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    Default Aintree Day 3 including The Grand National - Saturday 14/4/2

    1.45 Aintree – Gaskells Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)






    With novices having won eight of the last twelve renewals of this race (and three out of the past four years), it could be a good idea to look for an unexposed improver – the likes of Tikkanbar, Now McGinty and Golan Fortune fall into this category. However, it can be difficult for younger horses to get involved as five-year-olds have only won this race twice. There is only one who lines up this year so Shannon Bridge could find it difficult to get his head in front.





    Cheltenham form has to be respected as four out of the past seven winners ran at the Festival. There are a number in the line-up who arrive here after Cheltenham including the current top two in the betting Dream Berry and Louis’ Vac Pouch. The best finishing position was produced by Connetable who was third in the Pertemps Network Final for Paul Nicholls. However, a contender who was not involved at Cheltenham is Debece, who has not been seen on the track since finishing third in the Sefton at the Aintree meeting last year.






    Winning form this season is also important as twelve of the last fourteen winners had won earlier in the campaign. Most of the runners have been successful in 17/18, including Now McGinty who arrives here looking to make it a hat-trick. Another to mention is Tikkanbar who won his first two starts this season before running below-par in the Grade 2 Classic Hurdle at Cheltenham in January.



    It is also worth noting runners in the colours of leading owner JP McManus who has had several horses hit the frame in this contest in the last three seasons. Since 2015, McManus has had eleven runners in the race, of which six have finished in the first five. He has two runners in the race this year, Dream Berry who is the current market leader, and Stamp Your Feet.


    Shortlist




    Now McGinty




    Tikkanbar




    Prime Venture




    No Hassle Hoff





    This looks a wide-open contest with favourite for the race currently at odds of 8/1. Now McGinty arrives here in fine form for trainer Stuart Edmunds as he is looking to make it a hat-trick of wins at Aintree. The seven-year-old is relatively lightly-raced for his age and has found his form since cheekpieces have been applied and with Tom O’Brien taking over in the saddle. He is up in class but has to be respected after winning by twenty lengths at Warwick last time. Tikkanbar has also been progressive this season for Neil Mullholland, winning twice before a below-par run in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in January. If bouncing back to form he could be a major player at Aintree. Others to note include the Evan Williams’ trained-Prime Venture and No Hassle Hoff for Dan Skelton.








    2.25 Aintree – Betway Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)







    This race Was upgraded to Grade 1 status in 2014 following a high class roll of honour, including the likes of Peddlers Cross, Spirit Son and Simonsig in recent years. Willie Mullin has won the two of the last three renewals with Yorkhill following up Nichols Canyon’s success in 2015.Last year the Mersey was won by Finian’s Oscar who has this year made it back-to-back wins at the Aintree meeting.




    A trend that reflects the quality of the race is that sixteen of the last twenty winners started favourite or second favourite. The market leader this year is Black Op, who ran a fine race to finish runner-up to the mighty Samcro at the Cheltenham Festivak. The next horse in the betting is On The Blind Side who brings a perfect record of three wins from three for trainer Nicky Henderson.






    Henderson has a fine record in the race, winning back-to-back renewals in 2011 and 2012, but Paul Nicholls has the best recent form as he won the race three times between 2004 and 2008 with just the three runners. He has since built on that statistic with a record of four winners and three places from 11 runners. Although Nicholls does not have a contender this year, Henderson saddles the well-fancied On The Blind Side. Runners trained by Dan Skelton and Nicky Richards also have to be respected, with the former represented by Momella and the latter by Better Getalong.






    Cheltenham form is also a strong guide to the race as seven of the past eight winners running at the Festival. The placement of the two festivals, just three weeks to a month apart, gives most horses a good amount of time to rest and recover from their Cheltenham exploits, especially novices’ who in general seem to bounce back fairly quickly from hard races. The Ballymore is particularly important to consider (producing five of the winners) and Black Op was an excellent second in the race. The Supreme is also represented this year with the sixth-placed Western Ryder taking his chance at Aintree.




