Gkp- Gulf Keystone Petroleum

[lukese]

i could really do with it all happening in 2011, have set aside a large chunk of my portfollio in GKP and am hoping to trade the rest up throughout 2011 and if successful jack my job in tail end of 2011 and do tihs full time.! bloody long long way of yet though!.

thinking if i can get the other half of my portfolio to average 10% a month over the year once all the ups and downs and fees are taken into account it should then give me the confidence to play full time, fingers crossed i get the chance to do it, work commitments normally mean i leave my investments med/long term rather than day trade. but hopefully ill have some free time.


Good news once again and hopefully it will be reflected in the share price come wednesday but it wouldnt surprise me if its not! haha

[lukese]

http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...oil-again.html

[Undertaker]

This will come good eventually, the contracts need to be officially ratified and once that happens the big players will start investing and the price will go up.

What we may see on wednesday is just pi's piling in, price will go up no doubt but quite possibly retrace. Like everything in Iraq the whole process is very slow, but 2011 is going to be a great year for those in GKP.

[evilsatan]

Small setback today has offered a great buy in opportunity. We started the day 20% down but with my hangover I couldn't remember my login details to setup a T20 purchase! We are now down about 10%.

RNS here:
http://ir2.bestex-quotes.com/ir/gulf...=372631&ST=GKP

The claim looks preposterous and the general consensus is it is nothing to worry about. DYOR, I for one will be trying to top up and lower my average

[evilsatan]

Just the kind of updated we wanted to see:

Mirabaud Oil Update

Mirabaud Securities – Energy Research

29 December 2010



Gulf Keystone

This morning, Gulf Keystone (GKP LN, Accumulate, 200p) announced that legal claims have been made by Excalibur Ventures, which demand up to 30% interest in the Companies Kurdistan blocks. The claims have been strongly rebuffed by GKP, and the company is confident that this challenge will be defeated in the courts. indeed an attempt by Excalibur to freeze Gulf Keystone's assets has already been rejected by a court in London.



The claim stems from 2006, when Texas Keystone (a privately owned company operated by the broader Kozel family, and totally separate from Gulf Keystone) and Excalibur had a bidding agreement to enter Kurdistan together. Excalibur claimed to have sufficient funding and strong connections in Kurdistan - neither of which turned out to be true - in fact Excalibur failed to qualify as a potential licencee. The agreement expired in February 2007 and then in November that year a subsidiary of Gulf Keystone signed a production sharing contract with the Kurdistan Regional Government for the Shaikan and Akri-Bijeel exploration blocks, along with MOL and Texas Keystone.



As documentation is in place confirming the termination of the agreement with Texas Keystone and Excalibur we are confident that this issue will be resolved in the companies favour. Besides, the company will argue that the issue only relates to Texas Keystone's 5% interest in the Shaikan block, and not to the interests of Gulf Keystone. We believe that Excalibur Ventures (a small group comprising a handful of employees) has received funding for legal action, with the hope of swift settlement to minimise disruption. However, we are confident that Gulf Keystone will successfully rebut these claims in court and therefore maintain our BUY recomendation and 200p target price.

[lukese]

see what happens it definatly came out of nowhere didnt it! haha i woke at around 10ish execting ot see us pushing 200p and saw 150ish haha! its a funny old game aint it!

[evilsatan]

More oil confirmed from SH-3, very large range on the estimates but this will be narrowed down with time. Not had a great impact on the SP but until the contracts signed by the KRG are confirmed and exports recommence we will remain undervalued. Deadline for this is June IIRC, although Iraq has stated several times they wish to resume exports at the beginning of 2011 to help build a better Iraq. Still lots of news expected and some overdue so good luck all.

RNS Number : 9144Y
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd
05 January 2011

05 January 2011

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP)

("Gulf Keystone" or "the Company")



Kurdistan Operational Update:

Completion of Drilling and Testing Operations on the Shaikan-3 Shallow Appraisal Well



Gulf Keystone announces the completion of drilling and testing operations on its Shaikan-3 shallow appraisal well. This well was designed to drill and test the Cretaceous intervals in the immediate vicinity of the Shaikan-1 discovery well. The Company has a 75 percent working interest in the Block and is partnered with the MOL subsidiary, Kalegran, and Texas Keystone which have the remaining 20 and 5 percent working interests respectively.



