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    Default Aintree Day 1 - 12/4/2018

    1.45 Aintree – Big Buck’s Celebration Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)






    Cheltenham Festival form works out to varying degrees across this meeting but this is one race in which that form is worth keeping an eye on. In fact, eight of the last nine winners had run in either the Arkle or the JLT at Cheltenham. Of this year’s field, Brain Power finished second in the 2m race, whilst Finian’s Oscar (5th) and Modus (8th) both contested the 2m4f prize.




    Since the race was upgraded to a Grade 1 in 2012, it is little surprise that the race has lent itself to a proven Graded performer. Only one of the last six winners had not won a Graded chase prior to lining up here, a positive point for the two Graded winners in this year’s race, Cyrname and Modus.





    When looking at the record of trainers, horses saddled by Paul Nicholls have struggled, with the likes of Vibrato Valtat, Dodging Bullets and Al Ferof all having been beaten in this race. Not the best of stats for his two runners this time around Cyrname and Modus.





    Captain Conan remains the only winning favourite in the last nine renewals but even so, with all nine winners coming from the first three in the betting, it seems sensible to stick with those towards the head of the market. Brain Power and Cyrname look likely to be involved in a fight for favouritism in the morning, with Finian’s Oscar next best in the market.




    Shortlist




    Brain Power




    Finian’s Oscar




    Nicky Henderson is one of only two trainers to win this race on more than one occasion so we have to respect the claims of Brain Power who steps up to 2m4f for the first time. The seven-year-old picked up the pieces in the Arkle last time and although he has yet to get his head in front in Graded company, the way he ran in Grade 1 company at Ascot and Sandown before falling suggested he was up to this level.






    If there are any stamina doubts with him, then the one to take advantage could be Finian’s Oscar who looked to need every yard of 2m 4½f when winning at Cheltenham in November. Colin Tizzard’s six-year-old ran much better at Cheltenham last time and if he can improve a bit on that, he could be the one to land the spoils.







    2.20 Aintree – Doom Bar Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)






    Cheltenham form is particularly strong in this contest with 11 of the 13 winners since the race was upgraded having won or placed at the Festival. The two horses who placed this year both come from the Fred Winter as the Dan Skelton-trained Nube Negra finished third with Padleyourowncanoe in fourth for Colin Tizzard.





    Although the two horses mentioned above have placed form at the Festival, a key race to focus on is the Triumph as 13 of the last 18 winners (including 6 in the past 10 years) had contested the Grade 1. Apple’s Shakira was a strong favourite at Cheltenham but found a trio of Irish raiders too strong as she finished fourth. Also involved in the race was Gumball who was pulled up in the end.






    Away from the Cheltenham Festival, the main trials to look at are the Grade 2 Finesse Hurdle at Cheltenham in January and the Grade 2 Adonis at Kempton over Christmas time. The Finesse was won in good style by Apple’s Shakira, although she was given more of a test than in her previous two British wins at the same course. Unfortunately we won’t see the winner of the Adonis at Aintree this year as the Alan King-trained Redicean has not quite recovered from his run in the Triumph. The seven-length runner-up at Kempton was Malaya for Paul Nicholls with the French raider Beau Gosse further back in third.






    Apple’s Shakira scores highly on the trends as she also meets three of the other key pointers. Favourites for the race have a strong record with 8 of the 13 runnings since the contest was upgraded having gone to the market leader. She is currently sharing favouritism with Nicky Henderson’s We Have A Dream. In addition, fillies have to be respected and she is one of three in the line-up along with Malaya and the outsider Cristal Icon. French-bred horses also do well in the race and there are only three this year who do not fit the bill: Nube Negra, Padleyourowncanoe and Les Arceaux.





    Shortlist




    Apple’s Shakira




    Malaya


    We Have A Dream






    The two currently vying for favouritism in the Juvenile Hurdle are Apple’s Shakira and We Have A Dream. The former was well-fancied for success in the Triumph after winning her first three starts in Britain for Nicky Henderson in good style. However, she raced quite keenly at Cheltenham before finishing fourth in the race, but she holds strong claims at Aintree if bouncing back to form. Her main rival looks to be stablemate We Have A Dream who has a perfect record in Britain of four wins from four, including a Grade 1 victory in the Finale at Chepstow in January. He did not make it the Cheltenham Festival which could help as he arrives at Merseyside as a fresh horse. Making up the shortlist is Malaya who has not finished outside of the top two since joining Paul Nicholls from France. His record is two wins from five in Britain, featuring Listed success in the Wensleydale Hurdle at Wetherby in November.







