark.


    It’s hardly surprising that Willie Mullins runners dominate the shortlist and it is Meri Devie who finds herself in the third spot. She was placed in a Listed race when trained on the level in France by Nicolas Clement and although it seems to have taken her a while to reach that kind of standard over the sticks, she finished a decent second in a valuable handicap hurdle (on her handicap bow) at Fairyhouse in December and struck at Listed level in a mares’ contest at Punchestown most recently. The British handicapper seems to have let her go for that so she could well prove to be ahead of her mark of 139.


    There were a swathe of horses entitled to make the fourth place on the list but, again, it has to go to another Mullins-trained runner in Lagostovegas. Although not as classy as her stablemate on the level in her early years, she seems to be coming into her own now having finished third in the Cesarewitch back in October. She has had just the two runs since to keep her fresh and protect her mark, with her latest effort at Gowran Park a month ago looking every inch of a prep run as she travelled strongly into the contest only to lack for a bit of match-fitness when push came to shove. That should put her spot on for this and although it will take a career-best to get involved, she looks to have been laid out for this.




    2.50 – The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle Race (Grade 1)


    The Albert Bartlett is a thorough test of any Novice hurdler’s constitution and it’s clear that experience is crucial with horses that had run less than 3 times over hurdles never winning; a worrying stat for the likes of Santini and Ballyward in this year’s renewal.


    With experience coming to the fore, it makes sense that older horses have been the way to go in the Albert Bartlett. 5 of the 13 winners have been aged seven or eight-years-old so that category is where we should be focussing our attention here, which is music to the ears of the likes of Kilbricken Storm, Poetic Rhythm and Ok Corral


    3 of the last 5 winners of the Classic Novices’ Hurdle that have taken part, have won, so this is certainly one of the better guides to take note of when it comes to the Albert Bartlett. Current favourite for the race Santini won this year’s renewal which must give his chances a boost. With the Classic having a strong bearing on things, it supports the notion that high-level course form is paramount and winners of a Grade 2 hurdle at Cheltenham are 6 from 16 in the contest. The only horse who fits the bill this year is Kilbricken Storm.


    Despite his excellent record in almost every other race at the Festival, Willie Mullins is 1 from 29 in this, including 3 favourites, a surprise given his success with lightly-raced contenders in the Supreme and Neptune Novices’ Hurdle. Although he won the Albert Bartlett for the first time last year with Penhill, his record overall is not good news for Ballyward, Real Steel and Fabulous Saga.


    The Irish challenge has contributed 5 of the last 9 winners, so where Mullins struggle in this race, other step into the breach, but there isn’t a trend that specifies which side of the Irish Sea the winner is more likely to come from.


    Shortlist

    Kilbricken Storm

    Poetic Rhythm

    Calett Mad


    Kilbricken Storm was held last time but was previously a C&D Grade 2 winner so he has valuable Cheltenham experience to his name. He saw out the trip in the trial race in strong fashion which bodes well for the test of the Albert Bartlett. He can go well at a big price if able to bounce back to form. Poetic Rhythm has been progressive this season for Fergal O’Brien, landing a Grade 2 at Chepstow on his seasonal reappearance before finishing third in the same grade at Cheltenham. He then went on to land the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle at Newbury on heavy ground and should be suited by the step up in trip. Making up the shortlist is Calett Mad for Nigel Twiston-Davies who returned to form with victory at Musselburgh last month.




    3.30 Cheltenham – The Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase (Grade 1)


    Arguably the most historic and prestigious race of the whole Cheltenham Festival, the Gold Cup is a supreme test for a racehorse, that many horses can raise their level to win only once. This is supported by the fact that 15 of the 17 winners this century arrived having had less than 12 chase runs or less; not good reading for experienced campaigners Definitly Red, Double Shuffle and Minella Rocco.


    This theory is backed up when looking a tad deeper into Gold Cup winners’ careers as 11 of the 14 individual winners this century had just the single-season over timber. Our Duke and Road To Respect are just two who fit the bill in this particular aspect here.


    The Gold Cup test has proven all too much for veterans of late with no horse aged 10 or over winning this century, even with previous winners Kauto Star and Denman taking their chances. It is not a race for the old-boys which casts a doubt on Cue Card and Smad Place.


    You want to have a full tank coming into this race and only 1 horse to have raced more than 3 times earlier in the campaign has won in the past 10 renewals; bad news for Anibale Fly and Minella Rocco in this year’s race.


    Reinforcing the freshness argument, no horse to have raced on officially heavy ground in the current season has won this century. The extended 3m 2 1/2f with the stiff finish at Cheltenham asks a lot of stamina questions so you don’t want a horse leaving their race behind in a heavy-ground affair prior to lining up here. Our Duke and Definitly Red will have to overcome this particular stat this time round.

    Class is obviously one of the biggest factors here and allof the Gold Cup heroes this century had already won a Grade 1 over fences. Proven quality is a must so the likes of Killultagh Vic and Total Recall look to have it all to do to if they are to record their first top-level chasing win in this particular contest.


