Major solar flare in progress - 28th oct

**Undertaker** · 28th October 2003

One of the largest flares ever seen on the Sun is taking place right now.
It comes from one of the biggest groups of sunspots seen for years. Several times in recent days superhot gas has erupted above them.

The events, called coronal mass ejections, have sent 10 billion tonnes of superhot material speeding towards Earth.

As well as communication blackouts, aurorae - polar lights - may be seen from mid-latitudes as the gas arrives.

Arrives in two days

According to reports, the flare is considerably more powerful than the two major flares that erupted on the Sun at the weekend.

It is the strongest flare since 2001 which itself was the most powerful since 1989.

A less powerful flare, also in 1989, caused disruption of power grids in Canada.

Observations from the Solar Heliospheric Observatory (Soho) satellite, monitoring the Sun from a gravitational balance point closer to the Sun than the Earth, indicate that a large mass of gas has been hurled towards the Earth.

It will probably slam into the Earth's magnetosphere in about two days.

Until scientists know the magnetic structure of the coronal mass ejection they will not be able to say if it will cause any disruption on Earth.

If the cloud has a southward directed magnetic field it will be severe, while if it has a northward component it will not affect us that much.

Observers say the eruption also caused a high energy proton shower which can cause damage to satellites and can be harmful for astronauts.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3221287.stm

soho image -http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/javagif/gifs_small/20031028_1627_c3.gif

other thread - http://www.digital-forums.com/showthread.php?t=185503

**Undertaker** · 28th October 2003

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 00:00 UTC on 29 October to 21:00 UTC on 29 October
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 08:00 UTC, 29 October 2003 (3 am EST on 29 October)
Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 9

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
SOUTHWARD

IMPORTANT TIME OF ARRIVAL NOTICE FOR NORTH AMERICANS
The preferred time of arrival is ***TONIGHT***, TUESDAY NIGHT (before you go to bed that night) near or after 3 am Eastern Standard Time).
That's 2 am Central Standard Time on TONIGHT.
That's 1 am Mountain Standard Time on TONIGHT.
That's MIDNIGHT Pacific Standard Time on TONIGHT.

EXPECT RESIDUAL ACTIVITY (LESS INTENSE) TOMMORROW NIGHT (WEDNESDAY, 29 OCT) AS WELL !

EVENT #49 NOTES:

This is the most energetic Earthward-directed event of the solar cycle.

SEVERE to MAJOR geomagnetic storming is expected to abruptly commence following the arrival of the shock front from this flare.

This flare was associated with a Ground-Level Event. It was also associated with very high energy protons at greater than 100 MeV (which are still climbing, over 5 hours after the event began). A magnetic crochet was observed over the daylit sections of the ionosphere. An exceptionally intense shortwave fadeout and polar cap absorption event are in progress. There are reports this event was observed in white-light. Intense radio bursts were associated with this event across the spectrum. The type II shock velocity is not representative of the observed velocity of this CME. The observed velocity as determined by SOHO was 2125 km/sec.

This event has the potential to produce the strongest geomagnetic storm since 1989. Auroral activity could become visible into the deep low latitude regions. This one is worth driving a good long distance over to find clear skies. It has better potential to produce low-latitude aurora than almost any other event observed in the past decade. Keep in mind that it is also possible the disturbance may not be nearly as geoeffective as many would like. It all depends on the character of the magnetic fields imbedded within the coronal mass ejection. However, we believe it will either be very large, or only modestly large in terms of its capacity to produce disturbed geomagnetic and auroral activity. We do not expect this disturbance to be small.

http://www.spacew.com/cme/index.html

**beansontoast** · 28th October 2003

So that's 8am GMT isn't it..? And I presume the light side of the earth would take the majority of the effects.

**Undertaker** · 29th October 2003

http://www.itv.com/news/2063046.html

Planet Earth is under attack from the Sun after a massive explosion created a particle cloud travelling through space at more than 1,000,000 mph.

The cloud of charged particles is 13 times the size of the Earth and could cause widespread interference to power grids, radio communication and even mobile phones.

It is the one of the strongest clouds detected since scientists first started measuring them 25 years ago.

The resulting geomagnetic storm could be ranked among the most powerful of its kind and last for 24 hours.

A flare is caused by an explosion of gas and charged particles into space from the corona, the outermost layer of the sun's atmosphere.

Solar flares pose no danger to people on Earth, but they can knock out satellite communications, such as those currently being used by firefighters in California to track the course of wildfires sweeping the area.

Similar solar events in recent years have disrupted television transmissions, GPS (global positioning system) navigation, oil pipeline controls and even the flow of electricity along power lines.

The solar storm could also create an aurora that might be visible in southern Europe.

Paal Brekke, a scientist who works with the Soho satellite that first detected the blast, said: "People on the ground shouldn't worry.

"The only thing you should be aware of is that some of the modern equipment - GPS, pager, cellphone - some of these will fail. Most of the time, we can live without them."