cheltenham 2012-discussion thread and festival fancies

[ganjaman2]

over the next couple of weeks i will be putting up trends for all the races at this years cheltenham festival,and i will be putting up selections that i have backed anti-post,so if you have any fancies then please put them up and hopefully we can back some winners

[ganjaman2]

right as i have stated im going to put up some anti-post bets for cheltenham that i fancy so heres my first anti-post bet




Tuesday 13th March, Day One:


SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE - STEPS TO FREEDOM 10/1


Betting - 10/1 Steps To Freedom, Waaheb, 14/1 Simonsig, 16/1 Cash And Go, Colour Squadron, Galileo's Choice, Captain Conan, Oscar Nominee, 20/1 Cinders And Ashes, Darlan, Montbazon, Tetlami, Distant Memories, 25/1 Bar.


A wide open affair, as the betting suggests. I have a quote from Tom Segal stuck in my head every time I look at the form of this race: "A horse capable of winning the Supreme Novice would be able to give a good account of their self in the Champion hurdle". I don't think many of these would run all that well in the Champion Hurdle.


I don't think anything bigger than 20/1 has much of a chance - This includes Dylan Ross, Prospect Wells, All The Aces, Molotof and Allure Of Illusion - This is because I don't feel their form is strong enough to compete unless they improve dramatically between now and March. I feel Prospect Wells' proximity to Steps To Freedom was due to the lack of pace in the race, rather than their respective ability. Molotof beat one of the form horses of the season in Charlie Longsdon's Hazy Tom, last time out. But Hazy Tom was clearly lacking in speed and I think the Longsdon horse needs a break after his 4th run this season, already. I wouldn't take the form of the Grade 2 Molotof won too literally.


Simon Claisse, Clerk of the course at Cheltenham, has the ability to get the ground perfect for Cheltenham and it is more likely than not that the ground will be good, good to soft in places come March. This may hinder some of the horse such as Distant Memories, Captain Conan and Tetlami - Distant Memories has 6 flat wins to his name, twice a winner on good ground, but he has shown his best form with plenty of cut in the ground, including a Group 3 win. He has ran once over hurdles so far, impressive in winning a Limerick maiden - he made a couple of mistakes at the last few flights when they quickened, therefore I would also be worried about his jumping ability at speed.


Tetlami is a major player if the ground does turn up softer than good. He has a record of 4 wins from 6 starts and he is 2/2 over hurdles so far. Both of his defeats came on officially good ground in bumpers. He was most impressive when winning a soft ground bumper at Cheltenham, course experience which will stand him in good stead. His run at Kempton last time he ran as if 2 miles on the flat track was too sharp for him, staying on really strong late on - Coming back to Cheltenham will suit him well.


Captain Conan has had all of his runs on soft ground. He is from a family of soft ground winners, too. After winning a Grade 1 on his British debut Barry Geraghty said he was green throughout and he still had a fair amount of improvement in him - If that improvement comes to the surface he could be a major player, but he needs to prove he handles better ground and I think there could be one or two speedier types that will have too much for him. The jockey bookings from the Nicky Henderson stable are likely to point us in the direction of their most fancied. I would have to rule out Colour Squadron on a line through Captain Conan - I was extremely worried by the way he hung left when looking in control last time, going left handed at Cheltenham will help his cause, but if the aforementioned improve comes from Captain Conan I would expect him to hold Colour Squadron anyway.


I am of the opinion that the form of Cash And Go is weaker than needed. He beat a highly regarded Sous Les Cieux last time, but that was over 2 miles - A trip that was too short for the Mullins hotpot. On the form line through Sous Les Cieux I would also rule out Galileo's Choice.


I have concerns over the staying ability of Cinders And Ashes, especially in a strongly run extended 2 miles around an idiosyncratic track such as Cheltenham. His best form has come with cut in the ground, also. Darlan is another interesting runner, but he looked almost limited when winning last time and I think he needs to improve a great deal.


I know a few people fancy Montbazon, but I don't think his form is especially strong. He did finish 2nd behind last seasons Champion bumper winner Cheltenian, but he was getting 10lb that day and he never looked like winning. He more often than not finds one too good and I have questions about his attitude and will to win. He is likely to show the benefit of his recent hurdles experience when 1 length behind Colour Squadron, but he will need to show a fair bit more than that to win this tough race.


