PORTLAND HANDICAP TRENDS 2011

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The Ladbrokes Portland is the big handicap on the Saturday card of the Leger meeting at Doncaster. Run over 5F 140 yards it is always an enthralling cavalry charge that has thrown up some memorable finishes in the past decade.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-4-34
4yo: 2-11-53
5yo: 4-5-43
6yo: 0-6-35
7yo+: 4-6-49
Older horses hold a marginal advantage with those aged 7+ winning 4 of the last 9.
Since 2001 there have been 34 runners aged 3, all have been beaten with only 4 making the frame.

Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-5-43
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 5-14-94
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 4-11-82
Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 0-0-5
9 of 10 winners (last 6) carried between 8-12 and 9-6.
Top Weight: 530969206407 (0-3-12)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 101 or more: 0-5-33
Horses rated 91 to 100: 10-18-139
Horses rated 90 or less: 0-7-42
10 of 10 winners were officially rated between 91 and 100

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that year
6 of 10 winners won or placed last time out (all 4 exceptions were unplaced in Great St Wilfrid)
10 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or better last time out
10 of 10 winners had run in past 35 days
10 of 10 winners had won a race with 14+ runners in it
9 of 10 winners had won over 5F (exception hadn't run over 5F)
9 of 10 winners had won over 6F
8 of 9 winners trained in Britain had won at class 2 level or above (exception had won a class 3 & finished 2nd in a class 2) (Irish trained winner had won a 60-100 handicap)
9 of 10 winners had won a race worth 13K+
5 of 10 winners had contested a group race
8 of 10 winners had last start at Ripon, Goodwood or Sandown

Other Races
Gosford Park Cup winner (Ancient Cross): 1000 (1-0-4)
James Taylor Group Handicap winner (Kanaf): 4 (0-1-1)
Stellar Group handicap winner (Doctor Parkes): 0307 (0-1-4)
Shegar Cup Dash winner (Dungannon): 70 (0-0-2)
tyregiant.com Stakes winner (York Glory): 00 (0-0-2)
Scottish Sprint Cup winner (Burning Thread): 00 (0-0-2)
Betfred Be Friendly Handicap winner (Zero Money): 689 (0-0-3)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Great St Wilfrid, finishing 869008
5 of 10 winners ran in the Stewards Cup, finishing 02065 (1 ran in Stewards Sprint, finishing 1st)
4 of 10 winners ran in Al Rayan H'cap at Newmarket, finishing 8006
3 of 10 winners ran in Bank Holiday Stakes (Handicap), finishing 131
3 of 10 winners ran in the Scottish Stewards Cup, finishing 484
3 of 10 winners ran in the Epsom Dash, finishing 964
2 of 10 winners ran in the Northern Sprint Cup, finishing 08
2 of 10 winners ran in the Rockingham handicap, finishing 55
2 of 10 winners ran in the Skybet Dash, finishing 80
2 of 10 winners ran in the Gosford Sprint Cup, finishing 51

Trainers
Kevin Ryan (3-4-20) won the race with Halmahera in 02, 03 & 04 and he also saddled the 2nd and 4th in each of the last 2 renewals.
Clive Cox (1-1-5), David Marnane (1-0-1), Tim Etherington (1-0-3) and David Barron (1-0-3) have all trained the winner once in the past 10 years.
Willie Muir (0-2-2) saddled Texas Gold to be placed in the race twice while Michael Jarvis (0-2-2) has had 2 different runners in this since 2000, both placed.
Dandy Nicholls (0-2-27) has a poor record in the race having found just 2 places from 27 representatives.

Racing Style
8 of 10 winners (last 7) were held up in midfield or rear
The race is usually run at a fierce gallop and horses that are played late often do best.

Draw (excluding 2006 when run at York)
Horses drawn 1 to 7: 2-7-63
Horses drawn 8 to 14: 2-11-63
Horses drawn 15 or higher: 5-9-69
Horses drawn 15 or higher have won 5 of last 9 runnings at Doncaster.

Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 11/1 and 20/1
Favourites (2-1-11) have a fair record in this race having won 2 of the last 10 (including last year) and giving a level stakes profit of 2.00.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
Aged 4 or older
Carrying 8-12 to 9-6
Officially rated 91 to 100
Run at least 4 times in 2011
Won or placed last time (or unplaced in Great St Wilfrid)
Ran in last 35 days in a class 3 or better
Won at class 2 level or higher
Won over 5F and 6F 7
Won a handicap with 14+ runners
Ran in the Great St Wilfrid and/or Stewards Cup/Sprint
Drawn in 15 or higher is favourable
Hold-up horses favoured
Trained by Kevin Ryan
Priced between 11/1 and 20/1