FIGHTING FIFTH HURDLE TRENDS 2011

[ganjaman2]

The StanJames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle takes place at Newcastle on Saturday 26th November. Punjabi won this in 2008 before going on to win the Champion Hurdle and last year, Peddlers Cross won it before finishing a fine 2nd in the Cheltenham hurdling showpiece.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-1-5
5yo: 6-4-17
6yo: 2-2-17
7yo: 0-2-12
8yo: 1-3-10
9yo: 1-1-5
10yo+: 0-2-5
5yos have a very strong record in this race having won 6 of the last 10 runnings of this race (in 2 of the other 4 years they did not have a representative).

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 runners finished in the first 2 last time out
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle (exception The French Furze had finished 2nd in previous 3 renewals)
7 of 10 winners had previously run in 4 to 11 hurdles
8 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season hurdlers
5 of 5 season hurdler winners had won a class 1 hurdle at Aintree or Cheltenham Festivals that year
7 of 10 winners (last 5) were officially rated 150+ over hurdles
7 of 10 winners finished in first 5 in a graded hurdle at Cheltenham Festival (3 exceptions missed Cheltenham that year)
5 of last 7 winners contested a 2M grade 1 at that year’s Punchestown Festival (other 2 had won a grade 1 novice hurdle at Cheltenham)

Other Races
Highest placed finisher from last year: 221524P23 (1-4-9)
Top Novices Hurdle winner (Topolski): 316 (1-1-3)
Scottish Champion Hurdle winner (Sanctuaire): 52 (0-1-2)
Elite Hurdle winner (Celestial Halo): 6265 (0-1-4)
Christmas Hurdle winner (Binocular): 34 (0-0-2)
Contenders Hurdle winner (Binocular): 43 (0-0-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, finishing 121
3 of 10 winners ran in Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 451
3 of 10 winners ran in the Tipperary Hurdle, finishing 131
2 of 10 winners ran in the Totesport Trophy, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in Punchestown Champ Nov' Hdl, finishing 24

Trainers
Nicky Henderson (2-1-5) has saddled 2 winners and a second from 5 runners in this race (Binocular in last 2 years has been his two unplaced finishers).
Donald McCain (1-0-1) won the race last year with Peddlers Cross.
Paul Nicholls (0-0-3) has seen all 3 of his runners finish out of the frame, none have finisher better than 6th.

Price
6 of 10 winners were sent off favourite
This is a good race for the favourite (6-3-11) who shows a level stakes profit of 2.15. Binocular in the past 2 renewals has been the only unplaced favourite in the race in the past 15 years.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 5
• Finished in the first 2 last time out
• Previously won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
• Second or third season hurdler
• Officially rated 150+
• Finished in first 5 in a grade 1 at Punchestown Festival or
• Won at Cheltenham Festival
• Trained by Nicky Henderson or Donald McCain
• Sent off favourite