    Shortlist





    Black Op





    On The Blind Side





    Western Ryder


    Black Op is the market leader after his runner-up to the potential superstar Samcro in the Ballymore at the Cheltenham Festival for Tom George. That looks to be very strong form and he can continue the good record of Cheltenham runners going on to the Mersey. Unfortunately On The Blind Side was forced to miss the Ballymore, but he now puts his unbeaten record on the line at Aintree. The six-year-old has won two Grade 2s these season, including an impressive nine lengths success at Sandown when last seen in December. Making up the shortlist is Western Ryder for Warren Greatrex who ran well to finish sixth in the Supreme.








    3.00 Aintree – Doom Bar Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)








    This race has been a good stepping stone for further big-race success since its upgrade to Grade 1 status in 1995. Three winners have subsequently gone on to win the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, with the victories of Finian’s Rainbow and Sprinter Sacre coming in recent times.






    The starting point with regards to trends for the race has to be the Arkle Trophy at the Cheltenham Festival. Eighteen of the last twenty-three winners contested the Arkle (bar the abandoned Festival). Looking to confirm this form in this year’s edition is Petit Mouchoir. There was support for the seven-year-old to reverse the Irish Arkle form with Footpad at Cheltenham, but he got into a battle for the lead with Saint Calvados and the pair could not keep up the pace. He went onto finish a well-beaten third, but has to be respected at Aintree if able to settle better.






    Paul Nicholls saddles one in the race this year in a bid to continue his fine record in the contest. The champion-trainer has won the Maghull six times since 1999, with San Benedeto successful last year. Therefore, Diego Du Charmil who finished runner-up in the Grade 2 Kingmaker at Warwick in February. Henry De Bromhead also has a good record in the race and he looks to hold strong chance of building on that with Petit Mouchoir.






    Another strong trend for the race is that there has only been one winner sent off outside the first three in the betting since 1996. The betting this time around is headed by Petit Mouchoir, followed by Lady Buttons and Diego Du Charmil. This shows that the horses who have ran at Cheltenham are fancied to do well following that up at Aintree.






    Shortlist





    Petit Mouchoir





    Diego Du Charmil






    Two trainers who have a good record in the Maghull look to hold strong claims again this time around. The Henry De Bromhead-trained Petit Mouchoir was an exciting recruit to chasing this season based on his Grade 1 hurdling form and he made a very promising debut over fences when winning at Punchestown in October. However, he suffered a setback and was not seen again until the Irish Arkle in February. He ran well that day to finish runner-up to the high-class Footpad, although he could not manage to reverse the form at Cheltenham. If settling better Petit Mouchoir could be hard to beat at Aintree. The main danger could be Diego Du Charmil for Paul Nicholls who will be looking to gain his seventh win in the race since 1999.









    3.40 Aintree – Betway Handicap Chase (Grade 3)


    With eight of the last ten winners being rated between 134 and 140, that gives us an excellent starting point when it comes to eliminating some horses from this puzzle – just six horses fit that bracket this year: Ibis Du Rheu, Thomas Patrick, Casse Tete, On Tour, Holly Bush Henry and Pearl Swan.






    In conjuction with that, only one horse has won this race carrying more than 11st in the last 13 years, so the likes of the well-fancied Oldgrangewood and Rocklander will have to defy this particular statistic. All the above mentioned horses in the ratings bracket carry less than 11st so the shortlist if you’re following the trends religiously is at 6.






    Still, it’s worth exploring the other trends in the race, especially the one that tells us that eleven of the last 20 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival. Ibis Du Rheu, Casse Tete and Wakanda are three of the eight horses that fit this trend this time around.






    Irish-trained horses have only one this race once in the last 40 runnings, so you should be wary of the likes of Heist, Paper Lantern and Bearly Legal, while trainers with a good record in the race include Peter Bowen, who saddles Pearl Swan here.






    horses aged ten or older don’t have a great record in the contest, a black mark in the boxes of Pearl Swan, On Tour and Hammersly Lake, but when you look at the fact that 5 of the last 6 winners have won over at least 3m (over fences or hurdles), Pearl Swan comes back into the reckoning, along with Thomas Patrick, Holly Bush Henry and Viconte Du Noyer amongst others.







