JULY CUP TRENDS 2011

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The July Cup is one of the sprinting highlights of the British flat season and it takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 9th July. A group 1, run over 6 furlongs for 3 year olds and older, the winners of the Golden Jubilee and Kings’s Stand finished 1-2 last year, however the winners of those 2 races this season have chosen to bypass this.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 3-4-42
4yo: 3-6-47
5yo: 3-7-35
6yo: 1-0-18
7yo+: 0-3-18
3 to 5 year olds have won 9 of the last 10, though they have represented 77.5% of the total runners in the past 10 years.
Horses older than 5 have a poor combined record of 1-3-36.

Gender
Fillies & mares (2-4-17) have done well in this race recently. They have won 2 of the last 10 runnings from just over 10% of the total


runners and over a third of their representatives have made the frame.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in last 3 starts
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (all 3 exception were unplaced in a Royal Ascot group 1 last time out)
10 of 10 winners had run in past 30 days
9 of 10 winners had previously won over 6F or 7F (exception was Fleeting Spirit in 2009 whose two previous runs at this trip had been


seconds in a group 1 and group 2, both defeats by less than a length)
8 of 10 winners had won a group race (1 exception was 2nd in a group 2 & other was listed winner having first try in a group race)
6 of 10 winners had finished in first 2 in a group 1 (2 of 4 exceptions had yet to run in group 1, other 2 exceptions had finished 5th in


group 1)
9 of 10 winners ran at Royal meeting on their last start (3 Kings Stand, 4 Golden Jubilee, 1 Jersey, 1 Queen Anne)

Other Races
Highest placed finisher in Golden Jubilee: 0720016501 (2-1-10)
Highest placed finisher in Kings Stand: 2124075002 (1-3-10)
Middle Park Stakes winner (Dream Ahead): 1342 (1-2-4)
Carnarvon Stakes winner (Elzaam): 019 (1-0-3)
Cammidge Trophy winner (Jimmy Styles): 190 (1-0-3)
Prix Maurice De Gheest winner (Regal Parade): 8041 (1-0-4)
Prix Morny winner (Dream Ahead): 2 (0-1-1)
Leisure Stakes winner (Bated Breath): 03 (0-1-2)
Abernant Stakes winner (Genki): 0079602 (0-1-7)
Chipchase Stakes winner (Genki): 90 (0-0-2)
Greenlands Stakes winner (Hitchens): 54 (0-0-2)
Duke Of York Stakes winner (Delegator): 006080 (0-0-6)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Kings Stand, finishing 23302
4 of 10 winners ran in the Golden Jubilee, finishing 5161
3 of 10 winners ran in the Abernant Stakes, finishing 222
2 of 10 winners ran in the Palace House Stakes, finishing 71
2 of 10 winners ran in the Temple Stakes, finishing 08
2 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of York, finishing 85

Trainers
British-trained: 7-16-125
Irish-trained: 2-1-13
French-trained: 1-0-7
Australian-trained: 0-2-9
Other: 0-1-7
Aidan O’Brien (2-1-12) has trained the winner 3 times in past 12 years (1999, 2001 & 2010).
Dandy Nicholls (1-1-9) saddled the 1-2 in 2002 but his 7 runners since have all been unplaced.
Australian-based trainers (0-2-9) have had plenty of success in the Royal Ascot sprints in the past 10 years; however their 9 runners in


this race since 2001 have produced 0 winners and just 2 placed finishers despite the fact they have saddled the favourite in 4 of the 6


years they have had a runner.

Draw (stats based on new stall ordering)
Horses drawn in bottom 5 stalls: 6-9-50
Horses drawn in the middle: 3-6-60
Horses drawn in top 5 stalls: 1-5-50
There has been a definite bias to be drawn low with 6 of the last 7 winners coming from stall 7 or lower.

Price
8 of 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting
Not a particularly strong trends race as far as prices go with 5 of the last 10 winners going off at double-figure odds.
Favourites (3-2-11) have a fair record in this race having won 3 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes profit of 1.50.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 3 to 5
· Mares do well
· Ran in last 30 days
· Finished in first 3 last time (or unplaced in an Ascot group 1)
· Finished in first 6 in Golden Jubilee and/or King’s Stand
· Placed in the Abernant Stakes
· Won a group race
· Finished in the first 2 in a group 1
· Won over 6F or 7F
· Drawn low (ideally in stalls 1 to 7)
· Trained in Europe

[ganjaman2]

19 entered






1 100-16 Amico Fritz 21 5 9-5 H-A Pantall 112 105 123
2 4-0115 Bated Breath 21 4 9-5 Roger Charlton83 Steve Drowne 113 107
3 223-60 Dalghar 21 5 9-5 Andrew Balding62 Jimmy Fortune 111 113 128
4 148-1 Delegator 59 5 9-5 Saeed Bin Suroor35 Frankie Dettori 112 122 126
5 2-1781 Genki 14 7 9-5 Roger Charlton83 George Baker 110 107 123
6 554410 Hitchens 21 6 9-5 David Barron56 Silvestre De Sousa 109 117 124
7 663189 Jimmy Styles 21 7 9-5 Clive Cox79 Philip Robinson 107 100 120
8 38/402 Monsieur Chevalier 21 4 9-5 Richard Hannon66 Kieren Fallon 116
9 4-5223 Regal Parade 14 7 9-5 David Nicholls38 Adrian Nicholls 114
10 60-630 Royal Rock 21 7 9-5 Chris Wall50 103 101 116
11 2-3723 Star Witness 21 4 9-5 Danny O´Brien Steven Arnold 115 109 130
12 0-0125 War Artist 25 8 9-5 Markus Klug Olivier Peslier 115 96 125
13 5407/6 Winker Watson 14 6 9-5 Mick Channon70 Hugh Bowman 97 90 113
14 1110-0 Swiss Diva 25 5 9-2 David Elsworth25 110 111 126
15 1115-5 Dream Ahead 25 3 8-13 David Simcock53 126 129 140
16 33-514 Elzaam 21 3 8-13 Roger Varian100 Richard Hills 114 116 132
17 5-2431 Libranno 14 3 8-13 Richard Hannon66 112 121 127
18 00-434 Oracle 24 3 8-13 A P O´Brien82 115 122 129
19 13-222 Zoffany 6 3 8-13 A P O´Brien82 120 127 135