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    Default Saturday 5/5/2018

    1.50 – Spring Lodge Stakes (Handicap)






    The two-day Classic meeting gets underway with this competitive handicap and there are no shortage of horses in here with chances.






    According to the market, the standout looks to be Sharja Bridge, who represents the in-form yard of Roger Varian. The four-year-old was unraced as a juvenile and although it took him three runs to get his head in front last term, he bumped into some smart performers including Addeybb on his first two starts. Following his ready success at Nottingham in August, he finished a close second to The Grape Escape at Sandown and although he has an attractive profile, I can’t help but think he is on the short side at around the 11/4 mark.







    Another stable who has been amongst the winners of late is that of John Gosden and he is doubly-represented here. Frankie Dettori gets the leg up on Dommersen who looked progressive when winning three of his six starts in 2016 but missed last season through injury. He made his return to action at Kempton in March and with that run likely to have brought him on physically, he looks to have a decent chance.







    However, the stable may have stronger claims with Tricorn who finished third in the Britannia at Royal Ascot last season. He was disappointing when only beating one home in the Sir Henry Cecil Stakes back in July but he has been gelded since and he looks to have every chance if resuming his improvement.






    Another horse who was gelded over the winter is Another Eclipse who has yet to finish outside of the first four in his career to date. His only career success so far came in a Brighton maiden last July but if gelding does unlock further potential, he showed enough last term to suggest he can be competitive off his current mark.





    An interesting angle here could be course and distance form as 1m1f is an unusual distance so horses who have run well over it before tend to do so time and again. Two of the last three winners of the Cambridgeshire, Spark Plug and Third Time Lucky take their chance here and although the former has a tough ask with top weight, the latter looks well-handicapped on his old form. He caught the eye when a strong-finishing sixth in the Spring Cup at Newbury a couple of weeks ago and looks primed for a big run.






    Cote D’Azur also has solid course and distance form having been placed on both his runs at the trip including when third in the Cambridgeshire back in September. He didn’t back that up next time but he races here off the same mark and having had a run on the all-weather to blow away the cobwebs, it would be no surprise to see him outrun his odds.






    However, the one who makes most appeal is BROROCCO who finished just behind Cote D’Azur in fifth in the Cambridgeshire. He was well-fancied that day on the back of a comfortable success at Newbury the week before and although he ran well at Newmarket, there is every chance that run left its mark. There is every chance he could still be improving and I think he is worth a small each-way bet at around the 14/1 mark.






    Advice







    BROROCCO – 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 (Paddy Power) (4 places, 1/4 odds)








    2.20 – Longholes Palace House Stakes (Group 3)






    Karl Burke’s Havana Grey tops the market for this contest and on official ratings at least, he is some way clear of his rivals. The three-year-old had some very smart form last year, winning twice at Listed level and also winning the Group 3 Molecomb at Goodwood. He wasn’t far off the best sprinting juveniles last year and if he can continue that form this year, his connections looks set for an exciting season. With this race in mind though, it is worth pointing out that three-year-olds don’t have the best of records in recent years, so I think he is worth taking on.





    Michael Dods has done well with sprinters in recent seasons and he saddles Mabs Cross who won her last four starts in the second half of last season. She was a little unfortunate not to continue her winning run at Bath a couple of weeks ago where she was stopped in her run before being beaten only a neck at the line. She is clearly an improving sprinter but she will need to step forward again to figure here.





    Bryan Smart has saddled two winners of this race in the last decade so it is clearly a race he targets with his sprinters. This year he sends Alpha Delphini down from his North Yorkshire base, who finished eighth in this race twelve months ago. He found it difficult in Group company last year but found his form towards the end of the season. He also ran well on his reappearance at Musselburgh but I think he probably needs soft ground to be seen at his best.







    Robert Cowell is always a man to be respected with sprinters and his two runners Encore D’Or and Jumira Bridge both warrant respect here. The former did manage to win on turf last season but he seems to be a better performer on the all-weather and has been running well in that sphere since returning from Meydan. The latter is a new recruit from the Roger Varian stable and he ran well on his first start for the yard at Kempton a few weeks ago. That was an encouraging start for his new connections and whilst I suspect he will pick up some nice prizes before the end of the season, I think he might come up short in this company.






    The one who I think could be overpriced is ORNATE who has also moved yards over the winter. He has joined the David Griffiths team who have done so well with Take Cover in recent seasons and this five-year-old also has plenty of ability. He could only finish sixth in this last year but had run well to finish second in the Abernant before that and I think he could be one that goes best fresh. With that in mind, I think it is worth taking a chance on him at around 10/1.






    Advice







    ORNATE – 0.5pt e/w @ 10/1 (bet365) (1/4 odds)








    2.55 – Dunaden Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2)








    This doesn’t look the strongest renewal although in truth, it probably comes a little early in the season for the big boys to be out as recent runnings haven’t thrown up the top quality fields a Group 2 probably deserves.