    However, being placed in the big race before is a huge negative – no horse this century has won the Gold Cup after being beaten in it before, so it might be difficult for the likes of Minella Rocco, Native River and Djakadam to try and land the big one this time round.


    Shortlist

    Might Bite

    Our Duke


    Road To Respect


    Might Bite is favourite for the race having looked like a potential superstar chaser in winning his last 5 starts. This has included success in the King George where he was always holding off his rivals. However, he has shown a quirky side to him, such as at the Festival last year when he wandered about on the run-in of the RSA but came back to land the race. He looked much more straight forward at Kempton this season through and has the engine to see off his challengers in the Gold Cup. Our Duke represents last year’s winning trainer Jessica Harrington and could be the main threat, with the Gigginstown-owned Road To Respect making up the shortlist for Noel Meade.




    4.10 Cheltenham – The St. James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase


    It shouldn’t come as a massive shock that, given the strength of the point-to-point scene in Ireland, Irish-trained horses have dominated this race in recent times, winning 6 of the last 7 renewals. On The Fringe, Foxrock and Burning Ambition head the challenge from the Emerald Isle this year.


    It seems that those who began their careers in hunter chases or point-to-points are the ones to focus on with 25 of the last 29 winners having started out in either of those disciplines, a good omen for leading fancies Burning Ambition and Foxrock.


    In contrast to the Aintree equivalent, the Foxhunter has tended to favour those up-and-coming hunters. horses aged 11 or older are 3/209 since 1990 while those aged 9 or younger have won 8 of the last 12 renewals. The veterans who have to defy father time in this year’s renewal include On The Fringe, Pacha du Polder and Grand Vision.


    Hunter chases have a reputation for favouring front runners and even at this top level, the way the race pans out tends to be little different. There are many arguments as to why this is the case but the fact remains that 10 winners since 1992 have made much or all of the running, given those who tend to race prominently a big edge. Grand Vision, Balnaslow and Foxrock are just a handful of the field that will likely race prominently.


    Only Drombeag, who had been off the track for the best part of 11 months, has won this contest having been off the track for more than 41 days this century. Those arriving fully fit in hunters tend to have a big edge on their rivals and this shouldn’t be underestimated. Only Foxrock, On The Fringe, Top Wood, Vincitore and Grand Vision line up here having not raced within that timescale.


    Shortlist


    Balnaslow

    Foxrock

    Barel of Laughs


    Wells de Lune


    It’s tight at the top but Balnaslow emerges as the trends pick. He was probably a tad unlucky not to finish placed in last year’s renewal having led for the vast majority of the race and although he was only beaten by three lengths, he was swamped by four rivals late on to finish fifth. Whether the mistake at the last put paid to his chances or whether that was a result of getting tired, we’ll never know, but his runner-up finish in the Aintree equivalent three weeks later followed by success in the Champion Hunter Chase at the Punchestown Festival showed that he was really ready to make his mark in this sphere. His front-running tactics seem to suit this contest and while he arrives a tad out of form having pulled up in a point last month, that should put him spot on for this and he could represent some solid each-way value.


    There are a few horses vying for the remaining spots on the shortlist but Foxrock earns his place as the only one of those to be trained in Ireland. Another prominent racer, he won the top trial for this last year but wasn’t qualified to run so had to wait a year to take his chance. He arrives fresh having had just the sole spin in a point, finishing a respectable second to Gilgamboa, and should be primed for a big run.


    Given that those who have finished placed in the race before tend to have a good record, last year’s third Barel of Laughs takes the third place on the shortlist. He followed up with a pair of wins in competitive hunters, one over course and distance, and returned to form with a win in a point a month ago. He isn’t quite as attractively priced as last year but given the number of front-runners in this year’s line-up, the race may again be run to suit for his trademark fast-finishing burst.


    Completing the shortlist is Wells de Lune, who does have his stamina to prove but has his claims boosted by the fact that the last 12 first-time winners hadn’t yet won over as far as the 3m 2 1/2f trip. He joined top pointing handler Mickey Bowen over the summer and won with any amount to spare in a Ffos Las hunter a month ago. He could well outrun his odds.




    4.50 Cheltenham – The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle



    Although there have only been 9 renewals of the race, a pattern is emerging where stamina becomes more of a factor than you’d expect over two and a half miles. The inexperienced conditional jockeys often go quickly, which has led to horses that are held up and have plenty of staying power doing well. Among the candidates likely to wait for their chance this year are Melrose Boy, Sire du Berlais and Tommy Rapper.


    All 9 of the winners of this race have been aged 5 or 6, so while that bracket tends to comprise most of the runners lining up, it still gives us the chance to narrow the field down slightly. Carter McKay, Dream Berry and Mr Big Shot are just a few of the big names that fall outside of this age group in this year’s renewal.


    5 of the 9 winners had run less than 5 times over hurdles, so this is a race where you’re looking for a classy young improver. Lough Derg Spirit and Coeur de Lion are among those with more experience than is usually required to take this pot.


    Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls have done well in the race in the past; winning 5 of the last 7 renewals and that can be attributed to both having the higher-rated horses with access to the best conditionals around. Mullins is represented by Burrows Saint, Carter McKay and Deal d’Estruval this time round while Nicholls saddles Amour de Nuit and Brelan d’As.


    Interestingly, David Pipe, whose father the race is named after, is 0 from 18, including 3 favourites and 3 second favourites. Mr Big Shot is his sole representative this time round.


    The O’Leary brothers are proving an ever-growing force on both sides of the Irish Sea and horses that carry the now widely-recognised maroon and white silks of Gigginstown House Stud have enjoyed success in the fledgling history of the Martin Pipe. Sir des Champs, Don Poli and Champagne Classic last year have won the contest from just 8 Gigginstown runners so Blow By Blow definitely warrants extra respect.


    Last-time-out winners have a solid record here with 4 of the winners to date from just 51 representatives over the 9 years. A tick in the box for the likes of Blow By Blow, Mr Big Shot and Delire d’Estruval.


    The headgear debate in the Martin Pipe is a tricky one as it seems to depend on the type applied. horses wearing your traditional blinker/cheekpieces/visors have fared particularly poorly with all 43 runners being beaten. Not a good sign for Blow By Blow, Flaxen Flare and Brillaire Momento.


    Shortlist

    Blow By Blow

    Discorama

    Early Doors


    Deal d’Estruval


    There isn’t a great deal separating the top three on the shortlist but given the strong record of Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners, Blow By Blow has to come out on top. Although he falls outside of the desired age range as a seven-year-old, he is particularly lightly-raced having had a few injury problems since winning the Champion Bumper at the Punchestown Festival in 2016. After more than a year off the track, it took him a while to get back into the swing of things but his win in a 2m7f maiden hurdle showed he still had ability and he comfortably struck at Grade 3 level last time out. He is a class act on his day and could take all the beating.


    Discorama beat him by a nose at Fairyhouse in December but has to settle for second spot on the shortlist. He has been tried at various trips since then and while it’s probably fair to say he hasn’t quite gone on from his last win, he just manages to scrape in here at the bottom of the weights and could still be ahead of his opening mark of 136 on this, his handicap debut.


    J. J. Slevin won last year’s renewal on Champagne Classic and his mount this year, Early Doors, also makes the list. Barring being beaten out of sight by Samcro last time, which can be said of a lot of horses, his form has a really solid look to it, landing a Grade 3 on just his second hurdles start and finishing a respectable second to Mengli Khan in the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse back in December. Irish horses making their handicap bows have been devilishly difficult to assess in this race by the handicapper and his mark of 140 could well prove to be a lenient one.


    There are a couple of horses vying for the final spot on the shortlist but No Hassle Hoff just misses out to Deal d’Estruval, purely because of the Willie Mullins factor. Runners from Closutton have performed extremely well here (as with most Festival races in recent times!) and he arrives with the benefit of big field experience having finished a solid second in the Coral Hurdle at Leopardstown last month. He has gone up a lot in the weights but a big run could be on the cards nonetheless.




    5.30 Cheltenham – The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3)


    With its big field and breakneck gallop, you have to be a serious jumper at pace to win a race like this. Combine that with a need for some luck in running, the tactical turn of foot needed to hold a position, then kick on up the hill and you have a race for specialists. Only 1 winner this century had ever won a chase over further than two miles and three furlongs in their career – the need for speed is key here which leaves Theinval and Top Gamble with something to find.



    Considering the cavalry-charge nature of the Festival finale, it seems a tad surprising to me that certain trainers have a consistent record. Paul Nicholls is 3/28 this century while Nicky Henderson has enjoyed success in the race named after his father with a pair of winners. This year, Nicholls saddles Bouvreuil, Le Prezien and Dolos while Henderseon is represented by Theinval.


    Novices have prevailed in 7 renewals this century, so it is the up-and-coming chasers that we need to be keeping an eye out for here. Dolos and North Hill Harvery lead the charge for the novices this time round.


    To further reinforce the young chaser angle, there has been only 1 winner this century to have landed the prize having run more than 12 times over fences; not good news for Theinval and Top Gamble among others.


    Ratings-wise, 6 of the last 7 winners were rated in the 140s, so there’s a well-defined band to look for here. Those falling outside of this hallowed bracket are Bright New Dawn and Doitforthevillage


    Shortlist

    Dolos

    Garde La Victoire

    Le Prezien

    Some Plan

    Dolos comes out on top of the trends representing Paul Nicholls who has a good record in the race. Also making up the shortlist in this competitive closing race of the Festival are Garde La Victoire, Le Prezien and Some Plan.

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (16th March 2018),  chesser (16th March 2018)  


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    Default Re: Day 4. The Cheltenham Festival -- 16/3/2018

    Absolutely brilliant. Thanks again

    Thanks to Gram2086

    ganjaman2 (17th March 2018)  


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