Close

Results 1 to 9 of 9
  1. #1
    DF Super Moderator MrTeajunkie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Devon
    Posts
    5,221
    Thanks
    2,328
    Thanked:        2,550
    Karma Level
    636

    Advice Looking to bet on grand national

    Wats the best deals and options for betting on the GN tomorrow?

    just a tenner and won’t be betting again until next year.

    Cheers.
    TJ
    Instagram and twitter @mrteajunkie.
    I make mugs, keyrings, coasters, T-shirt’s and decals.

  2. #2
    DF Wh0re WillD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Location
    Barcelona
    Posts
    157
    Thanks
    117
    Thanked:        52
    Karma Level
    137

    Default Re: Looking to bet on grand national

    Dusty Matt, apparently it’s never been beaten.




    seriously though, I’d put a £5 each way on Tiger Roll

    Thanks to WillD

    MrTeajunkie (6th April 2019) 


  3. #3
    DF Jedi ganjaman2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    croseyceiliog
    Posts
    1,961
    Thanks
    368
    Thanked:        1,661
    Karma Level
    327

    Default Re: Looking to bet on grand national

    5.15 Aintree – Randox Health Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3)





    Historically one of the trickiest puzzles to solve in the racing calendar, the Grand National fills plenty of punters’ hearts with dread but there are a number of trends that we can use to narrow down the field.





    The first thing to consider is the weight carried by horses and whilst Many Clouds, Neptune Collonges and Don’t Push It have all carried big weights to victory in recent seasons, the overall pattern suggests that those carrying lower weights have an advantage. 30 of the last 34 winners winners carried 11st or less and when we apply that to this year’s field, it puts a negative mark against all the runners from Anibale Fly down to Ballyoptic.





    Given the unique nature of the fences jumped in the Grand National, it should come as little surprise that horses with previous experience of them have fared well in recent years. 9 of the last 18 winners had run over the National fences before and just under half of this year’s field boast the same credentials including the likes of Anibale Fly, Tiger Roll and Pleasant Company.



    A slightly contradictory stat suggests that whilst experience of the fences is important, a previous run in the race itself is not so much of an advantage. In fact, ten of the last eleven winners were having their first start in the race, the only exception being Mon Mome. Nearly three-quarters of this year’s field are making their Grand National bows on Saturday including the likes of Lakeview Lad, Rathvinden and Joe Farrell.




    Apart from races over the Grand National fences, previous form at the meeting has also proved a useful guide. Seven of the last ten winners had run at the meeting previously (excluding races over the Grand National fences), with three (Mon Mome, Don’t Push It and Auroras Encore) having been successful.






    Another thing which may seem obvious in a race of this nature which is often overlooked is stamina and that is backed up by the fact that only one winner since 1970 had not won a chase over at least three miles prior to winning here. The myth that 2m4f chasers win the Grand National is long gone so be sure to steer clear of those without proven stamina on their side this time around, namely A Toi Phil, Ultragold, Blow By Blow, Up For Review and Livelovelaugh.





    Good jumping is also a valuable asset in a Grand National contender as the fences present a unique test for the equine athlete. It is therefore no surprise that all but two of the last twenty two winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice during their career, prior to winning here. On the whole, this year’s field look to be sound jumpers but there are a few who fall foul of this stat, Go Conquer and Minella Rocco, so it may be best to steer clear of this trio.




    Race fitness can also play a crucial role in the outcome of a race and whilst it may seem logical to think it is best to side with a horse returning from a long break, the stats suggest otherwise. In the last 38 years, only three winners hadn’t run in the last 50 days prior to lining up at Aintree not good news for the likes of Valtor, Rock The Kasbah and Step Back, who are all returning from lengthy absences on Saturday.




    It may seem trivial for some punters to consider breeding when it comes to National Hunt racing, especially when you consider that arguably the greatest Grand National winner Red Rum was bred to be a flat horse. However, recent renewals have showed us that those bred in Ireland hold the upper hand, having been responsible for 15 of the last 20 winners of the race. They are well-represented this time around with nearly two-thirds of the field but given their record is superior to that of their British and French rivals, it is worth bearing in mind when it comes to making a final selection.