    2.50 Aintree – Betway Bowl Chase (Grade 1)






    Aintree’s closest contest to the Cheltenham Gold Cup, it’s no surprise that horses who ran in that showpiece 3m+ chase at Prestbury Park three weeks earlier have a decent record here – 23 of the last 34 winners of the Bowl had done so. However, it has been prudent to oppose those who have fought out the finish in the Gold Cup, rather opting for the horses who finished as also-rans or had their race ended early in the Gold Cup.






    Last year’s winner Tea For Two finished a distant seventh in the showpiece event at Prestbury Park and could well go much better here on a track that is clearly much more suitable for him, while Definitly Red finished one place ahead of Nick Williams’ charge at Cheltenham but has shown progressive form this season, including at this track when winning the Grade 2 Many Clouds Chase in December. Of course Might Bite was a gallant second to Native River in the Gold Cup and should almost certainly go well here, but it remains to be seen how much that effort took out of the horse, especially as this race will be run on softer ground than his ideal.






    Interestingly, of the last 20 Aintree Bowl winners, 11 finished in the first four in Kempton Park’s King George VI Chase at Christmas, another boost for Might Bite and Tea For Two who were first and third respectively in that race. Double Shuffle finishes second there and Tom George’s charge also gets a tick in this particular box. The Lexus Chase is the best Irish guide for this race, but no contenders in this year’s Bowl competed in that race this season.






    Four of the last seven winners of the Betway Bowl have actually run in the race before, so that’s a positive for Bristol De Mai and Tea For Two, the latter of course being last year’s winner.



    None of the last six winners won last time out, good news for all our runners here, while the betting market seems to have a good grasp on this race – a favourite or second favourite has won this race in six of the last eight renewals. Might Bite and Bristol De Mai currently head the market and it would be no surprise if the winner was one of those two.





    Shortlist





    Bristol De Mai





    Might Bite





    Tea For Two





    With his Gold Cup second place standing out as an excellent piece of recent form, Nicky Henderson’s Might Bite is surely the one to beat here – his victory in the King George VI Chase at Kempton this Christmas was another top performance at the highest level and if he’s at his best, the rest could find it very difficult to find what Native River did to beat him at Cheltenham. However, there are doubts despite returning to a more suitable flat track – the likely very soft ground and proximity to a hard race at Cheltenham don’t seem ideal preparation, so it’s possible to find reasons to oppose this odds-on favourite, even if he is the standout on talent and recent form.





    Last year’s winner, Tea For Two, is another who would probably prefer better ground, but his defeat of Cue Card last year showed that he was definitely worth his place at the top table of 3m chasing, even if that is only on these flatter tracks. He doesn’t seem to enjoy Cheltenham and his seventh in the Gold Cup after finishing a close third to Might Bite in the King George wasn’t his best effort, so this track should see him back to his best and he should be a player returned to the scene of his best effort so far.





    However, it is the recently ‘wind-opped’ Bristol De Mai who comes out on top of the trends table, with only his flop in the King George and non-participation in the Gold Cup counting against him. Although those two are very relevant and strong trends, this season could see a change, especially as the Gold Cup was contested in such soft ground and this race looks to be too. A left-handed flat track in very soft ground is exactly what he wants and even though Might Bite’s dismissal of him at Kempton at Christmas lives in the memory, he could well bounce back in a big way here. He’ll love conditions, which is something you can’t say for many of these and who knows what positive effect the wind operation may have had on Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge.







    3.25 Aintree – Betway Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1)







    This race has been a particularly good one for Irish challengers with eighteen of the forty-two renewals of the race going to horses trained across the Irish Sea. Despite being outnumbered most years they have a very strong record and Supasundae will be looking to enhance that this time around.





    Last year’s edition of the race has also been a good pointer towards finding the winner and two of the field contested the 2017 Aintree Hurdle. The second and third renew rivalry again with admirable veterans My Tent Or Yours and The New One both in the line-up. Unfortunately last year’s winner Buveur D’Air will not have the chance to defend his crown as he is not quite at full fitness following his second success in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham.






    Previous winning form at this meeting is also useful with nine of the last seventeen winners having previously won at Aintree during this week. The New One and My Tent Or Yours both tick this box as well. The New One won a thrilling renewal of this race in 2014 as he got the better of Rock On Ruby by a head. My Tent Or Yours was successful a year earlier in the Top Novices’ Hurdle and they will both be hoping to use their previous Aintree experience to help them on Thursday. Supasundae has strong Aintree form from last year having been runner-up to Yanworth in the Stayers Liverpool Hurdle.






    A key trend when looking at the British runners is that every British-trained winner had run at the Cheltenham Festival. This year there are two horses who fit the bill who both ran in the Stayers Hurdle. L’Ami Serge was eighth in the contest and The New One finished down the field upped to three miles for the first time.






