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    Default Saturday 24/3/2018

    2.05 Newbury – Insure With Be Wiser Handicap Chase







    This is a real test that’s in the offing with three miles and two furlongs in soft ground, so we’ll be looking for a stayer with a bit of quality in the mould of Carruthers, whose name appears on the roll of honour for this race back in 2015.




    Harry Fry’s Wotzizname has been in good form over fences this season, winning twice including a defeat of Mount Mews at Doncaster last time out. The way he found extra towards the end of that 3m race suggests this slightly longer trip should be ideal for him and he’ll hold decent claims under Noel Fehily. Although he was beaten by Shanroe Santos at Cheltenham back in December, he gave that horse 13lb that day and only gives him 5lb this time around – combine that with Lucy Wadham’s charge’s well documented jumping issues, which raised their ugly head again last time at Sandown, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that form was reversed here – Wotzizname certainly has the more solid profile and could have more to come over fences after just 5 starts over the larger obstacles.





    Coologue has been completely out of form this season, pulled up on both his starts, but could well be worth some interest at a big price if he can bounce back off a mark of 133 – his lowest over fences since hack1ng up at Bangor in October 2015. Still, he is a risky proposition given his preference for better ground than he’s likely to get here.




    One who will be making a seasonal debut here is AMORE ALATO, now with Dan Skelton after leaving Johnny Farrelly’s yard at the start of March. He’s been off for a year, so must be tuned up to the minute to win this, but a drop in the handicap to a mark of 131 gives him a real chance. It’s his lowest mark under rules over any obstacles since 2013 and if he retains his ability, it’s surely a big risk to leave him on such a low number. He’s only actually raced in a handicap once over fences despite having nine runs over the larger obstacles, so that indicates his quality and that was a decent ninth off 139 in the Close Brothers Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival in 2016. So far in his career, he’s been decent after a break, he’s won on soft ground, won over three miles and on a stiffer track than this. The switch to Dan Skelton’s yard is also surely a positive, so I think the nine-year-old is worth a wager despite his absence.





    Thomas Patrick could be a threat to the selection for Tom Lacey, despite being raced plenty this year on some bad ground. He was fourth in the Devon national at Exeter last time out (behind Dawson City, who may not find this enough of a test today) and looked as if he’d appreciate this drop in trip on some slightly better ground, so he can’t be dismissed despite racing off a career-high mark of 131. He’s a dour stayer and no doubt Richard Johnson will make plenty of use of him, so if he’s there two out, he might be a tough one to pass.






    Advice







    AMORE ALATO – 1pt win @ 4/1 (William Hill)









    2.15 Bangor-On-Dee – Shade Oak Stud Mares’ Handicap Chase.








    Rons Dream is at the top of the weights for this handicap having been in consistent form since switching to chasing at the end of 2017 for Peter Bowen. Her good run started when she finished a good second in a class 2 at Kempton over Christmas time, behind Anthony Honeyball’s Midnight Tune who has since landed the Grade 2 Jane Seymour at Sandown. Rons Dream then went on to finish runner-up on her next two starts, including over two and a half miles at the Bangor last month. Last time out she gained a deserved first victory over fences in a class 3 novice at Kelso, coming well clear of the second. The step up in trip suited the eight-year-old and the performance came on heavy ground so conditions will be fine for her on Saturday. Although carrying top weight in the race she is rated higher over hurdles, with her best performance a Listed success at Warwick last year. RONS DREAM should be full of confidence after winning last time and can gain another victory here.



    Also arriving here on the back of a win is Same Circus, trained by Donald McCain whose runners always have to be respected at the course. She has a similar profile to Rons Dream in that she ran consistently on her first three starts over fences before getting off the mark last time out. After a promising chase debut at Warwick where she finished runner-up, it was difficult for her to recover from a bad mistake next time out at Wetherby but she kept going for third. On her first start of 2018 the seven-year-old was stepped up to Listed company and was sent off as second favourite for the Yorkshire Silver Vase at Doncaster, where she finished fourth having been outpaced at the two and a half mile trip. Stepped up in distance for her latest run at Catterick, she stayed on well to get on top close home. Same Circus is open to further progress at over three miles but will have to in this company.







