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    Default Lingfield , Newcastle, Friday 30/3/2018

    2.00 Lingfield – Betway All-Weather Marathon Championships Conditions Stakes .






    In what is the culmination of the stayers’ series in the All-Weather Champs, it does seem strange to see a horse that’s never raced over a trip this far towards the head of the market. There’s no question that Ed Dunlop’s Red Verdon is a smart horse and his Listed contest victory at Kempton in November was a decent performance. His win here over a mile and a half back in February was a very impressive effort visually and he looked to be in as rude health as possible, even though it’s questionable what he beat there. Although this extra distance could well draw out some improvement and this is as tight a track as you’d find for a first crack at two miles, I can’t help but think that there will be others finishing much stronger come the final furlong and I’m willing to swerve him at a short-looking price.







    One who certainly has no worries over trip, track or quality of race is Mark Johnston’s Watersmeet, who’s as tough a front-runner that you will find. He’s unbeaten in 2018, with three wins over two miles, including a very easy win here at Lingfield in February. This is a horse who’s been in the top two in 17 of his 21 starts on an artificial surface so everything seems in place for another big run. The only worry you can associate to his claims here is the fact that he’s drawn fairly wide in 7 and he could well fail to grab the lead if he’s tardy out of the stalls under Joe Fanning, but there’s not masses of early pace drawn inside him and he’s a very solid bet to go well.





    However, the two in the race that I would focus on both have form that puts them very close to Watersmeet, yet they are still bigger prices. The French raider, Funny Kid, from the stable of Christophe Ferland and with Maxime Guyon on board, has already met Mark Johnston’s horse this season and been beaten by a neck at Wolverhampton. Funny Kid looked the winner a furlong from home there but just seemed to be outbattled close home and that is certainly a concern, but this slightly shorter trip and tighter track may just play more to his strengths here and he surely won’t be far away again under Maxime Guyon from a good draw in stall 4.






    The only mare in the race is the Ralph Beckett-trained Mountain Bell and despite being the only contender without a run so far this season, her last run was an eye-opening win at Newcastle in December when she tackled this staying trip for the first time. Despite travelling keenly and being held up in the rear of the race for the first half of the contest, she made powerful headway in the final two furlongs to burst into the lead and stay on strongly, winning by two lengths with the likes of Watersmeet and Lord George well-beaten in behind. Her good from at Listed and Group 3 level over a mile and a half (including third in the Oaks trial at Lingfield, and a second and fourth in successive St Simon Stakes at Newbury) and would put her in the shake up here, but that strong-staying display on just her eighth start certainly adds fuel to the fire. She’s completely unexposed at the trip and if she can travel a little more comfortably this time and find a clear route through the pack, she could be a threat to all in receipt of 5lb – that weight allowance puts her top of the weight-adjusted ratings by 2lb. Of course, Beckett knows how to train a classy staying filly in the colours of Qatar Racing, but while MOUNTAIN BELL is certainly not yet in the league of Simple Verse, she’s a lightly-raced five-year-old who’s going the right way.





    Advice






    MOUNTAIN BELL – 1pt win @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)









    2.30 Lingfield – 32Red All-Weather Fillies’ And Mares’ Championships Conditions Stakes.







    This looks a completely wide-open edition of the Fillies & Mares final, with any one of six or seven holding legitimate claims. The highest rated mare in the field is the Charlie Fellowes-trained Mia Tesoro, who made a very low-key start to 2018 as she weakened tamely out of things behind Utmost in a Listed contest over a mile and a quarter here in February. She’s been shooting up the ratings when finishing in the top four in Listed races at big prices, but she hasn’t got her head in front since August 2016 and has been mostly running at a longer trip. You also can’t help but think she’s been a little flattered by those recent efforts and despite the booking of Andrea Atzeni, there should be some more progressive types in here.