    Shortlist




    Thomas Patrick




    Ibis Du Rheu




    Pearl Swan




    Casse Tete







    With the key trends being related to ratings and weight, it could be shrewd to discount any horse carrying more than 11st here as they come in above the high-water mark of 140 in the ratings. Ibis Du Rheu sits closest to going over that number, rated 140, and sits right at the top of the trends table as well. Paul Nicholls’ charge ran well in the Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase at Cheltenham a month ago and won’t have too many problems with a softer surface here again, even though he’d ideally like better ground. The step up to 3m could draw out more improvement, especially on this flatter track and he looks a decent bet to be thereabouts.







    Thomas Patrick is currently heading the market at the time of writing and judging by his authoritative success under the champion jockey, Richard Johnson, last time out at Newbury, he deserves to be well fancied. He likes soft ground, stays well and fits most of the main trends – only his no-show at Cheltenham is a worry trends-wise, but with the sapping nature of many of the contests there, it may actually be a positive that he had an easier time of things at Newbury instead. He is short enough for a race of this nature, though and some better value may be found at bigger prices.







    Speaking of which, Peter Bowen’s record in the race is a good one and his entry, Pearl Swan, has been very lightly raced this season – just once in fact – so comes into this contest a fresher horse than most. His run before that was a 3m chase win on soft ground at Ffos Las, but he was found to be lame after the race and off the track then for over a year, so there certainly are risks attached. He is also a ten-year-old and those in double figures don’t tend to do so well here, but he enjoys the ground and looks to have been laid out for this, so a big run is certainly not off the cards.







    Completing the shortlist is the Gary Moore-trained Casse Tete, who was very impressive when defeating Kylemore Lough at Warwick over two and a half miles in soft ground and on his day, has looked a classy horse. Even though his inconsistency often comes to the fore, he ran well at Cheltenham in the Ultima Handicap Chase to finish eighth and it gives plenty of hope that three miles on a flat track will be within his reach, even though he’s never won at this distance yet. He could be a dark horse at a fairly big price.










    4.20 Aintree – Ryanair Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1)








    Whilst some horses may be suited to the demands of Cheltenham, the same can be said for Aintree, as certain horses have saved their best form for this venue in the past. Looking at this race specifically, we can see that twelve of the last fourteen winners had won or finished second at this meeting in the past. Perhaps surprisingly in a field of eleven, only two of this year’s field can boast such form, The Worlds End who won the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s meeting and L’Ami Serge, who won the Aintree Hurdle on day 1 of the meeting this year – so is a very unlikely runner here.







    In terms of class, only one of the last 14 winners had not won a Grade 1 or 2 hurdle race prior to landing this contest so we should focus our attentions on those with proven form at this level. There are only three of the field who actually meet that criteria: The World’s End, Sam Spinner and Wholestone. 13 of the last 14 winners also ran at the Cheltenham Festival, so the likes of Shelford, Coole Cody, Old Guard and Serienschock look up against it despite possibly being fresher than their rivals.







    Away from the Cheltenham Festival, the best guides are unsurprisingly the premier staying hurdles throughout the year, The Cleeve Hurdle, The Long Walk Hurdle and Newbury’s Long Distance Hurdle – Sam Spinner won the Long Walk, while Wholestone was second in the Cleeve and sixth in the Long Distance Hurdle. The Worlds End, Thomas Campbell and Lil Rockerfeller also ran in some of those contests, so could be the ones to focus on.







    Proven stamina is also an important consideration with Whisper and Yanworth being the only winners in the last decade to win having not won over at least 2m6f in the past. There are a few in this year’s field with questions to answer on that score, so it might be worth steering clear of Identity Thief, Old Guard, Serienschock and Coole Cody.







