JUDDMONTE INTERNATIONAL TRENDS 2011

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The Juddmonte International Stakes is the highlight of day 1 of York’s Ebor meeting, which begins on Wednesday 17th August. It’s a group 1
run over 1M 2½F for 3yos and upwards and it usually attracts a top class field. With York being abandoned in 2008, this race was run at
Newmarket but from a trends point of view we will focus on the last 10 runnings at York.


Below we take a look at trends for past 10 years (2000- 2010):


Age
3yo: 3-3-25
4yo: 5-6-28
5yo: 2-4-16
6yo+: 0-0-3
Horses aged 4 or 5 have a combined record of 7-10-44 which compares well to the record of 3yos of 3-3-25.


The three winners aged 3 were Sea The Stars (Derby & 2000 Guineas winner), Authorized (Derby winner) and Giant’s Causeway (runner-up in


English & Irish 2000 Guineas). All 3 were multiple group 1-winners.



Gender
Fillies/mares (0-0-4) have failed to make the places with any of their 4 runners, the best any of them finished was 6th.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
9 of 10 winners won or placed last time out
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 117+ last time out
8 of 10 winners had won a race this season (both exceptions were placed in a group 1 that season)
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+ (exception had finished runner-up in the Eclipse & 4th in Derby)
8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (2 exceptions 2nd in a group 1)
3 of 3 winners aged 3 won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo and finished in the first 2 in an English Classic

Other Races
Eclipse winner (So You Think): 131312 (3-2-6)
Champion Stakes winner (Twice Over): 12 (1-1-2)
Sussex Stakes winner (Frankel): 12 (1-1-2)
Racing Post Trophy winner (Casamento): 1 (1-0-1)
Beresford Stakes winner (Casamento): 1 (1-0-1)
2000 Guineas winner (Frankel): 1 (1-0-1)
St James Palace Stakes winner (Frankel): 14 (1-0-2)
Huxley Stakes winner (Await The Dawn): 32 (0-1-2)
Prix Ganay winner (Planteur): 27 (0-1-2)
Hardwicke Stakes winner (Await The Dawn): 52 (0-1-2)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Eclipse, finishing 141221
4 of 10 winners ran in the Prince Of Wales Stakes, finishing 4545
3 of 10 winners ran in the King George last time, finishing 253
2 of 10 winners ran in the Sussex Stakes last time, finishing 12
2 of 3 winners aged 3 ran in the Derby, finishing 11
2 of 3 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 21

Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (2-1-17) has won 2 of the last 10 runnings of this at York, and also the rescheduled running at Newmarket in 2008.


Saeed Bin Suroor (2-0-8) has also won the race twice since 2000.


Henry Cecil (0-1-1) trained the first and third in 1999, saddled the runner-up at the rescheduled running at Newmarket and also saddled the


runner-up in 2010.


2 of the 4 French-trained runners since 2000 have been placed though there has been no French-trained winner since 1987.



Price
9 of 10 winners went off shorter than 5/1
The highest price winner of this in the last 10 years was Notnowcato in 2006 at 8/1.
Favourites (6-1-10) have won 6 of the last 10 at York and show a level stakes profit of 3.66 since 2000.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 or 5
· Run at least twice this season
· Won or placed last time, posting an RPR of 117+
· Won over 1M 2F+
· Won a group 1
· Finished in the first 2 in the Eclipse Stakes
· Ran in the Prince of Wales and/or the King George
· Trained by A O’Brien, S Bin Suroor or H Cecil
· Price 9/2 or shorter