PRETTY POLLY STAKES TRENDS 2011
The Stobart Ireland Pretty Polly Stakes is the big race on the Saturday card of the Curragh Derby meeting which takes place this weekend. The race is run over 1M 2F for fillies and mares and was promoted to group 1 status in 2004. Older horses have dominated in recent times and two of the best females in training, Midday and Snow Fairy, could resume battle in this.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 3-7-48
4yo: 4-8-25
5yo: 3-1-8
6yo: 0-0-3
Horses aged 4 or 5 have the best record: 7-9-33.
All 3 winners aged 3 finished in the first 5 in either the English or Irish 1000 Guineas.
Since the race became a group 1 in 2004:
3yo:1-4-27,
4yo+: 6-7-30
The only 3yo winner since 2004 has been Peeping Fawn, who came into the race on the back of a second in the Epsom Oaks, and followed the win in this by landing the Irish Oaks.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners (last 7) finished in the first 3 last time out (2 of 3 exceptions finished in first 5 in a Classic last time)
9 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season
10 of 10 winners ran in the past 45 days
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M to 1M2F
9 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race (exception was 2nd in group 1)
10 of 10 winners had contested a group 1 before
6 of 7 winners since 2004 (when race became a group 1) had finished in the first 3 in a group 1
Other Races
Blandford Stakes winner (Eleanora Duse): 1351 (2-0-4)
Dance Design Stakes winner (Obama Rule): 221 (1-2-3)
Middleton Stakes winner (Midday): 31 (1-1-2)
Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial winner (Empowering): 1 (1-0-1)
Nassau Stakes winner (Midday): 1 (1-0-1)
Hong Kong Cup winner (Snow Fairy): 1 (1-0-1)
4 of 10 winners ran in Prix De L'Opera last season, finishing 0132
3 of 10 winners ran in the Hopping Stakes, finishing 113
3 of 10 winners ran in the Blandford Stakes, finishing 311
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Yorkshire Oaks, finishing 82
2 of 10 winners ran in Middleton Stakes last time out, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in Tattersalls Gold Cup last time, finishing 23
3 of 3 winners aged 3 finished in first 5 in Irish/English 1000 Guineas
2 of 3 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 562
Trainers
Irish trained horses: 5-9-59
British trained horses: 5-5-22
French trained horses: 0-1-1
German trained horses: 0-1-2
British-trained runners (5-5-22) have won 5 of the last 10 runnings from approximately 26.2% of the total runners.
Jim Bolger (2-3-11) saddled Alexander Goldrun to win the race in back to back years in 2005 and 2006.
Michael Stoute (1-2-6), Kevin Prendergast (1-2-10) and Dermot Weld (1-1-7) have each saddled the winner and at least one placed finisher in past 10 years.
Aidan O’Brien (1-0-13) does not have a great record in this. Of his 13 runners, 7 were sent off at 8/1 or shorter and only one made the frame.
Price
10 of 10 winners were sent off 9/2 or shorter
Not a race to be looking for an outsider with all the last 10 winners coming from the first 3 in the betting.
Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 4.38.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 or 5
· Finished in the first 3 last time out, in past 45 days
· Run once or twice in 2011
· Won over 1M or 1M 2F
· Won a group race
· Finished in the first 3 in a group 1
· First 3 in Prix De L’Opera, Hopping or Blandford Stakes
· First 3 in the Middleton Stakes or Tatt’s Gold Cup
· Trained in Britain or by Jim Bolger
· Priced 9/2 or shorter
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