    A final factor to consider is the betting and with eight of the fourteen winners having been sent off favourite, it seems this isn’t a race in which it is worth taking the market on. The biggest-priced winners in that time were Whisper and Blazing Bailey who were both sent off at 5/1, so it doesn’t seem worth looking for one at a bigger price – the top three in the market are currently Sam Spinner, Wholestone and The Worlds End and it’s no surprise that they form our shortlist.






    Shortlist



    The Worlds End





    Sam Spinner





    Wholestone







    The Worlds End has contested most of the big races in this division this year and run creditably despite most of them being run on unsuitably soft ground. Tom George’s horses really come to themselves at this time of year and he’s undoubtedly got the class to win something like this judging by his Sefton Novices’ Hurdle win last season. However, it seems as if the weather gods may have conspired against him once again here and even though he’s the trends pick and is likely to run a solid race, there could be a couple more suited to these softer conditions.






    The Jedd O’Keeffe-trained Sam Spinner was an authoritative winner of the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot over the winter and has been one of the most upwardly mobile horses in training this season, improving plenty to become a big player in the staying hurdle division. Although he disappointed slightly at Cheltenham, only finishing fifth in the Stayers’ Hurdle, he still wasn’t beaten far and probably didn’t stretch the others as much as he should have earlier on in the race. Jockey Joe Colliver will have learned lots from that and a return to a flatter track should be ideal for him – he won’t mind the softer ground and he’s a very solid pick to go strongly from the front.






    Completing the shortlist is the hardy Wholestone from Nigel Twiston-Davies’ stable, who has been running well in Graded contests all season, the pinnacle being his Relkeel hurdle win at Cheltenham in January. He finished a couple of places and a length or so ahead of Sam Spinner at Cheltenham in the Stayers’ Hurdle and could well be the one to challenge the front runner late on in the piece. On that form he’s probably a good bet against the favourite, but it’s certainly difficult to see the top two in the market not being in the places at the very least.









    5.15 Aintree – Randox Health Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3)









    Historically one of the trickiest puzzles to solve in the racing calendar, the Grand National fills plenty of punters’ hearts with dread but there are a number of trends that we can use to narrow down the field.







    The first thing to consider is the weight carried by horses and whilst Many Clouds, Neptune Collonges and Don’t Push It have all carried big weights to victory in recent seasons, the overall pattern suggests that those carrying lower weights have an advantage. Seven of the last ten winners carried 11st or less and when we apply that to this year’s field, it puts a negative mark against all the runners from Minella Rocco down to Shantou Flyer.







    Given the unique nature of the fences jumped in the Grand National, it should come as little surprise that horses with previous experience of them have fared well in recent years. 9 of the last 17 winners had run over the National fences before and just over half of this year’s field boast the same credentials including the likes of Blaklion, Vieux Lion Rouge and Gas Line Boy.



    Apart from races over the Grand National fences, previous form at the meeting has also proved a useful guide. Six of the last nine winners had run at the meeting previously, with three (Mon Mome, Don’t Push It and Auroras Encore) having been successful.







    Another thing which may seem obvious in a race of this nature which is often overlooked is stamina and that is backed up by the fact that only one winner since 1970 had not won a chase over at least three miles prior to winning here. The myth that 2m4f chasers win the Grand National is long gone so be sure to steer clear of those without proven stamina on their side this time around, namely Ucello Conti and Alpha Des Obeaux.







    Race fitness can also play a crucial role in the outcome of a race and whilst it may seem logical to think it is best to side with a horse returning from a long break, the stats suggest otherwise. In the last 37 years, only three winners hadn’t run in the last 50 days prior to lining up at Aintree not good news for the likes of Carlingford Lough, Virigilio and Lord Windermere, who are all returning from lengthy absences on Saturday.






    Good jumping is also a valuable asset in a Grand National contender as the fences present a unique test for the equine athlete. It is therefore no surprise that all but two of the last twenty one winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice during their career, prior to winning here. On the whole, this year’s field look to be sound jumpers but there are a few who fall foul of this stat, Minella Rocco, Total Recall, Vicente, Gas Line Boy, Saint Are, Raz De Maree and Double Ross, so it may be best to steer clear of this septet.







