MORGIANA HURDLE TRENDS 2011

[ganjaman2]

The Ladbrokes.com Morgiana Hurdle is a 2 mile grade 1 hurdle that takes place at Punchestown on Sunday 20th November. It has been won by some of the best Irish hurdlers in the past 10 years including Limestone Lad, Brace Inca, Hardy Eustace and Solwhit. This year’s race looks likely to see the return of Champion Hurdle winner Hurricane Fly.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-2
5yo: 3-2-11
6yo: 2-3-15
7yo: 2-1-16
8yo: 0-0-3
9yo+: 3-0-5
No very strong trends looking at the ages. Horses aged 9+ appear to have a very strong record but 2 of those 3 wins were gained by Limestone Lad who won the race 3 times.
All 5 winners aged 5 or 6 had either won the Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle or finished in the first 4 in the Punchestown Champion hurdle.

Gender
Record of mares: 526322 (0-1-6)
The 6 mares to run in the race went off at prices of 25/1, 2/1, 66/1, 5/1, 7/2 & 5/2.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (both exceptions unplaced in a grade 1 over 2m4f-3m)
10 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race over 2 miles
9 of 10 winners (last 6) had won a grade 1 hurdle
9 of 10 winners had previously won at the track (exception was 2nd in a novice hurdle and 3rd in a grade 1 hurdle on 2 starts here)
5 of 10 winners had won at that year's Punchestown Festival
5 of 10 winners (5 of last 6) were making seasonal debut

Other Races
Previous Hatton's Grace winner (Hurricane Fly): 11 (2-0-2)
Boyne Hurdle winner (Voler La Vedette): 1 (1-0-1)
Lismullen Hurdle winner (Voler La Vedette): 1 (1-0-1)
Leopardstown Festival Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 531 (1-0-3)
Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 5321 (1-0-4)
Navan Novice Hurdle winner (Oscars Well): 3 (0-1-1)
Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner (Oscars Well): 3 (0-1-1)
Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 3 (0-0-1)
4 of 10 winners ran in Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 2521
3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle, finishing F91
3 of 10 winners ran in Leopardstown Festival Hurdle, finishing 221
5 of 10 winners ran at that year's Cheltenham Festival (2 Champion Hurdle, 1 World Hurdle, 1 Supreme & 1 County Hurdle)

Punchestown Festival
Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 11 (2-0-2)
Record of horses who won/placed in Champion Hurdle: 131311 (4-0-6)
5 of 10 winners ran in Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 24112
2 of 10 winners ran in Punchestown Champion Nov' Hurdle finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in Stayers’ Hurdle, finishing 31

Trainers
Noel Meade (3-0-8) has won the race 3 times in the last 7 years.
Charles Byrnes (2-0-2) has won the race with Solwhit for past 2 years.
Dessie Hughes (1-0-1) and Colm Murphy (1-0-3) have both saddled the winner once since 2001.
Willie Mullins (0-0-2) and Jessica Harrington (0-0-4) have failed to saddled a runner in the frame in past 10 years.

Price
8 of 10 winners were priced 9/2 or lower
Hardy Eustace 14/1 (08) and Harchibald 10/1 (04) were the two surprise results.
Favourites (4-1-10) have won 4 renewals in the past 10 years but show a level stakes loss of 2.12.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
Gelding
Finished in the first 3 last time out
Won a 2M grade 1 hurdle
Course winner
Finished in first 3 in Irish Champion or Festival Hurdle
Ran at the 2011 Punchestown Festival
First 4 in Punchestown Champion Novice or Champion Hd’l
Trained by Noel Meade or Charles Byrnes
From first 3 in the betting

[ganjaman2]

I'd say Hurricane Fly will be very short for this


270263 Akatara 22 4 11-0 Michael J Bowe — 114 128
6111-4 Canaly 22 6 11-10 D T Hughes — 111 146
1111-1 Hurricane Fly 198 7 11-10 W P Mullins — 153 177
1114-3 Oscars Well 16 6 11-10 Mrs John Harrington — 147 157
30/1-1 Pittoni 35 5 11-10 C Byrnes — 119 158
113-6 So Young 198 5 11-10 W P Mullins — 117 152
42-221 Thousand Stars 155 7 11-10 W P Mullins — 145 169
112-41 Unaccompanied 8 4 11-0 D K Weld — 142 159
41-141 Voler La Vedette 7 7 11-3 C A Murphy — 111 165