CHAMPION STAKES TRENDS 2011
The Qipco Champion Stakes will be one of two group 1’s taking place at Ascot on Saturday 15th October in the inaugural Champions’ Day.
Previously run at Newmarket, the race has been won by Twice Over for the past 2 years and he looks likely to have stiff competition in his bid to become the first horse to win the race three times.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age
3yo: 5-7-49
4yo: 3-6-42
5yo+: 2-7-25
There’s not a huge amount to go on from the age.
8 of the 10 winners were aged 3 or 4 with the two older winners having finished in the first 2 in the previous year’s race.
Gender
Fillies and mares (1-3-13) have gained 1 win in the past 10 years from approximately 11.2% of the total. However it has been the older
brigade that have done better with 4yo+ (1-2-8) accounting for the win and 2 of 3 places and the 3yo fillies (0-1-5) gaining just 1 place
from 5 runners.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had won a class 1 race that season
6 of 10 winners finished won last time out (3 of 4 exceptions were 2nd or 3rd in a group 1)
9 of 10 winners ran at Goodwood, Leopardstown, Longchamp or Ascot on their previous start
9 of 10 winners won over 1M 2F (exception yet to run over 1M 2F)
8 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 a group 1
9 of 10 winners had run 4 to 6 times that season
5 of 5 winners aged 3 had won a group or listed race as a 2yo
Other races
Previous season's winner (Twice Over): 1 (1-0-1)
Irish Champion Stakes winner (So You Think): 341 (1-1-3)
Prix Du Prince D'Orange winner (Casamento): 1 (1-0-1)
Eclipse winner (So You Think): 5461 (1-0-4)
Previous season's Beresford winner (Casamento): 632 (0-2-3)
Huxley Stakes winner (Await The Dawn): 36003 (0-2-5)
Royal Whip Stakes winner (Banimpire): 52 (0-1-2)
Tatts Gold Cup winner (So You Think): 36 (0-1-2)
Hong Kong Cup winner (Snow Fairy): 82 (0-1-2)
Hardwicke Stakes winner (Await The Dawn): 3760 (0-1-4)
Juddmonte International winner (Twice Over): 8 (0-0-1)
Nassau Stakes winner (Midday): 58 (0-0-2)
Celebration Mile winner (Dick Turpin: 079 (0-0-3)
Earl Of Sefton Stakes winner (Ransom Note): 688 (0-0-3)
Joel Stakes winner (Ransom Note): 004 (0-0-3)
King George winner (Nathaniel): 676 (0-0-3)
4 of 4 British-trained 3yo winners ran in 2000 Guineas, finishing 8102
3 of 5 winners aged 4+ ran in Prince Of Wales Stakes, finishing 242
3 of 5 winners aged 4+ ran in previous year’s race, finishing 221
2 of 10 winners ran in the Juddmonte International, finishing 32
2 of 10 winners ran in the Eclipse, finishing 71
2 of 10 winners ran in the Select Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Rose Of Lancaster, finishing 12
2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Craven Stakes, finishing 31
2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Dewhurt, finishing 31
2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Sussex Stakes, finishing 97
Trainers
Henry Cecil (2-1-5) has trained Twice Over to finish 2nd-1st-1st in last 3 renewals of this race.
Alain Royal-Dupre (1-1-3) saddled Pride to finish 2nd & 1st in consecutive years. Jim Bolger (1-0-2) is the only other trainer with an
entrant to have sent out the winner of this since 2001.
Surprisingly, Saeed Bin Suroor (0-3-14), John Gosden (0-1-6) and Aidan O’Brien (0-1-11) have all failed to ever train the winner of this
race.
French–based trainers (2-4-15) have done well, gaining 2 wins and 4 places from approximately 13% of the total runners.
Price
Not a strong trends race on prices with winners varying from 6/5 to 25/1.
Favourites (2-3-10) have a poor record having won just 2 of the last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 3.80.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
3yo that won a class 1 race as a 2yo & ran in 2000 Guineas
Aged 4+ that placed in 2010 Champions Stakes and/or Prince Of Wales
Has run 4 to 6 times in 2011
Won last time out (or 2nd/3rd in a group 1)
Won over 1M 2F
Finished in the first 2 in a group 1
Trained in France or by Henry Cecil
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