    Summer Icon is a solid, highly-rated sort for Mick Channon and could go well judging by her second to the useful Second Thought last time out. However, she’s met another of today’s rivals, Zest, twice over C&D in the last three months and been beaten twice, so it’s fairly safe to assume that rival has the beating of her. James Fanshawe’s mare has some very good form over C&D to her name, including a second to Muffri’Ha in the Listed Fleur Du Lys and a cosy defeat of Summer Icon in February. She is one that seems to be in the best form of her career and if she can replicate either of those runs, she must have a very solid chance indeed in what looks an open race.






    Soul Silver and Carolinae met at Chelmsford in February and finished in that order, but both look to have a bit to find with the best mares in this, while Dean Ivory’s Lucymai was well beaten by Charlie Fellowes’ charge at Kempton on her last run, so looking at the form lines there, I think all three could struggle to come out on top.






    Instead, the most interesting challenge could come from William Haggas’ Diagnostic, who runs in the colours of Cheveley Park. Her three-year-old season was a rousing success with three wins from four runs, culminating in two very impressive handicap successes over 7f and 6f at Chelmsford. Despite the start of this season, her four-year-old campaign, looking disappointing on the face of it with two third place finishes, she has only been beaten a length both times and seemingly has been crying out for this extra distance. Her pedigree (by Dutch Art out of a Pivotal mare) suggests it’ll not be a problem for her and the way she’s won over 7f so far also indicates that the mile could well draw out further improvement. James Doyle is booked and this partnership teamed up so well in the Lincoln last week, so there are a lot of positives for the relatively unexposed DIAGNOSTIC in a race that is begging for a progressive sort to emerge from and take the spoils.





    Advice






    DIAGNOSTIC – 1pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power)







    3.05 Lingfield – Betway All-Weather Sprint Championships Conditions Stakes.






    On first glance, this really does look like a very strong renewal of this race, with six horses rated 109 and above. Current favourite is the classy Kachy, who is unbeaten in 2018 on synthetic surfaces for trainer Tom Dascombe and the race he won last time out, the Listed Cleves Stakes over C&D, could be a good pointer to what will happen here. Of course, the express early pace of Caspian Prince won’t be present in the race to drag them along as he did there, but you would still expect there to be a fair early battle for the lead with the likes of Kachy, Gifted Master and Gracious John all confirmed prominent racers. Kachy had to overcome a wide draw in 11 that day, but showed good early speed to sit on the coat tails of the leader – he could do a similar thing here from what is a much better draw in 5 – before moving towards the front and holding off his rivals close home. The form of the race looks pretty solid despite the first six all finishing within a length and a quarter of the winner and Kachy’s prominent racing style gives him the first crack at the race over those hold up horses who finished close behind him.







    Speaking of which, Kimberella won this contest last year and was just a short head behind Tom Dascombe’s horse in the Cleves on his penultimate start, so on those pieces of form, he’ll have a huge chance. A drop back to 5f at Wolverhampton last time out didn’t go well after he was hampered after a furlong and was never dangerous, but it will have kept the eight-year-old in good form and the return to 6f and a track where he’s always gone well (record is 3,1,1,2) are big positives. However, he’s not getting any younger now and his best efforts are seen with less frequency than they used to be – there may just be one or two on a curve that’s trending further upwards than his is now.






    One such horse could be the David O’Meara-trained Intisaab, who finished fourth over C&D in the Cleves after a troubled passage inside the final furlong which could well have cost him the half a length he finished behind the winner. He looks to be a horse that’s still improving as a seven-year-old and could well be up to reversing that Listed form in this granted a clear passage. On his last start, he won a very lucrative Local Group 3 in Qatar, with Hugo Palmer’s Gulliver soundly beaten in third (he’s one who may not have the raw pace for this). A strongly run race at this trip is ideal for him as he stays well and I think he could well go close at a decent price, but he will be ridden for luck by Martin Harley.






