POWERS GOLD CUP TRENDS 2011

[ganjaman2]

The Powers Gold Cup is the highlight of the first day of the Irish Grand National meeting, which takes place on Sunday 24th April. It’s a grade 1 novice chase run over 2M 4F and usually attracts many of the best Irish novice chasers. The proximity of this year's race to the Punchestown Festival may impact on the quality, though there looks to be some strong entries.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 3-4-15
7yo: 3-7-36
8yo: 2-3-18
9yo: 1-1-11
10yo: 0-0-2
11yo: 1-0-1
No very strong age trends though 6yos do have a good record, winning 3 of the last 10 from just 18% of the total runners.

Gender
Mares: 741 (1-0-3) have gained 1 win at 7/2 and a 4th & a 7th, both at 25/1 from 3 runners.

Breeding
Irish bred: 9-11-66
USA bred: 1-1-2
French bred: 0-2-8
British bred: 0-1-6
German bred: 0-0-1
9 of 10 winners have been Irish bred, but they have represented almost 80% of the total runners, so hardly a strong trend.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (1 exception finished 5th in RSA Chase, other had previous start in a listed Aintree H'cap Hurdle)
9 of 10 winners won on 1 of their last 2 completed starts
7 of 10 winners posted their highest chase RPR last time out
9 of 10 winners had their last run in the past 60 days
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won 1 to 3 times over fences
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F or further (exception yet to run over further than 2M 2F)
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on chase debut (8 of 10 posted RPR of 116+)
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a graded hurdle
6 of 10 winners had won a grade chase (4 exceptions won just once over fences)
9 of 10 winners had won a NH race worth 13K+
4 of 10 winners had won a graded race at Fairyhouse (3 of 6 others were having first course start)
9 of 10 winners had their first start in a pt to pt, bumper or hurdles race (exception was rated 97 on flat)

Other races
Greenmount Park Novice Chase winner (Mr Cracker): 11 (2-0-2)
P J Moriarty Novice Chase winner (Citizen Vic): 1273 (1-2-4)
Craddockstown Novice Chase winner (Realt Dubh): 21 (1-1-2)
3M Navan EBF Novice Chase winner (Tharawaat): 1 (1-0-1)
Southampton Goodwill chase winner (Loosen My Load): 1 (1-0-1)
Hugh McMahon Memorial Nov Chase winner (Mr Cracker): 1U (1-0-2)
Nas Na Riogh Novice Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): 16P (1-0-3)
Flyingbolt Novice Chase winner (Saludos): 33 (0-2-2)
2M Navan EBF Novice Chase winner (Saludos): 33P (0-2-3)
Irish Arkle winner (Realt Dubh): 2F27 (0-2-4)
Florida Pearl Nov Chase winner (Thegreatjohnbrownie): 2P274 (0-2-5)
Dobbins Beginners Chase winner (Noble Prince): F2 (0-1-2)
Bord Na Mona Novice Chase winner (Realt Dubh): 4F24 (0-1-4)
3 of 10 winners ran in the P.J. Moriarty Chase, finishing 133
3 of 10 winners ran in the Drinmore Novice Chase, finishing 146
2 of 10 winners ran in the Bord Na Mona Novice Chase, finishing PU
2 of 10 winners ran in Greenmount Novice Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in Fort Leney Novice Chase, finishing 43

Trainers
Noel Meade (2-2-11) has won this twice (2003 & 2009) since 2001.
Michael Hourigan (1-0-2) is the only other trainer with an entry to have won this race in the past 10 years.
Willie Mullins (0-3-14) saddled the 2nd and 3rd in 2009 and saddled a lucky 3rd last year but has yet to win this race.

Price
7 of 10 winners were priced between 7/2 and 7/1
Jadanli at 25/1 last year has been the only winner not to come from the first 5 in the betting in past 10 years.
Favourites (2-4-10) have won just 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 3.83.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Finished in first 3 last time out in past 60 days
Finished first 3 on chase debut (posting RPR of 116+)
Won 1 of their last 2 completed chase starts
Won 1 to 3 times over fences
Won over 2M 4F+
Won a graded chase (or won just once over fences)
Won a NH race worth 19K+
Won or placed in a graded hurdle
Had first ever run in a bumper, pt to pt or hurdles race
Finished in first 4 in PJ Moriarty and/or Drinmore
Won Greenmount Park Novice Chase
Trained by Noel Meade
From first 5 in the betting

[ganjaman2]

1 21125 Blazing Tempo 38 7 W P Mullins80 135 131 143
2 32F127 Bob Lingo 49 9 Thomas Mullins 132 138 146
3 111343 Loosen My Load 38 7 Henry De Bromhead75 145 144 155
4 1-F53F Mikael D´Haguenet 39 7 W P Mullins80 — 133 158
5 801225 Montan 29 7 A J Martin 137 118 143
6 311371 Mr Cracker 21 6 Michael Hourigan50 143 132 151
7 4-1221 Noble Prince 38 7 Paul Nolan50 156 153 164
8 F6-1FF Quel Esprit 39 7 W P Mullins80 145 114 144
9 F12113 Realt Dubh 40 7 Noel Meade50 151 147 157
10 321117 Roi Du Mee 21 6 Gordon Elliott20 — 135 154
11 41F51 Saludos 70 7 Mrs John Harrington60 141 113 145
12 73-220 Sweeps Hill 176 7 John E Kiely — 72 127
13 U12164 Tharawaat 17 6 Gordon Elliott20 133 121 140
14 P0-114 Thegreatjohnbrowne 117 7 Noel Meade50 146 128 148