If politics and psc's are sorted GKP will be taken over, thats what I am waiting for.
Will then use that money to reinvest elsewhere
If politics and psc's are sorted GKP will be taken over, thats what I am waiting for.
Will then use that money to reinvest elsewhere
I've just had a little go at this and will be watching closely... thanks to everyone for the updated info
Closed 9% up, made a pretty penny today and I don't expect a big retrace (if any) tomorrow. The only way is up as far as I'm concerned
Just to add a bit of clarification to this thread, I have been following news and listening intently to fellow investors who are well educated in shares (I am a newbie) and the general feeling is the longer the government take to form the better for us. A lot of potential investors see no government as a threat but for GKP (who has already hit oil) it is a benefit. I will briefly try to explain why (from my understanding).
The shares are currently so cheap because big investors are wary over the state of the government and export contracts as well as the appraisal of the field with more accurate estimates of barrels. Whilst this uncertainty is in the air the sharks waiting to try and take the company over are circling. Now if you believe (as many other investors in GKP and I do) that GKP has hit the motherload they need time to prove their worth to fend off takeover bids and get a higher SP. The government is just giving us time to maximise value in order to bargain with bids like Cadburys did with Kraft.
Seasoned investors who have far more experience in these matters than me are estimating that the current T/O worth would be circa £4-5 per share. Some say they think the shares should be worth £10, others say £20! I don't have an opinion either way as I don't have the knowledge to make such an estimate.
Anyway I thought I would post this just to reassure any followers that the government formation is not a problem for us, in fact the Kurds are being referred to the Kingmakers on several financial websites today as they hold 51 seats so can decide which party to join in a coalition. The Kurds will almost certainly be looking for assurance that the oil will be allowed to flow to bring them prosperity.
Happy days
£1.71
Looks like it was a combination of Maliki being announced the PM for his second term and a taster RNS from GKP. There is still a lot of news to come, many say there is a news blackout until the government is formed.
Operational Update
RNS Number : 3234V
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd
01 November 2010
Not for release, publication or distribution in or into the United States or jurisdictions other than the United Kingdom and Bermuda where to do so would constitute a contravention of the relevant laws of such jurisdiction.
1 November 2010
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP)
("Gulf Keystone" or "the Company")
Operations Update
Gulf Keystone today announces the following update for the current exploration and testing activities in the Kurdistan region of Iraq:
Shaikan-3
The well is currently in the Cretaceous Garagu Formation at 1,229 metres, measured depth. Oil shows have been observed both while drilling and also in a core. The wellbore is being conditioned prior to logging the well. Subsequently, the well will be drilled to TD and a 7-inch casing string will be run, finally, the pay interval will be tested.
Extended Well Test Facilities at Shaikan-1
A total of 10 truck loads of crude from the Shaikan-1 discovery well have now been sent to different refineries and oil processing plants in Kurdistan. The results of refined product yields from these product test runs continue to be analysed, after which a domestic price will be set for the Shaikan, Sargelu crude oil.
Sheikh Adi-1
The well is currently drilling in the Cretaceous at 899 metres, measured depth. Oil shows have been encountered in a core taken in the top Cretaceous. In addition, oil shows have been seen in the surface returns whenever there have been full or even partial returns. Log evaluation also indicates high hydrocarbon saturations over a minimum gross interval of 50 metres in the first Cretaceous zone encountered. However, hole stability issues (swelling, unstable shales) preclude the possibility of a production test at this time, doing so would involve running an unplanned casing string thus jeopardising our ability to reach the primary Jurassic and Triassic targets. Plans are to drill ahead to the primary targets and leave the Cretaceous intervals for later testing.
Bijeel-1
Kalegran, a 100% subsidiary of MOL, and the operator of the Akri-Bijeel block is continuing well test operations on the Bijeel-1 discovery well. Release of the Weatherford 842 drilling rig is scheduled for mid-November at which point the rig will move to the Shaikan-2 location and begin drilling the first deep appraisal well on the Shaikan structure.
Drilling Rig Tender
The GKP bid evaluation team is currently reviewing the eleven technical and commercial bid proposals that were received in response to the Company's tender. GKP expects to award a contract to the successful bidder during November. The selected rig will be used to drill the Shaikan-4 appraisal well.