    Shortlist





    The New One





    My Tent Or Yours





    Supasundae





    The two veterans The New One and My Tent Or Yours looks to have strong chances in the Aintree Hurdle having finished second and third in the contest last year. The former mentioned will be hoping to reverse the form having showed that he retains all of his ability this season as a ten-year-old. Before the Cheltenham Festival he had won twice, including a Grade 2 at Haydock, and finished runner-up on the other two occasions. Things did not go to plan in the Stayers Hurdle but he can bounce back to form at Aintree. Eleven-year-old My Tent Or Yours has only run the once in 17/18, getting the better of The New One in the Grade 2 International Hurdle in December. He has finished runner-up in the Aintree Hurdle for the last two years and will be hoping to go one better this time around. Favourite for the race is Irish raider Supasundae following his second-place finish to Penhill in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham. The drop back in trip could be ideal for him and he looks to hold a strong chance of gaining an Aintree win after only finding Yanworth too strong at the meeting last year.









    4.05 Aintree – Randox Health Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase







    The fences used for the Grand National present a unique challenge for the horses and jockeys involved and it is therefore no surprise that previous course experience can prove valuable. Since 2005, nine of the thirteen winners had run over the fences before so it seems sensible on that group this time around. Last year’s runner-up Balnaslow is one such horse with previous experience to call on as well as the likes of Wonderful Charm, Bear’s Affair, Unioniste and On The Fringe.






    Given that the races is restricted to amateur jockeys, there can be a large disparity between the ability and experience of those taking part. The fact that James King, Jamie Codd, Nina Carberry, Sam Waley-Cohen, Jamie Hamilton, Richard Harding and Willie Twiston-Davies have all won recently is no fluke as the riding cream tends to rise to the top. It may seem simple but it is best to focus on the better known jockeys as invariably they have an advantage in this race.






    Recent form has been a strong pointer in recent years and on the whole it is best to focus on those who finished in the first three on their most recent start. Applying that to this year’s field leaves eight horses on the wrong side of the trend but with seven of those having run in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham, they can be forgiven a below-par showing. The one horse who didn’t line up at Cheltenham is Vincitore and considering he was beaten in a point-to-point last time, it seems best to steer clear of him.






    Whilst it may be possible to forgive one bad run, only two of the last 25 winners had not won a race earlier in the season so it seems best to look back a little further into the form. There are six horses who have yet to get their head in front this term, namely Balnaslow, Distime, Gallery Exhibition, Mon Parrain, On The Fringe and Vincitore.


    A final factor to consider is the betting and it is fair to say that the market has proved a strong guide over the years. Last year’s winner Dineur was just the fourth winner in 25 years to come from outside the first four in the betting so it is best to let the market guide our thoughts. Grand Vision looks likely to be popular in the market along with the likes of Balnaslow, Wonderful Charm and On The Fringe.




    Shortlist




    Wonderful Charm





    Grand Vision





    Bear’s Affair






    Paul Nicholls’ Wonderful Charm is no stranger to the Aintree Grand National fences having twice taken part in the main event and whilst his stamina may have been stretched over 4m2f, there is every chance that his experience could stand him in good stead here. He does have to bounce back from a below-par display at Cheltenham last time but he was once rated as high as 159 and looks to have strong claims here.






    Colin Tizzard’s Grand Vision has enjoyed an excellent season already, winning two handicap chases either side of a fine run at Newbury behind the progressive Daklondike. He ran well to finish sixth at Cheltenham last time but his stamina may just have let him down in the closing stages of the race. The booking of Jamie Codd certainly catches the eye and it would be no surprise to see the grey make a bold bid.






    The shortlist is completed by Bear’s Affair who was seventh in this race last year. He also has some back class having won a handicap chase on the Mildmay course off 145 in 2015 and he also has two other victories at Aintree to his name. He would probably prefer quicker ground but he could run better than his sizeable odds suggest if coping with conditions.









    4.40 Aintree – Zut Media Red Rum Handicap Chase (Grade 3)








    One of the strongest trends in recent years has been the success of younger horses, as although Oiseau De Nuit won at the age of eleven in 2013, only two of the last 29 winners were older than nine. Most of the sixteen runners in this year’s field sit on the right side of this pattern, although there are four horses who miss out, the pair of ten-year-olds Overtown Express and Sizing Platinum, the eleven-year-old Gino Trail and the twelve-year-old veteran, Savello.






    Another strong trend has concerned the weight carried by winners with only two horses having carried more than 11st 2lb to victory since 1999. If we apply that to this year’s field, it removes the top four as they appear on the racecard, Gino Trail, Overtown Express, Tommy Silver and Sizing Platinum.






    The reason for that may be that the less-exposed runners tend to sit towards the foot of the weights in these sorts of races and therefore it is no surprise that novices have fared well in recent renewals. In fact, a novice has won nine of the last sixteen races. However, they aren’t particularly well-represented this year with just three contenders; Tommy Silver (who already falls foul of the 11st2lb cut off), Robinshill and Vosne Romanee.