    Defoe is an obvious most likely winner but at prohibitive odds in what could be a muddling race, I think the percentage call is to keep yourself fresh for the Guineas!





    His easy win at Newbury a fortnight ago showed his St Leger run to be too bad to be true and assuming he doesn’t bounce on the back of that, this could be there for the taking.






    Queen’s Vase runner-up Count Octave finished ahead of him in the Doncaster Classic but has looked difficult to win with and although he was value for more than the neck winning margin in a Wolverhampton novice event last month, he doesn’t look the most resolute of finishers. Given his strapping frame, he should be suited by further than the 1m4f trip here to boot.





    Red Verdon is more interesting and had the beating of the re-opposing Master The World in a Listed race at Kempton back in November. He was in receipt of 3lb that day though and the pair both seem to be found wanting when competing at this sort of level.







    Khalidi completes the line-up and had some fair form last year but hasn’t really got going for new handler Clive Cox yet, for all he was set a stiff task in the Dubai Sheema Classic latest. A return to something like his best form would put him in the mix but that has to be taken on trust at present.






    I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Defoe but I see him as a low-value play here and not worth the risk at likely odds-on.





    Advice






    NO BET






    3.35 – Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (MW)








    A fantastic renewal of the season’s first classic awaits us on Saturday afternoon, with 14 colts and bundles of potential lining up come half past three. Where better to start with the master’s entries and Aidan O’Brien has three of them this year – Murillo has looked a real sprinter so far, so seems to be in the lineup to perform pacemaking duties for his two big-time stablemates.








    Gustav Klimt currently heads the market and in the absence of Ryan Moore, who is over in Kentucky riding Mendelssohn, seems to have the stable’s now first choice jockey – Seamie Heffernan – on board. Still, his achievements and rating so far don’t seem to back up his status as short-priced favourite. His maiden win over Would Be King looks just ok form and while he did overcome some serious trouble in running to win the Group 2 Superlative Stakes, beating Nebo, Great Prospector and the like doesn’t exactly scream Guineas-winning class. However, he was good on his reappearance in the Listed Leopardstown Guineas Trial to beat Imaging over seven furlongs on heavy ground and has been strong enough at the finish on all three efforts at 7f to suggest that he’d certainly get a mile easily enough, despite looking a speedy colt from a dam who was a Listed winner at 6f. He may well have improved from two to three, will certainly be primed for this after that ‘prep’ run and is trained by the best around, but at his current price (9/4), you might want to see a little more ‘top class’ form backing up his claims.







    O’Brien’s second runner with a big chance in the race is his Racing Post Trophy winner, SAXON WARRIOR, who has been the subject of hugely positive reports recently. Connections claim that he’s grown into a real beast of a horse over the winter and spring and that’s a big worry for the rest given that this unbeaten son of Deep Impact is unbeaten with a Group 1 and Group 2 over a mile already to his name. Eventually, I’m sure that a mile and a quarter or even a mile and a half will be the ideal trip for this horse, but he hasn’t looked short of the required speed for this so far, especially given his stablemate Murillo will surely try to lead the field at a good clip. I have a feeling that this is the real stable number one and the fact that his trainer labelled him as ‘a very special horse’ after he edged out Roaring Lion in the Doncaster Group 1, marks him out as one to keep on the right side of. The only question mark for me is the ground – although the trainer seems to think he’ll be better on a better surface, he’s yet to prove it, but this is obviously the perfect opportunity.








    Speaking of that Racing Post Trophy, it could well turn out to be the key piece of form here as Roaring Lion bids to atone for his disappointing reappearance in the Craven Stakes behind Godolphin’s Masar. That race was run very much in favour of Charlie Appleby’s race-fit charge, with the son of New Approach given an uncontested lead and not being pressed. Yes, he skipped away nicely and stayed the trip very well, but I don’t think Oisin Murphy was hard on Roaring Lion at all once he saw that rival had got the run on him from the front, so the margin of victory was flattering indeed. John Gosden spoke after about not being too disappointed and knowing that his horse wasn’t match fit, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the Qatar Racing-owned son of Kitten’s Joy show much, much more this time around. Masar may help to force a strong pace behind Murillo but that could make him a sitting duck late on and should play into the hands of a horse that is Gosden’s only runner in the race – he’s certainly no 16/1 shot if he’s back to his best 2-y-o form and he could well be the biggest threat to O’Brien’s pair.







    Newbury’s Group 3 Greenham Stakes has always been a good starting point for 2000 Guineas contenders and this year’s contest threw up a close finish between four horses – three of which run here. James Garfield won by a small margin from the staying-on Expert Eye and Raid was back in fourth, an impressive effort on just his second start. He is a fascinating runner given his inexperience, but this is a huge step up and he’ll have to come on plenty.







