ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2011

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The Coral Eclipse takes place at Sandown on Saturday, 2nd July. A group 1 run over 1M 2F, it is the first chance for the classic generation


to take on the older horses at the highest level, however the best 3yos have decided to bypass this race.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
3yo: 3-5-28
4yo: 4-9-32
5yo: 3-2-20
6yo+: 0-1-6
No strong trends on prices, though this race has not been won by horse aged over 5.
All three 3yo winners were trained in Ireland and finished in first 4 in the 2000 Guineas.
All seven older winners ran at Royal Ascot last time.

Gender
Mares (0-0-4) have failed to fill a single place despite 3 of their 4 representatives being sent off shorter than 5/1.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winner achieved career highest RPR in last 3 starts
10 of 10 winners had run between 2 and 4 times that season
10 of 10 winners had run in past 30 days
5 of 10 winners had yet to win over further than a mile (other 5 were distance winners)
10 of 10 winner had won a group 1
9 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd in a group 1 this year
6 of 10 winners were having their first course start (3 others were course winners)
2 of 3 winners aged 3 had won a group 1 as a 2yo (exception had won a group 2 and not contested a group 1 as a juvenile)

Other Races
Previous year's highest finisher to return: 411 (2-0-3)
Tattersalls Gold Cup winner (So You Think): 51 (1-0-2)
Brigadier Gerard Stakes winner (Workforce): 24 (0-1-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in Prince of Wales Stakes last time, finishing 5432
3 of 10 winners ran in Queen Anne Stakes last time, finishing 115
4 of 10 winners ran in previous Champion Stakes, finishing 1801
3 of 3 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 241
3 of 3 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 201
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dubai Duty Free, finishing 81
2 of 10 winners ran in the Lockinge, finishing 18
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season’s Eclipse, finishing 27
7 of 7 winners aged 4+ finished in first 5 in Prince of Wales or Queen Anne Stakes last time out
3 of 3 winners aged 3 finished in the first 4 in the 2000 Guineas & finished in the first 3 in the Derby or St James Palace last time out

Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (3-4-19) has trained the winner 3 times in the past 10 years.
Michael Stoute (2-3-12) has had 2 winners and 5 of his 12 runners have made the frame. Stoute has trained the winner 5 times in the races


history, all 5 of those winners were previous group 1 winners aged 4 or 5.

Price
10 of 10 winners have come from the first 4 in the betting
Only one winner in the past decade was sent off greater than 8/1.
Favourites (3-4-10) have supplied the last 2 winners however they show a level stakes loss of 2.27 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Male aged 3 that finished in first 4 in 2000 Guineas & Derby
· Males aged 4+ that finished first 5 at Royal Ascot
· Had 2 to 4 runs this season
· Run in last 30 days
· Had won a group 1
· Finished in first 2 in a group 1 this year
· First 5 in the Queen Anne, Prince Of Wales or Derby last time
· Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Michael Stoute
· From first 4 in the betting

[ganjaman2]

Only 8 entered at 5 day stage

1 10-446 Cape Blanco 18 4 9-7 A P O´Brien53 — 126 131
2 7654-1 Confront 21 6 9-7 Sir Michael Stoute57 102 109
3 33-362 Jan Vermeer 8 4 9-7 A P O´Brien53 — 111 120
4 13-112 So You Think 17 5 9-7 A P O´Brien53 — 124 136
5 280-23 Sri Putra 17 5 9-7 Roger Varian57 Neil Callan 114
6 2151-1 Workforce 37 4 9-7 Sir Michael Stoute57 128 120
7 12411- Snow Fairy 202 4 9-4 Ed Dunlop54 120 123 130
8 1-6313 Alexander Pope 15 3 8-10 A P O´Brien53 — 107