ST LEGER TRENDS 2011

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The Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes, which takes place at Doncaster on Saturday 10th September, is the final Classic of the season. In recent years the two races that have supplied the majority of the winners have been the Great Voltigeur and the Gordon Stakes, 9 of the last 10 winners ran in one or the other on their previous start.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age
Race for 3yos.

Genders
Fillies (0-3-7) have gained 3 places from 7 runners (2 of 3 placed finishers had won a group 1 & other was an unbeaten group winner)

Breeding
8 of 10 winners were by a sire with stamina index of 10.9F to 11.6F
8 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that finished in first 2 in the Epsom or French Derby’s
5 of 10 winners were by Sadler’s Wells or by a son of Sadler’s Wells or out of a Sadler’s Wells mare
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) were out of a mare by Diesis

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had run 4 or 5 times that season
6 of 10 winners won last time out
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
10 of 10 winners ran in the past 60 days
10 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR on last 2 runs (8 last time)
10 of 10 winners won their maiden over 7F+
8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 3F to 1M 4F (both exceptions placed in the Voltigeur)
8 of 10 winner had won a group race (2 exceptions were 2nd in a group 2)

Other Races
Great Voltigeur winner (Sea Moon): 1315136 (3-2-7)
Gordon Stakes winner (Namibian): 334211 (2-3-6)
Bahrain Trophy winner (Masked Marvel): 23 (0-2-2)
Yorkshire Oaks winner (Blue Bunting): 2 (0-1-1)
Geoffrey Freer Stakes winner (Census): 3 (0-1-1)
Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Dordogne): 340 (0-1-3)
Queen's Vase winner (Namibian): 742 (0-1-3)
Irish Oaks winner (Blue Bunting): 4 (0-0-1)
King George V Stakes winner (Brown Panther): 08 (0-0-2)
Cocked Hat Stakes winner (Masked Marvel): 06 (0-0-2)
Highest placed finisher from King Edward VII: 162231141 (4-3-9)
Highest placed finisher from Voltigeur: 1311531036 (4-3-10)
Highest placed finisher from Gordon Stakes: 233421018 (2-4-9)
6 of 10 winners ran in Great Voltigeur last time, finishing 132112
3 of 10 winners ran in Gordon Stakes last time, finishing 113
6 of 10 winners ran in King Edward VII, finishing 423222
4 of 10 winners ran in the Derby, finishing 0274
3 of 10 winners ran in Irish Derby, finishing 442
2 of 10 winners ran in French Derby, finishing 50
2 of 10 winners ran in Grand Prix de Paris, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dante, finishing 22

Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (3-4-26) has won 3 of the last 10 renewals but saddled a whopping 26 runners (over a quarter of the total runners). His first string has a record of 3-3-10.
John Gosden (2-0-3) has won 2 of the last 4 runnings.
Michael Stoute (1-2-12) finally gained his first win in this race in 2008 with Conduit.
Mark Johnston (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners make the places.

Price
No strong trends on prices, the last 2 winners have gone off 12/1 & 14/1 but they have been the only 2 winners priced above 8/1 in past 15 years.
Favourites (5-4-11) have won 5 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 1.16.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· By a sire with stamina index of 10.9F to 11.6F
· Related to Sadler’s Wells or Diesis
· Sire finished in first 2 in Epsom/French Derby
· Run 4 or 5 times this season
· Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won)
· Posted a career high RPR in last 2 outings
· Ran in past 60 days
· Won a group race over 1M 3F to 1M 4F
· Finished in first 3 in Great Voltigeur or Gordon Stakes last time
· Finished in first 4 in King Edward VII or Irish Derby
· Trained by Aidan O’Brien or John Gosden