    As for the winner, he is an admirable, stout sort who always gives his best, but you can’t help but feel he’s not quite good enough to win a race like this. So it is Expert Eye that is the most interesting. He was hugely keen and unsettled in the first half of the race and it was pretty impressive that he still came so close to winning. His talent was there for all to see when he bolted up at Goodwood last year in the Vintage Stakes with the likes of James Garfield, Mildenberger and Zaman well behind, but his temperament has got in the way the last twice. He can’t afford to boil over here if he’s to contend, but if he settles in a strongly-run race, the ability is there and 10/1 would look a big price.






    Finally, it’s important to mention the great unknown – Mark Johnston’s Elarqam. With just two runs under his belt as a two-year-old, we still don’t know what he’s really capable of and that could be a great deal judging by the slightly lazy way he raced. He needed stoking up on both occasions but won very well regardless and if he’s a little more straightforward here, he could be a huge player. Still, I’d rather take notice of top class form in the book as it’s more reliable than pie in the sky potential and even though he’s certainly well bred with (hopefully) a big career ahead of him, this might come too soon.







    Advice





    SAXON WARRIOR – 1pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)









    4.10 – Hot Streak Handicap







    If we work through the race from the top the first horse that catches my eye would be the Clive Cox trained Chagatai. He was gelded at the end of last season and whilst he took a keen hold in his first race back at Kempton in April, he always looked as though he would master the early leader. He ran in the National Stakes on his second run as a two-year-old and was presumably highly thought of. Now gelded, connections will be hoping that he settles better and fulfils that potential.







    Barton Mills and Yafta both made the running on their last appearance. The William Haggas trained Barton Mills takes a step back in trip after being caught close home over 7f at Kempton on his first run this season, he was three lengths clear two furlongs out before getting caught close home, sprinting might be his forte? However, he did win over 7f as a two year old, so may have just needed the run and was unable to dominate over 6f at York in October when a shade disappointing. This may mean that Yafta can get the early lead and with a number of winners making all at the Craven Meeting, this one needs to be on our shortlist and rates the main danger. He takes a step up in class, but has certainly earnt it, with two nice wins at Bath and Chelmsford.







    The Charlie Appleby trained TRIBAL QUEST our selection, only had to be shaken up to assert his authority in a competitive Novice at Kempton his first run since being gelded, in which the David Elsworth trained Galloway Hills, finished four and a half lengths back in fourth. He has some good two year old form, most notably behind Invincible Army who won earlier in the week at Ascot and his trainer is in good form too, particularly at the last Newmarket meeting.







    Vj Day trained by Kevin Ryan is another one who could enter the shake up, the trainer has been in good form and after the problems he had last year I feel that his horse could be well handicapped. He may appreciate the return to turf after some good runs on the AW at Wolverhampton and Kempton earlier in the year.


    Incidentally, TRIBAL QUEST and VJ Day share the same sire – War Front whose progeny have a good record at Newmarket, on Good to Soft ground.






    Advice






    TRIBAL QUEST – 1pt win @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)









    4.45 – Havana Gold Newmarket Stakes (Listed Race)








    With the likes of the ill-fated Permian and Dual Group 1-winning Hawkbill on the recent roll of honour for this race, it’s clear that good middle distance types use this race to launch their Group careers, so I’ll zero in on the horses that have looked as if they’d make up into classy performers.






    The likes of Roland Rocks and Lynwood Gold look to have a lot to find to get up to that level, while Petrus isn’t one that exactly excites with a view to stepping up in this company, so I’m happy to pass over those fairly quickly.








    David Simcock’s Highbrow has looked useful in two all-weather races and was impressive on his second, where he sluiced up by over four lengths. However, that’s not the traditional route for a quality horse to take and even though the son of Intello did look decent that day, it was in a race that rather fell apart, so the form is difficult to assess. Similar comments apply to Stephensons Rocket from the Ed Walker stable, who ran in two maidens on the turf this time, winning by a fairly wide margin on his second attempt. He looked a little green in both starts and connections will hope that’s been ironed out over the break, but he still showed plenty of ability on both occasions despite his Ripon winning form being questionable at the least. His first run was a second behind Crossed Baton, who won the Derby Trial at Epsom last week, so he could bring some potential to the table, especially on this step up to 10f.






    The three remaining contenders look the most interesting – Godolphin have two carrying the blue, while the other runs in the colours of HH Sheikha Al Jaila Racing for John Gosden – Sheikh Mohammed’s famous old silks, so all very much coming from the same source. Firstly, Key Victory is one of Charlie Appleby’s two in the race and after just one successful run, he falls into the ‘could be anything’ category. He beat the now 98-rated Qaysar on that debut and it was a useful race that he won, so he’s clearly one with plenty of ability. However, this jump straight into Listed company, and decent Listed company at that, could be too much for him on what is just his second day at school.