    While the Cleves Stakes gives us some good clues, on a line through Intisaab, Hugo Palmer’s other entry in the race, GIFTED MASTER, has the beating of all of those who raced in that Listed contest. The son of Kodiac was an easy winner of the Listed Golden Rose Stakes over C&D on his last start and was a good two lengths ahead of David O’Meara’s horse at the line, so if we’re treating the form as gospel, he should have a bit in hand of his rivals here. James Doyle gave the horse a lovely prominent ride on that occasion, and if he does the same here from a very nice draw in stall 3, he’ll either be leading or close to the front a furlong from home and will be a tough nut to crack in the final 100 yards with his confirmed stamina. Of course, many of the field will try to make sure Doyle can’t steal a march on them, but I can’t help but think that rounding the bend, they’ll be chasing GIFTED MASTER’s shadow. This is the highest rated horse in the race and I think he’ll confirm the handicapper’s assessment.






    Advice






    GIFTED MASTER – 2pts win @ 4/1 (Paddy Power)








    3.20 Newcastle – Betway Handicap.







    One of the horses vying for favouritism at the moment is Al Hamdany who has been in consistent form on the all-weather this winter for Marco Botti. After winning a class 3 at Lingfield in November he has given his running in five starts since, although he has not managed to get his head in front again. The four-year-old finished runner-up on his following two starts, before two creditable fourth-place finishes in class 2 company. On the latter of those he was beaten less than two lengths by Cosmeapolitan at Kempton and is now slightly better off at the weights. Last time out Al Hamdany was third at Wolverhampton behind Kevin Ryan’s in-form Mount Tahan. He looks likely to give his running again on Good Friday, but might just be vulnerable for win purposes.






    COSMEAPOLITAN is also at the head of the betting having got the better of Al Hamdany when he was last seen a month ago. He was suited by the longer straight at Kempton, compared to his previous runner-up finish at Lingfield, as he travelled smoothly into contention after being held up. The five-year-old then saw off his rivals with a bit in hand so he can confirm the form with Al Hamdany at Newcastle, which is a track that he should enjoy. Also, trainer Alan King has booked the services of Jamie Spencer whose style of riding should bring out the best in the horse. COSMEAPOLITAN can build on his Kempton performance at Newcastle and land another good prize on the all-weather.






    Alan King has strong hand in the contest as he also has Lexington Law in the line-up. The five-year-old had contested three runs over hurdles from September to November in 2017 but has since found his form with cheekpieces applied in two starts on the all-weather. To end 2017 he landed a class 4 at Lingfield, getting the better of Paul Nicholls’ useful Zubayr. He then followed up that performance with a victory over Friday’s course and distance, seeing out the race well. He has to be respected given the form he is in, but will have to find more up class from a wide draw, even with Connor Murtagh claiming a valuable 5lb.






    Of the rest of the field, the Hamdan Al Maktoum-owned Shabeeb is a fascinating contender for Roger Varian. He is unexposed for a five-year-old having only had the eight starts in his career, winning twice over ten furlongs as a three-year-old. However, he is now making his all-weather debut after being off the track since July 2017. It is interesting that his connections have now gelded him and kept him in training, but it looks to be a tough ask after his long absence. One who has been in fine form recently is Island Brave who has enjoyed himself on the all-weather this winter for Heather Main. He has racked up four wins from six starts since October, placing on the other two occasions. The four-year-old is now up in grade from class 3 level but can give his running again at Newcastle under Luke Morris. Last time out when runner-up at Lingfield he finished a neck ahead of Ed Dunlop’s Amazing Red who reopposes on Good Friday. That was Amazing Red’s first run since September but he will need to build on that to get involved again on his second start back.






    advice






    COSMEAPOLITAN – 1pt win @ 7/1 (Paddy Power)









    3.40 Lingfield – 32Red 3 Year Old All-Weather Championships Conditions Stakes.







    The stand out on ratings in this race is Corinthia Knight, who on a mark of 105 at least 7lb in hand of all of his rivals here. Archie Watson’s colt has forged a fine reputation on the all-weather and was most recently seen winning a Listed prize on the all-weather at Chantilly. He was also fourth at the Breeders’ Cup on the turf which gives him very strong form claims. However, he might not have things all his own way from stall 6 and I will therefore be looking to take him on at the head of the market.