    Others to note include another last time out winner Midnight Target, who also gained her first win over fences at Huntingdon last month. The step up in distance suited the eight-year-old as she showed a good attitude to see of her rivals. She can give her running again but this a step up in grade from her previous class 4 victory. Sparkling River will be aiming for a third win over fences for Henry Oliver having won two of her five chase starts so far. Her first success came when she got the better of Same Circus at Warwick, but that came over half a mile shorter than Saturday’s distance. Her latest win was at Uttoxeter in January over two miles, six and a half furlongs where she kept finding more. The eight-year-old ran well last time to finish third upped to three miles, but may find one or two too strong for her on Saturday. Another taking on Same Circus again is the Paul Webber-trained Miss Tongabezi who finished a place ahead of that rival in the Listed race at Doncaster. However, she now has a bit to prove over this extra distance and after a below-par run last time.







    Advice






    RONS DREAM – 1pt win @ 100/30 (Sky Bet)









    3.15 Newbury – EBF & TBA Mares’ “National Hunt”Novices’ Hurdle Finale (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2)








    Midnight Tune tops the weights for this handicap having won three of her last four starts. The only defeat for Anthony Honeyball’s seven-year-old since the beginning of December came at the hands of La Bague Au Roi at Ascot, but it is possible that she wasn’t quite herself that day. She bounced back to form in no uncertain terms last time when winning a Grade 2 at Sandown Park last time and although she has a tough task on her hands to concede weight all round here, she is very much respected.






    Behind her at Sandown was Paul Nicholls’ If You Say Run who was probably just outstayed by the winner on the day. She has made steady progress this term and her latest effort was arguably her best run to date. She gets a 3lb pull in the weights with the winner and on this flatter track, I think there is every chance that she can reverse the placings.






    Nicky Henderson is no stranger to success in this race, having saddled three of the last eight winners and he is represented by Sunshade here. The five-year-old won her first two starts over hurdles before coming up short against the high-class Maria’s Benefit at Taunton last time. She didn’t seem to enjoy the soft ground on that occasion so Saturday’s conditions would be a worry but she has the excellent James Bowen taking a valuable 3lb off her back.






    Another trainer with a good recent record in the race is Charlie Longsdon who has won two of the last three renewals. This year he is represented by Jet Set who was running a big race at Sandown when falling at the second last on her most recent outing. She may have escaped a sizeable rise in the weights by coming down there and given her lightly-raced profile, it would be no surprise to see her improve a good deal on what she has shown so far.






    One of the more unusual mares in the race is Lady Of Lamanver who was actually first past the post in this race two years ago before being demoted to second. As a result, she retained her novice status and despite a lengthy absence, she made a winning return to action at Fontwell in November. She is another who would prefer quicker ground and now 10lb higher than the last time she won, she needs to have improved to figure here.






    Taking everything into account, the one I like the look of is OSCAR ROSE. Fergal O’Brien’s mares was a smart bumper performer but she hasn’t had the rub of the green over hurdles so far. I think a strongly-run 2m4f is what she is crying out for and her latest run, where the saddle slipped some way out, gave us an idea of what sort of ability she possesses. She has a very low weight on her return to handicap company and I think she has a strong each-way chance in what looks an open race.






    Advice







    OSCAR ROSE – 1pt e/w @ 15/2 (William Hill) (4 places 1/4 odds)










    3.25 Bangor-On-Dee – Broxton Gates Handicap Hurdle.







    ROSMUC RELAY arrives here in fine form for Kim Bailey as he looks to make it a hat-trick of wins under Rules, following success in an Irish point-to-point. He got off the mark at the first time of asking over hurdles in fine style, winning a class 4 novice at Leicester in January by nineteen lengths (although he was left clear at the last). After looking on-paced he found extra and his trainer has always thought that he would need the step up to three miles. Kept at around two and a half miles last month for a novice at Wetherby, the six-year-old again saw out the race strongly for a three and three quarter lengths success. Both of his wins have been on heavy ground, but that has helped his stamina come into play and he is by Presenting so better ground should suit. ROSMUC RELAY is making his handicap debut at Bangor off what looks to be a fair mark and he is open to a lot of progress over this extra distance. Kim Bailey is in form and the gelding can gain another victory on Saturday.






