The Paddypower.com Future Champions Novice Hurdle is one of two grade 1 races that takes place at Leopardstown on the second day of the Christmas Festival (December 27th). It has been won by some top class hurdlers in the past decade, including Solerina and Hurricane Fly, and whatever wins will come into the reckoning for one of the novice hurdles at Cheltenham.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 6-4-23
5yo: 4-7-27
6yo: 0-1-11
7yo: 0-0-2
All 10 winners were aged 4 or 5 but 4yos (who receive a 3lb allowance) hold the edge, having won 6 of the last 10 from approximately 36.5% of total runners.
2 of 4 winners aged 5 were mares, who also receive a weight allowance.

Gender
Mares (2-0-5) have won this race twice in the past 10 years from just 5 runners. Both winning mares were aged 5 and had previously won a listed or graded hurdle.

Recent/Past Form
5 of 10 winners won last time out (4 others finished 2nd or 3rd in Royal Bond)
10 of 10 winners had won over hurdles
8 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times over hurdles (other 2 won only hurdles run)
7 of 10 winners had never finished outside the first 3 over hurdles
7 of 10 winners had won over 2m2f or further
7 of 10 winners had won a bumper (other 3 had run in listed/group company on flat)
8 of 10 winners had run in the past 30 days

Other Races
Royal Bond Novice Hurdle winner (Sous Les Cieux): 212 (1-2-3)
Record of horses who finished in first 3 in the Royal Bond: 1215153171642 (5-3-13)
New Tote Sports Lounge Maiden Hurdle winner (Dylan Ross): 2 (0-1-1)
Buy Your 2012 Annual Badge Maiden Hurdle winner (Il Fenomeno): 6 (0-0-1)
I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle winner (Formidableopponent): 3 (0-0-1)
For Auction Novice Hurdle winner (Il Fenomeno): F3 (0-0-2)
Follow Gowran Park On Facebook 4yo Novice Hurdle winner (Cash And Go): 684 (0-0-3)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Royal Bond last time, finishing 22331
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper, finishing 40

Trainers
Noel Meade (2-1-12) has gained 2 wins and a second in the past 6 renewals.
Eddie O’Grady (1-2-6) has gained 2 wins and 2 seconds from 7 runners since 2000. Judge Roy Bean in 07 & 09, accounted for 2 unplaced efforts while his runner last year, Hidden Cyclone, was a very close 3rd.
Willie Mullins (1-2-3) has only saddled 3 runners in this race in the past decade, winner in 2008, third in 2009 and the runner-up last year.

Price
7 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting however 3 of the last 4 winners have been priced between 16/1 and 25/1.
The favourite (2-3-11) have a poor record in this, having won just 2 of the last 10 renewals and show a level stakes loss of 6.56.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
  • Gelding aged 4 or mare aged 5
  • Won last time out or finished in the first 3 in Royal Bond
  • Had run 2 to 5 times over hurdles (or unbeaten)
  • Never finished outside the first 3 over hurdles
  • Won over 2M 2F+
  • Won a bumper or ran in group/listed race on flat
  • Trained by Eddie O’Grady, Noel Meade or Willie Mullins