    Jockey Adam McNamara has begun to forge a relationship with trainer Roger Charlton and has partnered his runner here, Breathless Times to victory on his last two starts. He got the better of Jamie Osborne’s Kion on his most recent outing, who has won since, but even though he is open to plenty of improvement, I think he has quite a bit to find and is therefore short enough at around 7/2.




    Another contender who has been in good form of late is Rock On Baileys, with Chris Dwyer’s filly having won her last five starts on an artificial surface. That run saw her win off a mark of 50 in November and she now finds herself on a lofty mark of 90. She is clearly in fine form with herself but she may come unstuck in this company.






    Amanda Perrett saddles an interesting runner in the shape of Count Otto who has won three of his last four starts since being fitted with the hood. He has continued to improve with each run as he has learned to settle but he could find it hard to get a run in stall 8.






    At the prices, I like the look of NEVER BACK DOWN who hasn’t been seen since winning at Wolverhampton in December. Hugo Palmer’s colt showed a smart turn of foot to win that day and got the better of a decent field which included Corinthia Knight (back in third). It is quite possible that the market leader was not at his best that day but this colt seems to appreciate a strong pace and given the strong finishing effort he produced last time, this race could set up nicely for him. He is available at as big as 6/1 with SkyBet and at that price, I think he has a strong each-way chance.






    Advice






    NEVER BACK DOWN – 1pt e/w @ 6/1 (SkyBet)









    3.55 Newcastle – 32Red Burradon Stakes (Listed Race)








    George Scott’s Another Batt had some very good form to his name as a 2yo including a Listed victory in Turkey at the back end of the season. The gelding also ran a big race to finish third in the Listed Denford Stakes at Newbury behind James Tate’s Hey Gaman. On his best form, he would have a chance here but he has to concede at least 3lb to the whole field and tries a mile for the first time.





    In terms of the betting, Jeremy Noseda’s progressive Gronkowski heads most lists having completed the hat-trick at Kempton last time. The Lonhro colt has been talked about as a potential Kentucky Derby contender by connections and having got into trouble last time, he showed a good attitude to get the job done. He also has form over course and distance which I think is important given the stiff nature of the track but this is the toughest field he has faced to date so I think he could be worth taking on.






    One potential conqueror could be Nyaleti who was one of the leading two-year-old fillies last season, winning the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes as well as finishing placed in a number of other Group races. She did run below-par at the end of the season in the Fillies’ Mile but that was at the end of a long season and I would not be surprised to see her bounce back to form following a break. She still has to prove that she stays a mile as she look to be outstayed by other rivals on both attempts last season but she get a small allowance from her male rivals and is unlikely to be too far away.



    John Gosden will be looking forward to getting Purser’s season underway with the Mizzen Mast colt having been placed in Group 3 company on his final start at two. He was well-fancied that day at Newmarket but he was turned out pretty quickly after winning impressively at Lingfield so that race may have just come too soon for him. Even taking that into account, he was still only beaten just over four lengths by some smart performers on that occasion and he looks one who could improve as the season goes on.






    However, the one who makes most appeal is GREAT PROSPECTOR who represents last year’s winning trainer Richard Fahey. The colt was a very good winner on his debut last year and was then pitched into Group company when a close third in the Superlative Stakes behind leading 2000 Guineas fancy Gustav Klimt. He was then switched to the big sales races at York and Doncaster, where on both occasions, he looked as though he would appreciate racing over further than 6f. He didn’t seem to enjoy himself in the Dewhurst on his final start at two but he starts off in calmer waters and with the step up to a mile likely to suit, I think he is worth an each-way bet at 15/2.





    Advice







    GREAT PROSPECTOR – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (William Hill)









    4.10 Lingfield – Sunbets All-Weather Mile Championships Conditions Stakes.







    William Haggas landed a big prize last Saturday and he will be hoping that his stable can find their way into the Winner’s Enclosure here with Second Thought. A winner of the 3yo sprint race at this meeting last year, he came up short in top company on the turf but has returned to form since being switched back to the all-weather. A cosy success at Kempton in November was followed by a strong-finishing victory at Wolverhampton last time, where he was still last turning for home but ran on well in the closing stages to land the spoils. He is the highest-rated of this field but given the way races can unfold at Lingfield, I wouldn’t be keen on backing him at 6/4.