The well drilled the entire Cretaceous interval and on into the Jurassic Sargelu formation. A total of two open hole and two cased hole flow tests were conducted in the Cretaceous. As a result of these tests, log evaluations and recovered fluid samples, the Company's current P50 to P10 estimate of Garagu oil in place volumes is 220 million to 2.2 billion barrels. These Garagu resources are in the lower portion of the Cretaceous (between 1060m and 1157m). The Shaikan partner group will formulate a development plan for these resources.



The large spread between P50 and P10 volumes is due to the uncertainty with respect to the exact nature of the Cretaceous down dip, on the flanks of the Shaikan structure. If the Cretaceous is oil bearing near the flanks, then the P10 volumes become more likely and it is possible that the oil will also be less viscous and of higher API gravity.



In the mean time, due to the different characteristics of the Cretaceous oil, the Shaikan-3 well has been completed as a second Jurassic producer from the Sargelu formation and will flow into the same test facilities as the Shaikan-1 well.



John Gerstenlauer, Gulf Keystone's Chief Operating Officer commented "The Cretaceous resources evaluated by the Shaikan-3 well are massive by any standard. They represent a significant oil resource for Kurdistan and Iraq. It is a further demonstration of the huge hydrocarbon potential of the area."

[tam9]

jumped in today with a 2.5k punt...hopefully something comes out of it. got in at 171 iirc...hopefully this sky rockets!

[lukese]

its a good share mate, all the facts are there just seems to be being held back by political and now legal issues, if u can afford to loose the 2.5k put it away and look at it next year because im allmost cirtain this will go down before it goes up!

[Roach-Rampino]

jumped in today with a 2.5k punt...hopefully something comes out of it. got in at 171 iirc...hopefully this sky rockets!

It's dropped around 6p today mate:

06/1/2011 1615hrs 166.79p

Your money might be better in XEL (which I do not hold BTW) as it has some serious promise if you believe what information is out there.

[evilsatan]

Lots of articles doing the rounds today saying that Kurdish exports to recommence on Feb 1st. Probably the most reliable outlet is Reuters so I have only posted that article. No confirmation from the Iraqi government yet but looking good:

Iraqi Kurds say agree to resume oil exports in Feb
Tue Jan 18, 2011 10:48am GMT Print | Single Page [-] Text [+]
ARBIL, Iraq Jan 18 (Reuters) - Iraqi Kurdish authorities agreed in a meeting with their Iraqi counterparts in Baghdad to resume halted oil exports from their region "at the start of February," the office of the Kurdish prime minister said.

A statement issued to Reuters by the office of regional prime minister Barham Salih said the resumption of exports from the region was agreed in a meeting on Monday with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.

There was no immediate confirmation from the Iraqi government, which said last May it had approved a deal with the Kurds and expected Kurdish oil exports to resume quickly. (Reporting by Shamal Aqrawi; Writing by Michael Christie; Editing by James Jukwey)

http://af.reuters.com/article/energy...70H0Y120110118

[evilsatan]

Confirmed by central government although precise budgets, payments and ratification still pending:

Iraq says Kurdish oil exports to resume Feb 1
Jan 18 (Reuters) - Iraq's central government confirmed on Tuesday it reached an agreement with the Kurdish authorities to resume oil exports from the semi-autonomous region on Feb. 1, a government spokesman said.

Government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh told Reuters all issues related to the legality of the Kurdish contracts signed with international oil firms working in the region, and how the companies will be paid, will be discussed "at a later stage."

Under the deal, exports from Iraqi Kurdistan will start at 100,000 barrels per day, he said.

(Reporting by Ahmed Rasheed; writing by Rania El Gamal; editing by Keiron Henderson)

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE70H27G20110118

I wouldn't count my chickens til I see the oil leave Kurdistan but it sounds like the wheels are turning albeit slowly. Not totally derisked yet but we want time to prove up all reserves before the risk is gone as atm a cheap takeover could be achieved.

[Eddie_M]

I suspect we must be due an update regarding production oil of 8000-1000 barrels a day being sold locally? This has been reported on several occasions and most recently last week in the guardian newspaper.

My guess is they are holding back a lot of news at the moment, but with the oil hopefully about to flow, news shouldn't be too long now.

Also, many people talking of more fund raising, hence the static SP at the moment, could be a possibility before our next hike up

Still looks like it could be a fantastic year ahead....IMHO

[evilsatan]

Good shout on the update, RNS released this morning. No massive news but a good update outlining our position and plans for the year ahead. Good news that we are ready to produce from SH-1 and SH-3 though.

