SUSSEX STAKES TRENDS 2011
The Sussex Stakes is one of two group 1 races that take place during the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Festival, which kicks off on Tuesday 26th
July. It’s the highlight of Wednesday’s card and this year’s renewal looks likely to set up the much anticipated matched between Canford
Cliffs and Frankel.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age
3yo: 6-8-36
4yo: 1-5-27
5yo: 2-1-11
6yo+: 1-2-9
6 of 10 winners were aged 3 and they have also filled 14 of 26 places from just 43% of the runners.
Of the 4 winners aged 4+, 3 finished in the first 2 in the Queen Anne.
Gender
Fillies & mares (1-3-7) appear to have a fairly good record in this race, gaining 1 win and 3 places from just 7 runners, however Soviet
Song accounted for the win and 2 of the places from her 3 runs in the race.
Recent Form
10 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
9 of 10 winners had run between 3 and 5 times that season
10 of 10 winners had run in past 55 days
8 of 10 winners had previously won over a mile (two exceptions had finished 2nd and 3rd in a group 1 over 1M-1M2F)
7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (3 exceptions had won a group 3, one had yet to run in group 1, the other two had finished 2nd & 3rd in
group 1 company)
8 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at the Royal meeting that season
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Canford Cliffs): 222 (0-3-3)
St James Palace Stakes winner (Frankel): 3145211 (3-2-7)
2000 Guineas winner (Frankel): 191 (2-0-3)
Premio Vittorio Di Capua winner (Rio De La Plata): 31 (1-1-2)
Queen Anne Stakes winner (Canford Cliffs): 412 (1-1-3)
Previous season's Dewhurst winner (Frankel): 14 (1-0-2)
Bet365 Mile winner (Dick Turpin): 73332 (0-2-5)
Middle Park Stakes winner (Dream Ahead): 3 (0-1-1)
Summer Mile winner (Dick Turpin): 663 (0-0-3)
4 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in 2000 Guineas, finishing 1143
4 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in St James Palace, finishing 2111
3 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in Irish 2000 Guineas, finishing 111
3 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in Dewhurst, finishing 217
3 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in Coventry, finishing 611
3 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in Queen Anne Stakes, finishing 221
2 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in the Lockinge, finishing 32
2 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in the Hong Kong Mile, finishing 53
Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (3-5-20) has won the race 3 times in the past 10 years, all 3 of his winners were 3yos, though he has only saddled 2 older
horses (Bach 7th in 2001 & Rip Van Winkle 2nd in 2010). His first strings have a record of 3-5-10.
Richard Hannon (2-1-7) and Saeed Bin Suroor (2-1-9) have both won the race twice in the past decade.
Price
9 of 10 winners have come from the first 4 in the betting and priced 15/2 or below.
Favourites (4-4-11) have a fair record in this race having won it 4 times in the last 10 years, showing a level stakes loss of 2.85.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 3 (or a 4yo+ that finished in first 2 in Queen Anne)
· Finished 1st or 2nd last time out & posted highest RPR
· Run 3 to 5 times in 2011
· Run in last 55 days
· Won over a mile
· Won a group 1
· Finished in the first two at Royal Ascot
· Trained by A O’Brien, R Hannon or S Bin Suroor
· From first 4 in the beting 15/2 or lower
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