The Group 2 Betfair Celebration Mile at Goodwood on Saturday, 27th August, is the big race in Britain this coming weekend. Run over a mile


for 3yos and upwards, it has been won by some top class horses in the past including Raven’s Pass in 2008, who went on to win the Breeders


Cup Classic. Last year Poet’s Voice tasted success in the race and he is entered again this year.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 4-4-22
4yo: 1-4-19
5yo: 4-1-12
6yo+: 1-2-11
5yos have a super record in the race having won 4 of the last 10 runnings from just 11 of the 66 runners (16.7%).
3yos have taken 4 of the last 10 renewals, including the last 3. 3 of the 4 winners aged 3 had run in the St James Palace Stakes and all 4


winning 3yos had finished in first 5 in a major 2yo race (2 Dewhurst, 1 Middle Park & 1 Royal Lodge)

Gender
Fillies and mares (3-0-6) receive a 3lb allowance and 3 of the 6 to run in the race have been successful, though all 3 female winners were


trained by Michael Stoute with Chic accounting for 2 of the wins.

Weight
Horses carrying a group 1 penalty (6lbs): 43 (0-0-2)
Horses carrying a group 2 penalty (3lbs): 66533652 (0-2-8)
All 10 runners to carry a penalty since 2001 have been beaten.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time (2 of 3 exceptions were unplaced in a group 1)
10 of 10 winners had won over 7F or further
8 of 10 winner had won a group 2 or 3 (1 exception had won 3 listed races and other was runner-up in Queen Anne)
0 of 10 winners had won a group 1
7 of 10 winners had finished in first 5 in a group 1 (2 of 3 exceptions had not run in a group 1)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Poet's Voice): 31 (1-0-2)
Hungerford Stakes winner (Excelebration): 31 (1-0-2)
Pomfret Stakes winner (Emerald Commander): 3 (0-1-1)
Paradise Stakes winner (Side Glance): 2 (0-1-1)
Jersey Stakes winner (Strong Suit): 2 (0-1-1)
Summer Mile winner (Dick Turpin): 32 (0-1-2)
House Stakes winner (Set The Trend): 334 (0-1-3)
Sovereign Stakes winner (Side Glance): 7265 (0-1-4)
Spring Trophy Stakes winner (Beacon Lodge): 334 (0-0-3)
Sandown Mile winner (Dick Turpin): 636 (0-0-3)
Diomed Stakes winner (Fanunalter): 575 (0-0-3)
3 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in St James Palace Stakes, finishing 522
3 of 10 winners ran in the Sussex Stakes last time, finishing 202
2 of 10 winners ran in the Hungerford Stakes last time, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in Sovereign Stakes, finishing 22
2 of 10 winners ran in the Windsor Forrest, finishing 75
2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 42
2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Craven, finishing 21

Trainers
Michael Stoute (4-1-9) has a super record in this race having won 4 of the last 10 runnings from just 9 runners. He has trained all 3


female winners of the race.
Saeed Bin Suroor (3-1-7) saddled the winner in ’99, 06, ’09 and last year (later disqualified).
Richard Hannon (0-2-10) has found a couple of places from his 10 runners while all 3 of Aidan O’Brien’s (0-0-3) runners were unplaced.

Price
9 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
The longest priced winner in the past 10 years has been 10/1 though favourites do not have a great record.
Favourites (3-2-10) have just 3 of the last 10, which is a particularly poor record when you consider that 8 of the 10 favourites were sent


off 5/4 or shorter. Backing the favourites would have resulted in a level stakes loss of 5.11.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· 3yo who finished in first 5 in St James Palace or aged 5
· Filly/mare aged 4+ trained by Michael Stoute
· Carrying no penalty
· Finished in the first 3 last time out
· Won over 7 furlongs or further
· Previously won a group 2 or 3 (or multiple listed races)
· Finished in first 5 in a group 1
· Ran in Sussex, Hungerford or Sovereign Stakes last time
· Trained by Michael Stoute or Saeed Bin Suroor
· From first 4 in the betting