RNS Number : 3174A
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd
31 January 2011

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP)
("Gulf Keystone" or "the Company")

Kurdistan Operational Update


Gulf Keystone today provides an update on its active work program in Kurdistan.

Sheikh Adi - 1

The Sheikh Adi-1 exploration well is currently at the 13.375 inch casing point at the bottom of the Cretaceous interval after side tracking around a section of the bottom hole assembly that had become stuck in the open hole. The forward plan is to set 13.375 inch casing and drill out into the top of the Jurassic age formations and the first of the primary exploration targets for this well.

Shaikan-2

The Shaikan-2 appraisal well (9 km east of Shaikan-1) is currently drilling 17.5 inch hole at approximately 1,210 metres. The forward plan is to drill to the bottom of the Cretaceous interval, set 13.375 inch casing and then drill into the first of the Jurassic age target intervals.

Extended Well Test

The Shaikan-1 discovery well and the Shaikan-3 well are both now tied into the extended well test facility and ready to produce from the Jurassic age Sargelu reservoir. To date, the Company has sold over 63,000 barrels of oil into the domestic Kurdistan market, which has yielded valuable commercial and marketing information. The Company has signed an initial quarterly sales contract for 2,500 tons (for Sargelu crude oil, one ton equals 6.7 barrels) of oil per week to be sold into the Kurdistan domestic market.

3D Seismic Program

The 3D seismic data acquisition program has been fully completed on both the Shaikan and the Sheikh Adi structures. Data processing and seismic interpretation will continue until at least June of this year.

Shaikan-4

The location for this well, the second deep appraisal well on the Shaikan structure (6 km west of Shaikan-1), has been completed and the Company has signed a letter of intent with AOS for their Discoverer 3 drilling rig. This 2000 hp rig will begin moving from Tunisia to Kurdistan in February and well spud is currently anticipated by the end of March. Shaikan-4 is targeted to drill the Jurassic and Triassic age formations and if warranted, into the top of the Permian.

Akri-Bijeel

Kalegran (100% subsidiary of MOL) is currently rigging up on the Bekhme-1. This well is designated as a Jurassic exploration well with a target depth of 2,900 metres (depending on well results). The well is expected to spud by mid March.

John Gerstenlauer, Gulf Keystone's Chief Operating Officer commented "We will very shortly have two appraisal wells and two exploration wells underway in Kurdistan. We are very excited about the possibilities that this implies for our holdings in Kurdistan and we are looking forward to a very interesting and rewarding 2011."

[evilsatan]

Another RNS was released this morning, only just saw it. DGA got criticised as being unqualified for analysing the well data and producing P10 and P90 estimates of oil in place, GKP publicly spoke out against these comments defending DGA. Now they have had a third party analyse the data which has produced the same results as DGA.

Ryder Scott Kurdistan Study Results





Gulf Keystone announces the completion of an additional third party analysis of the gross oil in place resources resulting from the Shaikan-1 discovery well. The Company has previously reported gross oil in place resources, on a P90 to P10 basis, of 1.9 to 7.4 billion barrels with a mean value of 4.2 billion barrels. These values were the result of an independent, third party analysis conducted by Dynamic Global Advisors (DGA) of Houston, Texas.



In order to reinforce the potential size of this world class oil discovery, the Company commissioned Ryder Scott, also of Houston, Texas to do an additional third party analysis, using all data available through November 30, 2010.



The Ryder Scott results, for gross Total Petroleum-Initially-in-Place (PIIP), on the same P90 to P10 basis and using more conservative porosity and water saturation cutoffs, was 1.52 to 7.52 billion barrels of total PIIP with a mean of 4.04 billion barrels. The full study is posted on the Company's website.



John Gerstenlauer, Gulf Keystone's Chief Operating Officer commented



"The Ryder Scott study resulted in essentially the same gross range of total PIIP, despite using an even more conservative porosity and water saturation cutoff on the net pay interval calculations. This clearly confirms the earlier PIIP estimates made by both Gulf Keystone and DGA, demonstrates the robust nature of this oil discovery and bodes well for future upside potential."

