IRISH GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2011
Irish Grand National Day at Fairyhouse always takes place on Easter Monday, which, this year, falls on the 25th April. The race happens much later than usual this year, which means there’s a greater gap between it and its Aintree equivalent, and that could mean we see a few more runners make the journey over.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-2-8
7yo: 3-6-44
8yo: 4-6-68
9yo: 2-10-61
10yo: 1-4-43
11yo: 0-1-15
12yo+: 0-1-4
Horses aged 6 to 8: 7-14-120
Horses aged 9 or older: 3-16-123
The last 5 winners have been aged 7 or 8.
Horses aged 10+ have won just 1 of the last 10 (1-6-62) and only 10% of their representatives have made the places.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-6 or more: 2-9-91
Horses carrying 10-5 or less: 8-21-152
The last 7 winners have all carried 10-8 or less.
Of the 35 horses to carry 11-0+ in last 10 years (0-3-35), none have won and only 3 made the places.
Record of top weight is 5P4PPPPPFF (0-1-10), only 2 of the 10 horses to be allotted top weight have completed the course.
5 of 10 winners were racing from out of the handicap, none by more than 7lbs.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 137 or higher: 0-6-58
Horses rated 125 to 136: 9-15-152
Horses rated 124 or lower: 1-9-33
9 of 10 winners were officially rated 125 to 136.
Breeding
Irish bred: 8-25-200
French bred: 2-4-21
British bred: 0-1-17
USA bred: 0-0-5
8 of 10 winners have been Irish bred but they have represented over 82% of the runners. Proportionally French bred horses have superior record, having gained 2 wins and 4 places from approximately 8.6% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on last completed NH start
9 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
10 of 10 winners had won at a right-handed track
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
8 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ (1 exception had won a 3M hurdle, other had won a 3M point to point)
10 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 13 chases
10 of 10 winners had finished first past post in 2 to 4 chases
10 of 10 winners ran in 9 or fewer handicap chases (won no more than 4)
8 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher (2 exceptions 2nd in class 2 chase)
8 of 10 winners won a chase worth 19K+ (2 exceptions placed in 19K+ race)
10 of 10 winners had first start in a hurdle, bumper or point to point
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Bluesea Cracker): 55 (0-0-2)
4M NH Chase Challenge Cup winner (Chicago Grey): 1 (1-0-1)
Thyestes Chase winner (Siegemaster): 177 (1-0-3)
Previous season's Hugh McMahon Chase winner (Caim Hill): 871 (1-0-3)
Leopardstown Handicap Chase winner (Rare Bob): 3P (0-1-2)
Paddy Power H'cap Chase winner (Majestic Concorde): 0P52 (0-1-4)
4 of 10 winners had finished in the first 5 in the 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham that season or the previous season
4 of 10 winners ran in Paddy Power Handicap Chase, finishing 9207
3 of 10 winners ran in the Thyestes that season, finishing F10
2 of 10 winners ran in the Carrickmines Handicap Chase, finishing 2P
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in previous season's Hugh McMahon Memorial Novice Chase, finishing 41
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cork National, finishing 3P
Trainers
British trained runners (3-1-16) have won 3 of the last 7.
No trainer has saddled more than 1 winner in the past decade. Trainers who have gained a win and a placed finisher include Dessie Hughes (1-3-15), Tony Martin (1-2-16), Noel Meade (1-2-18) and Ferdy Murphy (1-1-4).
Other trainers to have saddled the winner in the past 10 years are James Motherway (1-0-1) Bob Buckler (1-0-2), Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-2), Mouse Morris (1-0-3) and Martin Brassil (1-0-3).
Michael Hourigan (0-6-11) has seen over half his runners make the frame since 2001 and he has saddled a placed finisher in each of the last 5 runnings.
Arthur Moore (0-3-15) and Oliver McKiernan (0-2-2) have also both had multiple placed runners in the past 10 years.
Several big Irish trainers have failed to find a single placed finisher in this race in the past decade such as Willie Mullins (0-0-13), Paul Nolan (0-0-10), Charlie Swan (0-0-8), Tom Taaffe (0-0-5) and Jessica Harrington (0-0-5).
Price
It has been a race for outsiders recently with 5 of the last 7 winners being sent off between 20/1 and 33/1.
Favourites (0-2-12) have gained no wins and just 2 places in the past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 10.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Irish or French bred
· Aged 6 to 9 (ideally 7 or 8)
· Carrying 10-8 or less
· Officially rated 125 to 136
· Won over 3M+
· Run at least twice this season & run in the past 50 days
· Won at a right-handed track
· Run in 6 to 13 chases (winning 2 to 4)
· Contested no more than 9 handicap chases
· Won a class 2 or higher chase worth 19K+
· Ran in this season’s Paddy Power Handicap Chase
· Finished in first 4 in last season’s Hugh McMahon Novice Chase
· Had first run in a bumper/hurdle/point to point
· Trained in Great Britain
· Trained by D T Hughes, A J Martin, O McKiernan or M Hourigan
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