    Shortlist



    Vintage Clouds




    Joe Farrell




    Ballyoptic





    Regal Encore





    Having just missed the cut twelve months ago, Vintage Clouds finally gets a chance to have a go at this race and the case for him looks strong. One of the strongest stayers in the field, Sue Smith’s nine-year-old won well on his seasonal reappearance and following a below-par run in the Welsh National, he put the finishing touches to his preparation with a fine second in the Ultima at Cheltenham last month. That was his first run since having a wind op and if he can step forward again, he looks a leading contender.




    Last year’s Scottish Grand National looks a key piece of form for our shortlist because whilst Vintage Clouds was back in third, it was Joe Farrell and Ballyoptic who fought out the finish, with the former coming out on top by the narrowest of margins. Rebecca Curtis’ ten-year-old managed to sneak in at the foot of the weights here and if he takes to the fences, he should be thereabouts.




    Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Ballyoptic has struggled for form so far this term and fell on his first run over the Grand National fences in the Becher in December. That is far from an ideal preparation, his form ties in closely with leading contenders Joe Farrell and Vintage Clouds and if he returns to form, he could outrun his sizeable odds.





    The final member of the shortlist is Regal Encore who is no stranger to the race, having finished eighth in 2017. Anthony Honeyball’s eleven-year-old isn’t the easiest to predict but he stepped forward from his return to action over hurdles to finished third in a valuable chase at Ascot in February. The handicapper has taken no chances with him but his experience could prove important in a field with so many debutants.

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    ilscuro (6th April 2019), MrTeajunkie (6th April 2019) 


  4. #4
    DF Super Moderator MrTeajunkie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Devon
    Posts
    5,221
    Thanks
    2,328
    Thanked:        2,550
    Karma Level
    636

    Default Re: Looking to bet on grand national

    Quote Originally Posted by WillD View Post
    seriously though, I’d put a £5 each way on Tiger Roll
    nice tip just won me about £27
    Instagram and twitter @mrteajunkie.
    I make mugs, keyrings, coasters, T-shirt’s and decals.

    Thanks to MrTeajunkie

    WillD (7th April 2019) 


  5. #5
    DF Jedi satzzz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    Here
    Posts
    2,818
    Thanks
    170
    Thanked:        659
    Karma Level
    459

    Default Re: Looking to bet on grand national

    £145 for this happy boy

    Sent from my Philips Diga via BT Cellnet
    Just use enough water to cover your vegetables,the same goes for when you're having a bath....

    2 Thanks given to satzzz

    akimba (9th April 2019), BigBrand (8th April 2019) 


  6. #6
    DF Rookie KENZ33's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2019
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    2
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked:        0
    Karma Level
    0

    Default Re: Looking to bet on grand national

    Does anybody know great online pokies based in Australia, that will allow to take out earned money to the cash?

    Thanks.

  7. #7
    DF Jedi c0axial's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2002
    Location
    M44
    Posts
    1,574
    Thanks
    218
    Thanked:        234
    Karma Level
    375

    Default Re: Looking to bet on grand national

    Anything for 2021

  8. #8
    DF Jedi ganjaman2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    croseyceiliog
    Posts
    1,961
    Thanks
    368
    Thanked:        1,661
    Karma Level
    327

    Default Re: Looking to bet on grand national

    5:15 - Randox Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3)










    With so many years? worth of statistics and trends to go on, you would think that this historic race should be a piece of cake to decipher by now, but with the last 20 years of the race seeing so many changes to the fences, distance and makeup of the field, it feels like the Grand National is almost a totally different race to the one we saw at the turn of the Millennium.






    However, some things don?t change ? you need to stay and you need to clear the obstacles. The last six winners had all fallen only once or never fallen at all in their careers, so the fences being made more forgiving certainly hasn?t seemed to lessen the focus on a horse?s jumping with only two of the past 23 winners having fallen more than twice in their lives. Potter?s Corner, Yala Enki, Definitly Red and Lord Du Mesnil are four to fall at the first as it were.






    12 of the past 15 winners were also winners over 3m 1f and further, so, no, you don?t need a good two-and-a-half miler as some say, you need a proven stayer over four and a quarter miles! Canelo, Minella Times, Mister Malarky and Discorama are four that don?t have winning form over anything further than the base three miles and so miss out on a point here.






