NOVEMBER HANDICAP TRENDS 2011

[ganjaman2]

The Betfred November Handicap takes place at Doncaster on Saturday, 5th November. It is a class 2 handicap open to 3yos and older, run over 1M 4F. It usually marks the end of the flat season in Great Britain.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 4-9-52
4yo: 5-12-83
5yo: 1-6-43
6yo+: 0-3-45
3 & 4 year olds have a combined record of 9-21-135
Horses aged 5 or older have a combined record of 1-9-88

Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 0-3-17
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-5-38
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 4-8-74
Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 2-7-70
Horses carrying 7-7 to 7-13: 1-7-24
No very strong trends here but in recent years higher weights have done better with 7 of the last 8 winners, including last 5, carrying 8-10 or more.
Top Weight: 000660057090 (0-0-12)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 100 or more: 0-5-23
Horses rated 89 to 99: 8-13-110
Horses rated 88 or less: 2-12-90
The last 8 winners of this race have been officially rated 89 to 99.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had run 4 to 7 times that year
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on their last start
7 of 10 winners won 1 of last 3 starts (3 exceptions were 2nd or 3rd last time out)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted highest RPR in 1 of last 2 starts
8 of 10 winners had their last run between 14 and 42 days ago
7 of 10 winners (last 4) had last run at Doncaster or Newmarket
7 of 10 winners had run in 11 or fewer handicaps
9 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 handicaps (exception had won 4)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had won a class 2 or 3 handicap
9 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or 3 handicap last time out
8 of 10 winners had contest a class 2 handicap but no higher (1 exception ran in a listed race & other ran in class 3 as highest level)

Other Races
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cambridgeshire, finishing 00
2 of 10 winners ran in Dubai Duty Free Handicap, finishing 85
2 of 10 winners ran in Caravan Chairman's Charity Cup, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in Newmarket 32Red Handicap, finishing 91

Trainers
Brian Ellison (1-1-12) trained the winner in 2000 & 2004 and saddled a 40/1 shot to be 3rd in 2008.
Ralph Beckett (1-0-3), John Gosden (1-0-4) and John Dunlop (1-0-3) are the only other 3 trainers with entrants that have won the race in past 10 years.
Tim Easterby (0-2-4), Amanda Perrett (0-2-7) and Mark Johnston (0-2-8) have each saddled a couple of horses to be placed and James Fanshawe’s (0-1-1) only runner in the past decade was 3rd in 2002.

Draw (excludes 2006, when race run at Windsor)
Horses drawn 1 to 8: 3-14-72
Horses drawn 9 to 16: 3-6-72
Horses drawn 17 or higher: 3-7-59
No strong bias on the draw

Price
No strong trends based on prices for this race.
This is a terrible race for favourites (0-2-12) with no winner in the last 10 years and only 2 of 12 making the frame.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
Aged 3 or 4
Officially rated 89 to 99
Carrying 8-10+
Run 4 to 7 times in 2011
Finished in first 4 in a class 2 or 3 h’cap last time out
Had latest start at Doncaster or Newmarket
Finished 1st or 2nd & posted highest RPR in 1 of last 2 starts
Run in 11 or fewer handicaps (winning 1 to 3)
Won a class 2 or 3 handicap
Won over 1M 2F+

[ganjaman2]

Decs for this

1 (12) 032200 Montaff 77 5 9-10 Mick Channon65 Sam Hitchcott 104
2 (3) 2d10605 Harlestone Times 57 4 9-5 John Dunlop63 Ted Durcan 99
3 (11) 111222 Kiama Bay 56 5 9-5 John Quinn33 S H James5 99 91 115
4 (21) 14009 The Betchworth Kid 35 6 9-4 Alan King100 Lucy K Barry5 98
5 (5) 1110-4 Willing Foe 14 4 9-4 Saeed Bin Suroor75 Ian Mongan 98
6 (10) 1/1808 Burj Nahar 58 t 4 9-3 Saeed Bin Suroor75 Richard Hills 97
7 (23) 8-1867 Tepmokea 20 5 9-1 Richard Fahey55 Paul Hanagan 95 103
8 (13) 177601 Classic Vintage 55 b 5 9-1 Amanda Perrett67 Jim Crowley 95
9 (8) 006579 Resurge 14 6 9-1 Stuart Kittow57 Fergus Sweeney 95 108 113
10 (16) 50980 Merchant Of Dubai 49 6 8-13 Jim Goldie35 Daniel Tudhope 93
11 (14) 1-106 Pekan Star 91 4 8-13 Roger Varian56 Andrea Atzeni 93
12 (9) 347151 Demolition 24 7 8-13 Noel Wilson33 Gary Bartley3 93
13 (18) 361407 Ile De Re 30 5 8-13 Ian Williams20 Martin Lane 93 91 114
14 (20) 434236 Zuider Zee 51 4 8-13 John Gosden62 Robert Havlin 93
15 (7) 315004 Itlaaq 35 t 5 8-12 Michael Easterby30 Graham Gibbons 92
16 (19) 010019 Crackentorp 63 6 8-12 Tim Easterby42 David Allan 92
17 (22) 9120-7 Hanoverian Baron 176 6 8-11 Tony Newcombe67 David Probert
18 (1) 004617 Oceanway 14 3 8-11 Mark Johnston45 Silvestre De Sousa 97
19 (17) 569/43 Enroller 55 6 8-11 William Muir54 Steve Drowne 91 73 98
20 (2) 54112 Scrapper Smith 7 5 8-10 Alistair Whillans63 Dale Swift3 90
21 (4) 58013 Status Symbol 42 t 6 8-10 Giles Bravery Eddie Ahern 90
22 (6) 35818 Bramalea 44 6 8-10 Hughie Morrison50 90 109 114
23 (15) 44-151 Samsons Son 45 7 8-10 Alan King100 Jimmy Fortune 90