[evilsatan]

Unexpected but we rose 2% this afternoon after falling all morning. Goldman Sachs have upgraded us due to the price of oil although I have a feeling the price of oil has nothing to do with it. Also there are several sites reporting that oil exports have resumed from Kurdistan

Goldman Sachs upgrades AIM-listed exploration juniors due to higher oil price
Tuesday, February 01, 2011 by Jamie Ashcroft
Goldman Sachs has upgraded a host of exploration and production juniors after it increased its 2011 oil price forecasts from US$85 to US$100 per barrel.
This new forecast is actually in-line with current prices that have broken through the US$100 mark for the first time since 2008, amid the political uncertainty in North Africa and the Middle East.
The banking giant’s London-based analyst team looked at several E&P juniors and they tipped a handful stocks in particular – including Dominion Petroleum (LONPL) and Chariot Oil (LON:CHAR) - who could benefit from important farm-out deals in the coming months.
Goldman upgraded Dominion to a ‘buy’ and increased its price target from 7.28 to 10.53 pence per share - which implies 54 percent upside from the current price.
It also upgraded it guidance on Cove Energy (LON:COVE) and Coastal Energy (LON:CEO) adding both stocks to its buy list, targeting 155 and 775 pence respectively.
Meanwhile the analysts also revised its price targets for several other companies due to the higher oil price forecast.
Goldman rates Aurelian Oil & Gas (LON:AUL) as a ‘buy’ and it upped its target from 103 to 253 pence per share.
Similarly it maintains a ‘buy’ rating for Nighthawk Energy (LON:HAWK, OTCQX:NHEGY) and Northern Petroleum (LON:NOP), with price targets being raised to 20.35 and 258 pence respectively.
The analysts kept their ‘neutral’ rating for Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP) although the price target has been increased from 172 to 234 pence per share. Gulfsands Petroleum (LON:GPX) also has a ‘neutral’ rating but the target increases from 421 to 478 pence.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/...ice-25131.html

[Eddie_M]

Yipeee.. Looks like the news we have all been waiting for
Monday morning should be fun ...........!!!!

BAGHDAD (AFP) - Iraq will respect profit-sharing contracts signed by the Kurdistan region with foreign oil firms, ending a long-standing dispute between the two sides, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki told AFP Saturday.

http://www.afp.com/afpcom/en/taglibrary/know-how/text
http://www.firatnews.com/index.php?rupel=nuce&nuceID=40069

Recognized the oil agreements with Baghdad, the Kurdistan

BAGHDAD - Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, the central Baghdad government, signed on oil profit-sharing agreements with the Kurdistan Region to show respect, he said.

Nouri al-Maliki, the AFP said, "Oil Minister has accepted these contracts because the (oil) extraction technique is different from Kurdistan and Basra," he said. "Kurdistan needs more effort, but is closer to the surface in Basra," said al-Maliki, "but the Iraq south of Kurdistan, it is difficult to make the service contracts it is normal," he said.

Management for a long time in Baghdad, Iraq in force in other parts extracted from a barrel of oil companies and imposed a fee paying service agreements. Kurdistan Region to share the profits from the operation of foreign companies and resources based on the signed agreements. Government in Baghdad so far rejected these agreements.

Kurdistan Region on 1 June 2009, the first time in October 2009 but it began to export oil exports, the central government was suspended as a result of the conflict.

This description of the Federal Region of Kurdistan, one and a half years later after the start of pumping oil for export coincided. Wednesday evening, February 2 Tawke oil for this purpose between the bed with the oil pipeline infrastructure to Ceyhan was tested.

Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Barham Salih, told AFP on February 2, "we began to experiment to export," he reported that oil companies began pilot studies.

Kurds, for the first time on 1 June 2009, began to export its own oil, but the central government in Baghdad on October 14 2009, exports halted due to disagreements.

ANF NEWS AGENCY

GOOD LUCK ALL..........Edd

[evilsatan]

I don't want to get my hopes up as the Iraqi media constantly contradicts itself but things have been going well recently, suspicious large trades have been going through, Goldman sachs upgraded us, exports resumed so ratification was inevitable. If this is the real deal we can expect an RNS on Monday. This will help our FTSE250 application if we don't get taken over first.

[Waka]

fuck fuck fuck and I was trying to top up on friday!

[evilsatan]

fuck fuck fuck and I was trying to top up on friday!

You still have time, if you are lucky there won't be a RNS tomorrow. I think I will open a T20 buy tomorrow, I tried opening one at the start of last week when the SP was in the mid 150 range but my limit order wasn't filled. There are now at least 5 different news outlets reporting Baghdad has agreed the contracts are legal.