    Of the rest of the field Carnspindle also won last time out for Warren Greatrex. That was reward for two third place finishes previously and he was able to cope with the step up to class 2 company back over a longer trip. He got the better of Kim Bailey’s Sainte Ladylime that day who has subsequently won at Wetherby. He can give his running again with cheekpieces applied, but will need to find further improvement here. Bottomweight Chapel Stile is another who is looking to make it back-to-back wins for Nicky Richards. He is on the upgrade and gained his first success trying three miles for the first time at Doncaster last month. However, that came in a class 4 contest so he has to prove himself up in grade. One in the line-up who needs to bounce back is the Kerry Lee-trained King Of Fashion¸ who was pulled up in a Grade 3 handicap at Sandown last time. He has had a wind operation since though so could be interesting if returning to form.




    Advice






    ROSMUC RELAY – 2pts win @ 7/2 (bet365)








    3.50 Newbury – Doom Bar Handicap Chase.







    Sandy Thomson has had some well-documented struggles in getting Seeyouatmidnight to the track for his Grand National prep run, but it looks as if he’ll finally get his run here so that he can run in the big race in April. He shoulders top weight here and I would be surprised if he was 100% ready for this – he should come on for the run and be spot on for next month’s big race.





    Cold March has recently gone to Harry Whittington’s stable from Venetia Williams’ and reappeared with a moderate third behind Boite in a 2m3f hurdle at Taunton in January. Despite that being a fairly poor run, he is certainly much better over fences and his mark reflects that – he’s 17lb higher here. On his best form, he’d be competitive, but he does seem to prefer genuinely good ground and could find this too much of a test.





    In similar colours, Venetia Williams trains Plaisir D’Amour, who was pulled up in her only start this season at Cheltenham in the BetVictor Gold Cup. She was dropped 2lb for that and those atrocious conditions certainly wouldn’t have been to her liking. Now just 4lb higher than when bolting up at Cheltenham in April last season, she should have a big say in this if she’s not inconvenienced by the soft ground here. Aidan Coleman has been booked to ride this mare over Cold March and that should be a pointer, while she’s already won here at Newbury in soft ground, so there shouldn’t be any problems with the track either. She’s only a six-year-old too, so there’s every reason to believe that there will be more to come and I think she’ll be hard to keep out of the frame as she comes into the race a fresh horse unlike some others.






    Kayf Adventure only ran 11 days ago at Cheltenham and it wouldn’t surprise me if that had taken plenty out of him on ground that was pretty soft. He ran respectably behind Mister Whitaker though and has been dropped a pound for that, so if he’s fit and firing, he could go well under the champion jockey. This is his trip and although he’d probably prefer heavy ground, he certainly isn’t one of the many here who’ll be wanting a faster surface.






    One who is fresh and has been off a while is Dan Skelton’s Virgilio, who was in poor form when last seen, pulled up at Doncaster after finishing 8th at Aintree. He’s back down to 145 now though, just 3lb higher than when he won well at Aintree last May and if he’s back in form, he might go nicely – the big question with him is the ground, he’s always shown his best on much better ground than this.






    Currently favourite for this is the Paul Nicholls-trained SAMETEGAL, who ran three solid races in decent contests before disappointing at Sandown last time out. He’s down to a mark of 141 which looks very appealing and will have no problem at all with trip and ground, so all in all you can certainly see why he’s so well-fancied. However, he has seemed pretty one paced in his races so far this season, so will have to return to the form of when he won the Grade 3 Greatwood Gold Cup here last year in similar conditions in order to take the spoils here. A big positive for him is that his trainer has won this race in two of the last three years (Warrior’s Tale 2017, Rebel Rebellion 2015), so he certainly hails from a yard that knows the type of horse needed for this and he’ll surely go close at a venue he goes well at.






    Advice





    SAMETEGAL – 1pt win @ 4/1 (Paddy Power)

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (23rd March 2018),  lombie (24th March 2018)  


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