    Instead, it is OLD PERSIAN who I prefer out of the boys in blue and is the selection. He is very highly rated by the yard and many think he could be one of Appleby’s horses to follow closely this season. He hammered Gronkowski at this track in October last year and was very impressive in doing so before disappointing in a Listed contest in soft ground. It seemed all was not well with him there, so it was no surprise to see him make a winning reappearance back on the Rowley Mile this season as he edged out Dukhan in a competitive handicap for 3-y-o’s despite looking as if his trainer had left a bit to work on. That could turn out to be a very good race and there are a few horses to follow there, so with 5 runs under his belt and plenty of track experience, he ticks plenty of boxes. He has the race-fitness edge over his rivals here and that could be enough to help him take this prize.






    Of course he has the useful Graffiti Master to contend with though, and John Gosden’s horse has the stamp of one who has to improve from two to three. He closed out his 2-y-o season with a good third to Kew Gardens in the Listed Zetland Stakes over C&D and that’s probably the best piece of form in the race, so even though he hasn’t been seen for 200 days and could need the run like many of Gosden’s have so far this year, he’s the highest rated here and must be respected. The worry for me is that he’s shaped like he’ll need a real trip to be seen at his best and you won’t see him at his optimum until he goes over 12f or more.





    Advice





    OLD PERSIAN – 2pts win @ 11/4 (Ladbrokes, Coral)









    5.20 – Qipco Racing Welfare Handicap








    A bit of a disappointing turnout with only seven lining up but I think the vast majority may have been scared off by SYMBOLIZATION.





    Representing a red-hot Charlie Appleby, who won this a couple of years ago with subsequent Group 1 runner-up Folkswood, the strapping colt has to give weight away to all of his rivals but could still be well-in off an opening mark of 100. He was turned over at odds-on in a conditions event at the Craven meeting over a furlong shorter than the mile trip here but only went down by a neck to the promising Purser in a muddling 4-runner affair. The step up in trip and having that run under his belt will certainly hold him in good stead here and given he still holds entries in a pair of Group 1s in the Irish 2,000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes, he should prove a cut above his rivals.







    Stablemate Folk Tale proved a big disappointment in the Free Handicap last time so the biggest threat could come from Northern-raider Crownthorpe. The improving gelding comfortably accounted for the re-opposing Book of Dreams at Ripon last time and looks to have been let off lightly with only a 5lb rise for his dominant display. To get competitive here will take another step up but he is certainly heading firmly in the right direction at present.






    Of the remainder, Sam Gold warrants a second check despite being the only maiden in the contest. He finished a close-up second in a hot Newbury novice event and a Nottingham maiden, which has turned out to be solid form, to round off his campaign and has been feasibly well treated by the assessor now making his handicap bow off a mark of 86. He lacks a recent run that some of his main rivals have in the bank though and may have to settle for the minor honours once again here.







    Advice






    SYMBOLIZATION – 2pts win @ 7/4 (Ladbrokes, Coral)








    7.50 Doncaster – Napoleons Casino And Restaurant Sheffield Handicap (Class 4)








    With Qaysar not being declared for the concluding handicap – I was keen on his chances from entry stage, so keep him in mind in the upcoming weeks – I’m staying away from Newmarket this afternoon and the horse I am most looking forward to seeing on the Flat is the Iain Jardine-trained Bedrock at Doncaster this evening.





    The five-year-old won twice on the Flat when trained by William Haggas and repeated that feat over hurdles for Dan Skelton, for whom he also finished third behind Defi du Seuil in last year’s Anniversary 4-Y-O Hurdle at Aintree.





    Switched to the Jardine stable, he bolted up over 2m3½f at Musselburgh in March – on his first start for four months – before running a career best, when again third in Grade 1 company at the Grand National meeting. He looked like causing an upset between the final two flights that day and was beaten just over 3 lengths in the end by Lalor, with Vision des Flos advertising that form with a sound second at Punchestown last week.




    Up to a mark of 145 over hurdles, he is rated just 83 on the level and has yet to run beyond 1m2f under this code. Given the improvement he has shown over hurdles since last being seen on the Flat and also having proved that he stays beyond 2m, the step up to this sort of trip (1m6½f) could bring about plenty of improvement.





    Bedrock seems at the top of his game at present and, though it looks a competitive staying handicap, a big run looks on the cards. He looks particularly well treated in comparison to the other pair who revert from hurdles – Dino Velvet (who won off 121 at Ayr recently and is now 15lbs below Bedrock in that sphere, yet has to concede 1lb to him this evening) and Master Of Irony.







    Recommendation






    BEDROCK 1pt win @ 7/2 (bet365)
    Last edited by ganjaman2; 5th May 2018 at 09:07 AM.

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