    It may seem trivial for some punters to consider breeding when it comes to National Hunt racing, especially when you consider that arguably the greatest Grand National winner Red Rum was bred to be a flat horse. However, recent renewals have showed us that those bred in Ireland hold the upper hand, having been responsible for 14 of the last 19 winners of the race. They are well-represented this time around with just over half of the field but given their record is superior to that of their British and French rivals, it is worth bearing in mind when it comes to making a final selection.







    One final interesting fact to consider is that nine of the last fifteen winners had run over hurdles at some point during the season that they were successful. An outing over hurdles can often be less taxing on horses than jumping the larger obstacles and Pineau De Re completed his Grand National preparations in the Pertemps Final before landing the prize in 2014. There are twelve runners in this year’s field to have had a hurdles run this term and they include The Last Samuri, Total Recall, The Dutchman, I Just Know and Buywise.






    Shortlist






    The Last Samuri





    I Just Know





    Buywise






    Captain Redbeard







    The Last Samuri is no stranger to the Grand National fences as this will be his fifth run over the famous obstacles. His previous four runs have yielded a second in the Grand National behind Rule The World as well as two placed efforts in the Becher Chase. With 11st 7lb on his back, he misses the weight trend but he clearly likes it around here and it would be no surprise to see him run a big race on Saturday.







    Sue Smith’s I Just Know also makes the shortlist and won’t be lacking for stamina having won the North Yorkshire Grand National over 3m6f in January. He probably needs to improve a bit to defy his new mark but he is a very good jumper and if he takes to the National fences, he could take some passing.







    Evan Williams’ Buywise has been called some names over the years but he finally got his day in the sun when winning the Veterans’ Final in January. He races here off the same mark as he did when fourth in the Ultima at last season’s Cheltenham Festival and despite his advancing years, he could improve on the 12th place he managed two years ago.







    The final member of the shortlist is Captain Redbeard who won the Tommy Whittle at Haydock in December before chasing home The Dutchman at the same venue the following month. He had a spin over hurdles in March to put him spot on for this and having shaped well over the National fences in December, he could run better than his sizeable odds suggest.








    6.20 Aintree – Pinsent Masons Handicap Hurdle








    With this race still in its relative infancy we don’t have enough evidence to make some trends so we will have to rely on our own thoughts to help us find the winner.






    Towards the top of the weights, Chesterfield has to be strongly considered having won this same race twelve months ago. Seamus Mullins’ eight-year-old is now 9lb higher in the weights but he won the Scottish Champion Hurdle off a similar mark so I wouldn’t be too concerned about the added weight. He ran a fine race in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last time and it looks as though he is set for a big run as he bids to defend his title.







    Donald McCain’s Dear Sire got back to winning ways at Musselburgh last time and he gets the assistance of promising conditional Lorcan Murtagh in the saddle. With his jockey’s claim, he is effectively 1lb lower than his last winning mark and he therefore shouldn’t be too far away.







    Any runner from the Gordon Elliott stable is worthy of plenty of respect and he saddles High Expectations here. He hasn’t been seen since winning at Leicester in November and although the handicapper hasn’t taken any chances by raising him 13lb, he could still be open to further improvement.







    It can be best in these races to go for the better known jockeys and therefore Amour De Nuit, who is ridden by Bryony Frost, is likely to attract plenty of support. Paul Nicholls’ six-year-old has been running well without winning so far this term but it would be no surprise to see him thereabouts again here.






    However, the rising star of the weighing room at the moment is James Bowen and he looks to have a leading chance as he partners Michael’s Mount for Ian Williams. The five-year-old has won two of his first three starts over hurdles, with his only defeat coming in Grade 2 company at the hands of Global Citizen. He starts off life in handicaps on a mark of 134 and he could prove a good deal better than that.






    Shortlist




    Michael’s Mount





    Dear Sire





    High Expectations

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (13th April 2018),  JonEp (13th April 2018)  


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