DRINMORE NOVICE CHASE TRENDS 2011

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The Drinmore Novice Chase takes the place at Fairyhouse on Sunday 28th November as part of a top quality national hunt card featuring 3 grade 1’s. It is the first grade 1 novice chase of the season and always offers clues to the big novice chases at Leopardstown over Christmas.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-0-7
6yo: 6-8-38
7yo: 2-5-23
8yo: 1-2-7
9yo+: 0-1-4
Horses aged 6 or 7 have won 8 of last 10, including the last 5.
Since the inaugural running in 1994, only 2 of the 16 winners were not aged 6 or 7 and both had previously finished 2nd in a grade 1 hurdle.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners won last time out
8 of 10 winners had last start at Galway, Navan or Punchestown

10 of 10 winners had run since 23rd October
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR over fences last time out
9 of 10 winners had never finished outside the first 3 on a completed chase start
10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season
8 of 10 winners had run in 1 or 2 chases prior to this (two exceptions had run in 3 and 4)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
7 of 10 winners had won at graded level (all 3 exceptions had finish 2nd or 3rd in a graded hurdle or chase)
8 of 10 winners had run in no more than 7 hurdles
6 of 10 winners had won or placed at Fairyhouse (other 4 were having first course start)

Other Races
W.B.Gavin Beginners Chase winner (Last Instalment): 1P321 (2-2-5)
Florida Pearl Novice Chase winner (Last Instalment): 2421 (1-2-4)
ChristmaS at Punchestown Beg Chase winner (Cross Appeal): 1 (1-0-1)
Buck House Novice Chase winner (Lucky William): 1 (1-0-1)
Navan EBF Beginners Chase winner (Bog Warrior): 1P (1-0-2)
Cork 2M 4F Dial-a-Bet Nov Chase winner (First Lieutenant): 815 (1-0-3)
Like A Butterfly Novice Chase winner (First Lieutenant): 2UP (0-1-3)
4 of 10 winners had won a 2M 4F Punchestown chase in Oct/Nov
3 of 10 winners ran in a 2M 4F-6F Cork chase in Oct/Nov, finishing F11
3 of 10 winners ran in that year's Deloitte Novice Hurdle, finishing 361
3 of 10 winners ran in Cathal Ryan Champ Nov Hurdle, finishing 473
2 of 10 winners ran in W.B.Gavin Beginners Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in G1 Punchestown Stayers’ Hurdle, finishing 77
6 of 10 winners had run in a grade 1 hurdle at the previous Punchestown Festival

Trainers
Noel Meade (3-3-11) has won the race 3 times and seen over half of his 11 runners make the frame in the last 10 years.
Paul Nolan (1-1-3) is the only other trainer with an entry this year to have won the race since 2001.
Dessie Hughes (0-2-3) has seen all 3 of his runners in the past decade finish in the first 3. Willie Mullins (0-1-7) has only saddled 1 placed finisher from 8 runners since 2001 though Mikael D’Haguenet may have won it for him last season but for a final fence fall.

Price
9 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting
No winner has gone off higher than 6/1 in the last 10 years.
The favourite (5-0-11) has won 5 of last 10 and shows a level stakes profit of 2.05.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 6 or 7
• Had last run after 23/10/11
• Won last time out (ideally at Navan, Galway or Punchestown)
• Previously run in 1 or 2 chases
• Never finished outside the first 2 in a chase (when completing)
• Won a chase at Cork or Punchestown
• Won over at least 2M 4F
• Won a graded race over hurdles
• Won or placed at Fairyhouse (or having first course start)
• Ran in the Deloitte or Cathal Ryan Memorial Nov Hurdle in 2011
• Ran in a grade 1 hurdle at the 2011 Punchestown Festival
• Trained by Noel Meade, Paul Nolan or Dessie Hughes
• From the first 2 in the betting (no bigger than 6/1)