    I will therefore be placing my hopes in the hands of ARCANADA who has won his last three starts, including two over course and distance. The form of his latest win at Wolverhampton has also received a boost with the runner-up Mr Owen finishing first past the post in the Winter Derby. Tom Dascombe’s five-year-old tends to race prominently so being drawn in stall 3 is ideal and he should be able to get a good early position. He has also beaten a couple of his other rivals here (Gabrial and Sacred Act) in recent starts and with just 2lb to find on ratings, I fancy him to upset the favourite here.






    If anything is to come from outside the first two in the betting, it could be the resurgent Goring who has won his last four starts for Eve Johnson Houghton. He got up in the shadow of the post to deny Mr Scaramanga at Lingfield last time and if the leading contenders get racing too early, he could be the one to pick up the pieces.






    I should also give a mention to Gabrial who ran a fine race to finish fourth in the Lincoln last weekend. Richard Fahey’s veteran rarely lets his connections down and having been beaten less than two lengths by Arcanada on two occasions over course and distance, he could be a little over-priced. I would be surprised if he could win from stall 8 but on his run last week alone, he shouldn’t be as big as 33/1 in the market.






    Advice






    ARCANADA – 1pt win @ 100/30 (bet365)








    4.40 Lingfield – Betway Easter Classic All-Weather Middle Distance Championships Conditions Stakes.







    The key piece of form for this race looks be the Group 3 Winter Derby over course and distance last month, as the top two from that contest are currently vying for favouritism.






    Mr Owen was first passed the post in the Derby, but the places were reversed with Master The World after he badly interfered with the ‘runner-up’ on the run in. Mr Owen had been in good form on the all-weather since switching from France to David Simcock, finishing placed on all three of his starts on the artificial surfaces.. This included a good third in the Listed Hyde Stakes at Kempton over a mile and he then went on to land a Listed race at Deauville returned to France. Upped in trip for the Winter Derby after finishing a creditable runner-up to Tom Dascombe’s Arcanada at Wolverhampton, he saw out the extra distance well at Lingfield. The six-year-old came with a strong run under Jamie Spencer but then veered right towards the finish, affected by the shadow of the big screen on the track. The positions with Master The World were understandably changed, but that performance made him look a strong contender for the Easter Classic. However, the trainer’s first instinct after the race was that he would be better over a mile with the way that he travelled through the race.






    Master The World was awarded the Winter Derby and was a big-priced winner at odds of 16/1. He was gaining his second win at the course and has built up a good record overall at Lingfield. His previous victory over course and distance came in the Listed Churchill Stakes in November, where he got the better of the reopposing Victory Bond. He seemed to show improved form that day as he quickened nicely to win by a length and three quarters. The William Haggas-trained Victory Bond was sent off as strong favourite for the contest but Master The World saw him off well, so the placings can be confirmed again on Friday. After a below-par run at the course in December, Master The World bounced back to form in the Winter Derby and he can make another bold bid to land the Easter Classic for David Elsworth.







    John Gosden has two interesting, unexposed runners in the line-up as he fields Utmost and STAR ARCHER. The former would be dangerous if getting a soft lead, but was swamped in the final furlong when finishing sixth in the Winter Derby last time. Therefore, a chance is taken on STAR ARCHER to build on his potential as he is upped in grade. Connections have held the-four-year-old in high regard, but unfortunately he had a long absence after the 2016 season. He was gelded before making a return to the track in January this year and the four-year-old showed he retained his ability with a comfortable success at Wolverhampton, which he then followed up back at the same course last month. He got the better of Kevin Ryan’s Mount Tahan that day, who had won his previous two starts and has won again since. Last time out STAR ARCHER could only finish third at Kempton but the race was not run to suit as he was held up in a steadily run race. He can bounce back to form at Lingfield on Friday and show why his top connections have decided to keep him in training.






    Advice






    STAR ARCHER – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (bet365)(1/4 odds)

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (30th March 2018)  


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