Shaikan and Sheikh Adi 3D Seismic
Acquisition of approximately 525 square kilometres of 3D seismic data for the Shaikan block is 98% complete and data processing and evaluation have commenced. On Sheikh Adi, approximately 300 square kilometres of seismic data acquisition is 10% complete.
Commenting on today's announcement, John Gerstenlauer, Chief Operating Officer said "We are very encouraged by the log results and oil shows seen thus far in the Sheikh Adi-1 exploration well. The well logs and oil shows in this well not only point towards significant potential in the Cretaceous but also serve to further de-risk the oil potential of at least the Jurassic age targets deeper in this well. In addition we have made significant progress in establishing a fair price for the Shaikan Sargelu crude oil in the Kurdistan market in preparation for routine domestic oil sales."
even better today at 1.91
I was driving home this afternoon, (last I knew the shareprice had risen to up 7.5%) saw it was 16:37 and decided to see what the auction closed at. I had expected a small retrace back to say 5%. Saw 14.7% rise and lost control of my body. Started shouting and raving to my music. Quite odd. Expect an RNS tomorrow and a formed government very soon. Looking at topping up this week. Breaking 200p/share by Xmas, very happy.
03/11/2010 0836hrs: Could break 200p today mate....already at 199.50p...
http://www.shareprice.co.uk/GKP/GULF-KEYSTONE
03/11/2010 1537hrs: Dropped down to 187.75p.....funny old day.
There was a takeover rumour in various press outlets which caused a good start but GKP released a RNS to discredit the rumours hence the drop. Good time to buy though IMO, I am trying to release some funds.
A lot of excitement still for what news will be announced between now and Xmas. There was supposed to be an important meeting on Monday to apparently form the government but a spanner was thrown into the works and the meeting may be cancelled.
Speculation that SH-3 has been completed but no official news as of yet. Goes towards the theory of a news blackout before government formation.
Most/all the directors of the company were recently in Kurdistan, apparently for a celebration...
Presentations are set to take place this month, someone from iii has been in touch with GKP and they wouldn't confirm nor deny anything about SH-3 but they did say they would try to add a bit to the presentation about it.
Exciting times indeed.
Although the forming of the government has been going on for ages, it does appear to be getting very close to resolution.
Hopefully a few RNS's will appear and push price up when the government is finally agreed
Just wish I had some more funds for this ;-)
So im guessing everybodys saying this is a good shout.
Ive got some money tied up in some oilies waiting for a hit, but may take em out and stick em in gkp tomoz.
xel also doing good... a good RNS released today
PS 11am government formation today? we shall see
XEL have been phenomenal over the past few weeks.
Something very fishy about GKP SP today, we have confirmation of government formation with Maliki to remain PM and allawi is involved. Speaker to be announced on Thursday from allawis party. We have had an RNS released today updating us on our dealings with MOL and confirmation that the drill is being moved to SH-2 to speed up work.
Yet the SP is stagnant and Goldman sachs has downgraded GKP to a sell... Speculation that Goldman is manipulating SP to help keep the SP low until ii's get the balls to invest and so they can mop up cheap shares. I for one will be holding onto my shares, as always DYOR!
Slightly dissappointing SP, but expect to rise again soon. Hopefully more RNS' soon too
Fingers crossed, im not selling mine
Shortly after the formation of the new government is complete I fully expect to see a flow of RNS and a nice rise to our SP. Goldman Sachs released an explanation of their sell rating, they admitted the potential (more like probable) upside is huge but said the SP reflects the upside being true and so they have discounted value by 50% with a one year target of 160p a share. We would need something disastrous to happen to keep us from near £3 a share in 12 months IMO.
XEL closed at 234.5p......a big drop for them today.
Iraq: Maliki, Sunni Arab leaders and the future of the Oil Ministry
Posted on: Wed, Nov 10, 2010
Iraqi PM Nouri Al-Maliki is rumored to have agreed to let the ministerial oil portfolio go to the Sunni Arabs to settle the government issue in the country. The following 408-word report sheds light on the subject ans tells what about the preliminary reactions of leading Shiite cleric Ai Sistani, radical Shiite cleric Moqtada Al-Sadr and Oil Minister Hussein Al-Shahristani.
http://tacticalreport.com/view_news/..._Ministry/1473
Looks like the government will be formed tomorrow. With an Oil Minister on the side of Allawi (who wants the oil contracts ratified asap) we could be on for some decent SP rises. No guarantees the article is true and there have been so many delays already tomorrow could be another washout but time will tell.
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