    Running at Aintree previously is an advantage according to the stats, but only if it?s not over the National Fences. Horses to have run at this meeting before have won eight of the past eleven renewals of the Grand National, so Bristol De Mai, Chris?s Dream and Mister Malarky are three to fit the bill here. However, while Aintree experience is good, counterintuitively, it seems that previous Grand National experience is not ? ten of the last twelve winners were having their first start in the race, suggesting that this unique test can help to improve some horses. Again, Bristol De Mai, Chris?s Dream and Mister Malarky hit the target here, with others such as favourite Cloth Cap, Hogan?s Height and Kimberlite Candy also lining up in the race for the first time.






    Age-wise, the average age of the winners of the Grand National has been steadily dropping over the last 20 years and with 19 of the past 24 winners being aged eight, nine or ten, these are the horses we should focus on. Takingrisks, Ok Corral, Yala Enki and Lake View Lad could all be vulnerable to younger legs.






    That age range also translates into the experience horses need before winning this ? seven of the past eleven winners had run between ten and 14 times over fences, just enough experience to be comfortable in the race, but not too much so that the horse isn?t hugely exposed. Burrows Saint is one run short of that bracket, while the likes of Bristol De Mai and Definitly Red are more experienced than the usual profile that a national winner has these days.






    Recent form is becoming more and more important, with the race becoming higher and higher class, so it?s no surprise to see that six of the last ten winners had recorded a first three finish last time out. Cloth Cap, Any Second Now and Acapella Bourgeois are three who were successful on their last start, while OK Corral?s pulled up effort at Cheltenham doesn?t translate well to success here and neither does Magic Of Light?s eighth in the Mares? Chase.






    Interestingly, Irish-bred horses have taken a staggering 16 of the last 21 runnings of the race, so favourite Cloth Cap gets a tick in his box here with 23 others, while Mister Malarky and Burrows Saint are British and French-bred respectively and miss out.








    Shortlist:






    Cloth Cap




    Bristol De Mai




    Chris?s Dream




    Hogan?s Height










    It?s no great surprise to see Cloth Cap matching most of the key trends this season and the Jonjo O?neill-trained nine-year-old has an exceptional chance given he?s in such good form, the ground is right for him and he?s officially a stone well-in according to the handicapper. While horses that have carried more weight have done better recently, you can?t say that a horse of this calibre carrying just 10st 5lb is a negative in any way. If he jumps well from his typical prominent position, Tom Scudamore could well pick up the prize.






    The dashing grey, Bristol De Mai, has a number of factors seemingly against him, including carrying top-weight, being French-bred and having run more over fences than the typical National winner these days, however, he still ticks a lot of the trends boxes and hits the shortlist as a result. His bold jumping, strong-staying style will surely be well-suited to the race and if he can get in a rhythm early on, he?ll be a superb ride for Daryl Jacob this year.






    Chris?s Dream is the sole Irish-trained member of the shortlist after matching seven of the nine key trends and Henry De Bromhead?s charge certainly has enough class and staying power to be involved at the business end. Of course, he gives weight to most of the field from his mark of 164, but on the form of his Grade 1 second to The Storyteller at Down Royal and his ten-length handicap chase win over Fitzhenry from a mark of 146, he might well be able to run well regardless of the weight he carries for an in-form stable who targets this meeting.






    Rounding off the shortlist is the 16-length Grand Sefton winner from 2019, Hogan?s Height, who has proved he likes the fences and will certainly like this quicker ground. He tuned up for this in the Cross Country at Cheltenham, finishing sixth, and the return to these fences could well prompt the kind of jolt of improvement that saw him bolt up in the Grand Sefton ? he was sensational that day in a competitive race and he looks very much overpriced here.

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    c0axial (4 Weeks Ago), evilsatan (4 Weeks Ago) 


  9. #9
    DF Jedi akimba's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    3,038
    Thanks
    1,163
    Thanked:        844
    Karma Level
    346

    Default Re: Looking to bet on grand national

    I backed Farclas and MINELLA TIMES good ole Rachel Blackmore done it again ;-)

Social Networking Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •