CORONATION CUP TRENDS 2011
The Investec Coronation Cup takes place on the supporting card of Epsom’s Oaks day on Friday 3rd June. It is a group 1 run over 1M 4F for
horses aged 4 and with a very decent prize on offer it usually attracts some of the best middle distance horses in Europe.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age
4yo: 4-11-40
5yo: 4-3-26
6yo: 2-1-10
7yo+: 0-0-4
No strong trends to be gleaned from the ages.
4yo winners usually ran well in a European Derby the previous season (2 of the 4 finished in the first 2 in the Irish Derby, 1 won the
German Derby and the other was Yeats who won 2 Derby trials but a setback meant he missed the rest of the season)
Breeding
9 of 10 winners were by a horse that finished in first 2 in the Irish, French or German Derby’s (exception’s sire ran in USA, where he was
a multiple grade 1 winner)
5 of last 6 winners were sired by Sadler’s Wells or a son of Sadler’s Wells (Sadler’s Wells x 2, Montjeu x 2 & Galileo x 1)
Gender
Fillies and mares (0-5-12) last won the race in 1984 but have found 5 places from 12 runners in the past decade, including the 2nd and 3rd
last season.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had run that year
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (exceptions were 5th in Arc & 8th in Sheema Classic)
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 111+ last time
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F+ (1 exception had yet to race over further than 1M 2F)
10 of 10 winners had won a group race
7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (3 exceptions had won group 2)
Other Races
Previous year's winner (Fame And Glory): 13 (1-1-2)
Jockey Club Stakes winner (Dandino): 34121757 (2-1-8)
Tattersalls Gold Cup winner (So You Think): 31 (1-1-2)
John Porter Stakes winner (Indian Days): 3183 (1-0-4)
Middleton Stakes winner (Midday): 2 (0-1-1)
Ormonde Stakes winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 38 (0-1-2)
Previous season's King Edward VII winner (Monterosso): 24 (0-1-2)
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 5) ran in last season's Arc, finishing 4566
3 of 10 winners ran in the Jockey Club Stakes, finishing 131
3 of 10 winners ran in the Sheema Classic, finishing 835
2 of 10 winners ran in the Yorkshire Cup last time, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the Mooresbridge Stakes last time, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in last season's King George, finishing 65
2 of 10 winners ran in last season's Epsom Derby, finishing 52
2 of 10 winners ran in last season's Breeders Cup Turf, finishing 15
2 of 10 winners ran in last season's Irish St Leger, finishing 34
4 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Derby as a 3yo, finishing 5211
2 of 10 winners won the St Leger as a 3yo
2 of 10 winners won the German Derby as a 3yo
Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (4-3-12) has won 4 of the last 6 runnings of this race.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-2-8) won the race in 1999 and 2001 and trained the runner-up in 2003 and 2004 but his 2 runners the past 5 years have
both been unplaced.
Michael Stoute (1-0-5) won the race in 2009 with Ask and also back in 2000 with Daliapour.
Price
10 of 10 winners have been priced 8/1 or below
This has not been a race to be looking for a longshot with the last 10 winners all going off single-figure odds, however it has not been a
great race for favourites.
Favourites (2-3-10) have just 2 of the last 10 and 5 of the last 10 favs have been unplaced. They show a level stakes loss of 5.90 over
past 10 years.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Has run this season
· Finished in the first 3 last time out
· Had last run in Sheema Classic, Yorkshire Cup or Jockey Club
· Won a group race over 1M 4F+
· Finished in the first 2 in a group 1
· Ran in the Irish Derby as a 3yo
· Ran in last season’s Arc De Triomphe
· Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Michael Stoute
· Priced 8/1 or below (favourites have a poor record
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