Originally I thought Simonsig would have a strong chance. His 2nd to the very highly regarded, unbeaten Fingal Bay looks superb form right now, and he looked the likely winner jumping 2 out over 2m4f before his effort flattened out. The rest were a long way back and the form has been franked by Fingal Bay winning next time, aswell as 3rd placed Barbatos winning well on his next start too. My main worry for Simonsig is also his staying power - to win a Supreme I feel you have to be able to stay 2m4f because the races are often strongly run, and the way Cheltenham is, it requires a stayer. Yes, he has won over 3 miles in a p2p but those races are so weak, there is hardly ever more than 1 good horse in a p2p, and his 2m4f in the UK was such a weak race he could have been on his last legs and still have won. He's the shortest of the Henderson runners and he arguably has the most ability of them too, but I have my doubts about his credentials.


Waaheb was one of the higher rated Irish bumper horses last season, and at first glance that chain of thought looks acceptable based on his bumper form - He won his first 3 starts very easily in soft ground, but he was undone at the 4th attempt when beaten by the ill-fated Lovethehigherlaw on good ground when getting 6lb. He had previously beaten Jenari giving away 14lb by just over 1 length on the bridle, but the proximity of Jenari in 3rd behind Lovethehigherlaw and Waaheb off level weights suggests to me that Waaheb isn't as talented on good ground. I have one major issue with his form when you look deeper, though - The horses from his debut win have a record of 0 wins from 27 runs since, the horses from his 2nd start have a record of 3/21 with Jenari winning 2 of those and Streets Of Network winning a maiden hurdle over an 89 rated rival - The form of Waaheb's 3rd win is 3/31 with 4th placed Cash And Go winning all 3 of those, having clearly improved a lot after a summer break and going hurdling. He is yet to jump a hurdle in public and he seems better on soft ground - I think he is too short at 10/1 joint favourite.


I am actually really keen on Steps To Freedom. He is currently 10/1 joint favourite so it isn't really an original choice but he is stunning value at the price. If he makes it to Cheltenham safe and sound, he will likely be 4/1 or shorter. There is a hell of a lot in his favour for this race that he is hard to ignore - He had smart bumper form in beating the likes of Montbazon, but he has bettered that since joining the Harrington stable. He is unbeaten over hurdles having won all 3 starts to date, he is also 3/3 under jockey Robbie Power, who is his likely pilot come March. A stable/jockey combination that teamed up to great effect last year with Boston's Angel in the RSA. Over jumps I find it helpful, and often a pointer to see a horses form going left or right handed and in the case of Steps To Freedom his best form has been left handed. His record going right handed reads 022411 which isn't too bad but his form left handed is 1F111 which makes for much better reading (his fall came when clipping heels in a bumper).


His hurdles debut win came by 8 lengths, hard on the bridle, going right handed over Leceile who won by a very easy 11 lengths next time out. Leceile was allowed a soft lead out in front and was able to hold off all other challengers but Steps To Freedom breezed past like he was stood still and rapidly put distance between them. His 2nd win was when beating the useful Sailors Warn, the race was run at a steady pace with all runners still travelling well jumping 2 out. The pace of the race wouldn't have suited Steps To Freedom and it makes his victory all that more impressive. His flaws when going right handed were plain to see when he got in to the home straight. He quickened smartly to join the leader that day but Robbie Power had notable steering problems, Steps To Freedom hung right all the way up the straight and bumped Sailors Warn jumping the last as he hung in but Power managed to get him in front and he pulled a length clear at the line without having to work too hard. It was his first run on ground softer than good.


Steps To Freedom's latest, and most impressive victory came at Cheltenham, gaining him valuable course form. He only won by a neck but I think he was value for a good deal more than that. Again it was slowly run which would have unsuited him but he settled nicely, jumped well and when push came to shove he stayed on strongly. He showed a lovely attitude to deny Prospect Wells that day giving him 3lb - Given a stronger pace I firmly believe he would have beaten his rivals by a great deal further.


Prospect Wells was considered a handicap 'good thing' in The Ladbroke at Ascot recently when running off 142. Steps To Freedom was giving him 3lb the last day and beat him well enough to suggest he has the ability of a much higher rated horse - he could probably be rated around 148 on that Cheltenham performance, and I think he would have a bit in hand over the handicapper off that mark. If you consider that Al Ferof was only rated 142 when he won this race last year against a strong looking bunch, Steps To Freedom definitely has the ability to win this with something to spare.


The Cheltenham run confirms he will stay the trip at Cheltenham in March, it also showed he is game when he has to get in to a battle. He has bags of speed, he jumps well, he settles and travels nicely and he has looked better and better with each run. He handles good ground, he also handles soft ground - in terms of ability, there is little that this horse doesn't possess. Going back to the Tom Segal quote, I think Steps To Freedom is just about the only runner in this field that would have a chance in the Champion Hurdle on all known form.

