The Scottish Champion Hurdle takes place at Ayr on Saturday, 16th April, on the supporting card of the Scottish Grand National. Unlike its

Cheltenham equivalent, the Scottish Champion Hurdle is a handicap, which means less classy hurdlers are given a chance to taste glory in

the race, and lower rated horses have fared better in the past 10 years.

Below we take a look at the trends for past 10 runnings:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-1-4
5yo: 1-9-22
6yo: 4-3-22
7yo: 3-4-26
8yo: 0-0-8
9yo: 2-0-10
10yo+: 1-1-9
7 of 10 winners were aged 6 or 7, though that age group has represented approximately 47.5% of the total runners.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 2-7-41
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 8-11-60
Horses carrying lower weights are strongly favoured. All 19 horses attempting to carry 11-0+ in this since 2001 have been beaten, and only

3 have been placed.
Top Weight: 6UP3UF897946F (0-0-13) has a shocking record in this.

Official Ratings
Horses rated 142 or higher: 2-5-38
Horses rated 141 or lower: 8-13-65
In the last 4 years all 12 placed finishers were officially rated 141 or lower.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times since August 1st
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
9 of 10 winners were 1st, 2nd or 3rd season hurdles
9 of 10 winners had 5 to 16 previous hurdles starts
7 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap hurdles
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap hurdles
7 of 10 winners were rated 80+ on the flat (3 exceptions were all bumper winners)
6 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or higher hurdle, however 4 of the last 5 had won at no better than class 3, the trend is swinging

towards less exposed hurdlers

Other Races
Defending Scottish Champion Hurdler (Overturn): 4 (0-0-1)
The great Sea Pigeon is only horse to ever win back to back runnings.
Swinton Handicap Hurdle winner (Eradicate): 1 (1-0-1)
Ladbrokes Greatwood Handicap Hurdle winner (Via Galilei): 2 (0-1-1)
Elite Hurdle winner (Nearby): 6 (0-0-1)
Scottish County Hurdle winner (Hunterview): F4 (0-0-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Swinton Hurdle, finishing 140
2 of 10 winners ran in the Imperial Cup, finishing 00
2 of 10 winners ran in the County Hurdle, finishing 32
2 of 10 winners ran in the Greatwood Hurdle, finishing F0
2 of 10 winners ran in Silver Cross H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 01
2 of 10 winners ran in John Smith's H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 23

Trainers
Philip Hobbs (2-0-6) has trained the winner twice in the last 10 years.
Donald McCain (1-0-2) trained Overturn to win the race last year, while Michael Scudamore (0-1-1) trained Gloucester to finish runner-up.

Both horses are entered again this year.
Paul Nicholls (0-5-11) has seen 5 of his 11 runners make the frame but he has only won the race once, in 1999 with Fadalko.

Price
6 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting
No very strong trends on prices for this race.
Favourites (3-5-11) have fared alright, gaining 3 wins and 5 places, showing a level stakes return of 0.00.


Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 6 or 7
· Carrying 10-9 or less
· Officially rated 141 or lower
· 1st, 2nd or 3rd season hurdler
· Run in 7 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning no more than 3)
· Officially rated 80+ on the flat (or won a bumper)
· Has run in past 35 days
· Finished in first 4 in County and/or Swinton Hurdle
· Finished in first 3 in a h’cap hurdle at Aintree Festival last time
· Trained by Phillip Hobbs