IRISH DERBY TRENDS 2011

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The Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby takes place at the Curragh on Sunday 26th June. Unfortunately neither the Epsom Derby winner, Pour Moi, nor the French Derby winner, Reliable Man, will be travelling over for the race. As always Aidan O’Brien has a strong hand in the race, while Carlton House looks likely to travel over and become the first British-based winner since 1994.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding
Irish bred: 8-13-66
British bred: 1-6-23
German bred: 1-0-1
American bred: 0-1-12
French bred: 0-0-1
8 of 10 winners were by group 1 winner with a stamina index of 9.8+
7 of 10 winners were by Sadler’s Wells or a son of Sadler’s Wells (Montjeu x 3, Sadler’s Wells x 2 & Galileo x 2)

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd over 7F to 9F on 2yo debut

10 of 10 winners won over 7F+ as a 2yo
7 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
10 of 10 winners had had 4 to 6 career starts
10 of 10 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
9 of 10 winners had won a group race (exception was Frozen Fire in 2008 who was a slightly fortuitous winner)
8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 40 days

2yo Form
Criterium International winner (Roderic O'Connor): 23 (0-2-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 168
2 of 10 winners ran in the Criterium de Saint Cloud, finishing 21

3yo Form
Dante Stakes winner (Carlton House): 231 (1-2-3)
Chester Vase winner (Treasure Beach): 612 (1-1-3)
Leopt'wn 2000 Guineas Trial winner (Dunboyne Express): 015 (1-0-3)
Record of horses placed in Epsom Derby: 31554841332415 (3-4-14)
7 of 10 winners ran in the Epsom Derby last time, finishing 1133502
5 of 10 winners won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial
5 of 10 winners ran in the Ballsax, finishing 1121
2 of 10 winners ran in the French Derby last time, finishing 20
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dante, finishing 21
9 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a recognised Derby Trial (exception had won Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial and was 4th in 2000 Guineas & 3rd in Irish 2000 Guineas)

Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (7-10-43) has won 7 of the last 10, including the last 5, but his runners have accounted for 44 of the 105 runners (41%) to go to post in the past 10 years. His first string has a record of 5-1-10.
Dermot Weld (1-1-8) is the only other trainer with an entry to have won the race since 2001.
British-trained runners (0-5-24) have failed to win the race in the past decade despite having accounted for approximately 22.6% of the runners.
Michael Stoute (0-4-7) has seen 4 of his 7 runners make the frame.

Price
8 of 10 winners have come from the first 2 in the betting and priced 5/1 or below.
Favourites (5-4-10) have won 5 of the last 10 and they show a level stakes profit of 1.72 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Sired by a group 1 winner with stamina index of 9.8+
· Ideally sired by Galileo or Montjeu
· Won over 7F+ as a 2yo
· Posted highest RPR last time in past 40 days
· Had 4 to 6 career start (running 2 to 3 times this season)
· Won a group race
· Won over 1M 2F+
· First 2 in a Derby trial (ideally Derrinstown or Dante)
· Ran in Epsom or French Derby last time out
· Trained by Aidan O’Brien
· From first 2 in the betting (no bigger than 5/1