    Aintree experience and good efforts on a flat track have been positive factors over the years, especially when a horse has run well at this track and even the Grand National Festival before. Those with some good performances here in the past include Theinval, Bun Doran, Theflyingportrait and Baby King – they all need respecting.






    In terms of trials, the Grand Annual has proved a good pointer in recent seasons, with seven of the last nineteen winners running in the Cheltenham Festival finale. This year’s renewal is represented by Theinval and Gino Trail, who finished fourth and second respectively, as well as Doitforthevillage and Sizing Platinum, who were unplaced. However, this year’s Grand Annual was a particularly taxing affair on soft/heavy ground and it may have taken plenty out of these horses.






    The final factor to consider is the betting and although there has only been one winning favourite in the past decade, the market has still proved a strong guide to finding the winner. 13 of the last 19 winners came from the first five in the betting, so it may be best to focus your attention on King’s Socks, Theinval, Bun Doran, Gino Trail and Tommy Silver who sit towards the head of the market in this year’s race.





    Shortlist





    Theinval





    Bun Doran




    King’s Socks





    Robinshill






    With the Grand Annual having proved a useful guide in recent seasons, it is little surprise that Theinval sits towards the head of the betting for this race and also sits at the top of the trends table – he’s now a staple diet in these two-mile handicap chases and is sure to go well if over his exertions in that soft/heavy ground Grand Annual which turned into a very messy contest. Still, he’d certainly prefer better ground than he’s likely to get and may find one or two mudlarks too good in these conditions.







    King’s Socks was highlighted as a ‘plot’ in the run up to Cheltenham, but failed to make good on that billing, finishing fifth in the Plate. David Pipe’s charge may find this drop back to two miles a good move judging by how he weakened up the hill at Cheltenham and his mark looks workable given he travelled so well for much of that race a month ago. He looks as if he’ll be hard to keep out of the frame and the market agrees.







    One who certainly will like this two mile, soft ground test is Bun Doran, who was a good third in the race last season off the same mark he races off today. He’s lightly raced this season with just three starts to his name and comes into the race a fresh horse with his ideal conditions. If Paddy Brennan can time his run to be a little later than when Adrian Heskin hit the front three out last year, I think Tom George’s seven-year-old will be bang there and rates an excellent each-way bet as the co-leader in the trends table.







    The final member of the shortlist is the Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Robinshill, who has been keeping some lofty company recently in the novice division. He was a tailed-off fifth in the Arkle and wasn’t given a hard time, so that shouldn’t have taken too much out of him, while the form of his first two chasing wins at Ludlow is half decent and would give him a chance, especially off a mark of 140, just 3lb higher than for the latter five-length triumph. The worry would be that he’d prefer better ground, but there are worse 20/1 shots I’m sure.








    5.15 Aintree – Goffs Nickel Coin Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2)







    This race is still only in its infancy as a Grade 2 so trends are hard to come by but one thing worth considering is that favourites don’t have the best of records. The shortest price winner in the last nine years was Candy Creek who won at 9/2 in 2009 and since then we have seen winners at 20/1, 25/1 and 28/1. It therefore looks as though it might be worth taking on the current market leader Getaway Katie Mai.






    Anthony Honeyball won this race with Eleven Fifty Nine in 2012 and he looks to have another leading contender this time around in the shape of Duhallow Gesture. The six-year-old has won both of her starts to date, with her latest victory coming in a Listed prize at Huntingdon in December. She has presumably been kept back with this prize in mind and looks one of the more likely contenders in the finale.






    Emma Lavelle’s also looks to have a leading hope in Dissavril who won on her debut for the yard in January when winning a Listed bumper at Market Rasen in January. She got the better of Nick Williams’ Aimee De Sivola that day, whose form ties in closely with a number of today’s rivals including Posh Trish. The fact that she has already shown good form on heavy ground is a positive with tomorrow in mind and she warrants plenty of respect.






    Dame Rose broke the duck for four-year-olds in last year’s race and there are a couple in this year’s race who make plenty of appeal. Philip Hobbs’ Cedar Valley was an impressive winner of a Taunton bumper a month ago and did so on heavy ground. She is unexposed but it would be no surprise to see her run well with the Champion Jockey onboard.





    However, the juvenile to focus on could be Buildmeupbuttercup who took her record in bumpers to two from three when winning at Ascot last time. She was beaten under a penalty at Lingfield in January but got back on track last time and if the fitting of a hood for the first time ekes out further improvement, she could run better than her sizeable odds suggest.





    Shortlist




    Duhallow Gesture




    Dissavril





    Buildmeupbuttercup

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (12th April 2018),  chesser (12th April 2018)  


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