[ganjaman2]

RSA Chase - GRANDS CRUS @ 3/1 (and Gold Cup saver @ 9/1)


The negatives for Grands Crus are three fold; firstly he won at the Cheltenham November meeting and horses that win there have a surprisingly poor record at the Festival proper, secondly we are constantly told that he would prefer softer ground and thirdly there is a filthy rumour that he could be redirected to the Gold Cup. We also have to consider that the Novice chasers this year are a particularly strong bunch in general and that his price has already contracted quite a long way so we need to think about whether we are getting value.


Well, he has looked hugely impressive since going over fences in my opinion - including winning the Feltham Novices eased down in a time which was faster than the King George later on the card (!) - and has the contemptuous beating of his main market rival in that race. There is an argument to say that Join Together has the beating of him on a form line through Champion Court, but when Grands Crus beat him it was when Champion Court was raced prominently rather than held up and the trainer has now said that they are sure that this is where he is best. Silvianacio Conti was second by only 2 lengths at Kempton, and as such he must be considered, but the winning margin was no representation of his superiority that day. Bog Warrior and Last Instalment represent the best of the Irish form but it is very noticeable that Bog Warrior has never been over 2m4f on a racecourse so to me Last Instalment, who has looked the part in Novice events up to 3 miles so far, looks like the only one who really is up to giving Grands Crus a race if he is on song on the day. He is a solid favourite on the form without a doubt.


So what about the negatives? Well, I think the November meeting stats are there to be beaten and probably represent the fact that horses are sometimes brought on slowly by trainers and these Novices do improve for a sighter at the idiosyncratic Cheltenham course. I don't think that his action or his form particularly mark him out as a soft ground performer so I am more than happy to take the chance on the ground, so what of the Gold Cup? It looks a particularly weak year for jump racing's Blue Riband event, just as it looks a very strong year for the staying Novices so it probably isn't beyond the realms of fantasy and if he were to take part this fluid and professional jumper would I think have a great chance. However, a quick look through the history books will take one to an unfortunate incident involving Grands Crus stable and a horse named Gloria Victis who took part in the Gold Cup as a Novice in 2000, and was named by AP McCoy as one of the best horses he has ever sat on. He fell, broke a leg and had to be destroyed when just headed late on in the race. This incident could make connections think twice, or could easily I suppose make it more likely that they will want to vindicate the decision by sending another Novice. I don't know whether the incident was because he was competing at such a high level or not, and its unlikely that anyone knows, but it does supply as a ready warning to all concerned that there is no harm taking some time over bringing on a horse. Nevertheless, I think he would be in with a serious chance if he took his chance so it seems prudent to give him a saver only in this market.


Lastly, are we getting value? Well looking at the markets at the moment there are prices available ranging from 6/4 at Laddies to 7/2 at best (if you can get on) with 3/1 generally available. In my opinion now, assuming he gets there (never certain), he is sure to be under 2/1 whatever happens and could possible be a lot shorter than that if nothing makes a serious claim on the race in the next 2 months. So, yes I think it is good value, as is the Gold Cup bet assuming he goes that route and this has to be done for me.

[ganjaman2]

Tuesday 13th March, Day One


Champion Hurdle - Hurricane Fly 9/4, Binocular 10/1 e/w


Betting - 9/4 Hurricane Fly, 7/1 Grandouet, 8/1 Spirit Son, Zarkandar, 10/1 Binocular, 12/1 Rock On Ruby, Unaccompanied, 16/1 Oscars Well, 20/1 Oscar Whisky, Thousand Stars, 33/1 Bar


The comparison between the Supreme Novices' and the Champion Hurdle is an interesting one. The Supreme Novices' was a much greater test of stamina than the Champion and the way Spirit Son and Al Ferof ran on suggested they would be better over further - An opinion which Spirit Son confirmed when he hacked up in the Mersey Novices' Hurdle over 2m4f next time out.


I'm struggling to see the correlation between Grandouet's beating of an almost burned out Overturn getting 4lb from a horse who is apparently unsuited by Cheltenham, and the form you need to win a Champion Hurdle. The proximity of Brampour almost confirms to me that it was a useful, but not a top class run as Brampour was beaten over 10 lengths off his mark of 159 in The Ladbroke next time out (with Harry Derham claiming 7lb).


The bridge between the ages seems to have closed over the last few years with 5yo's Afsoun placing in 2007, Katchit winning in 2008, Celestial Halo and Binocular placing in 2009 and Zaynar placing in 2010, which would give you some hope toward the likes of Grandouet, Zarkandar and Unaccompanied. The latter however is a mare, and mare's have a terrible record in the race. Someone may be able to correct me on this but the only 2 mare's I can think of to have won the Champion Hurdle were Dawn Run and Flakey Dove(?). In the last 10 years 6 mares have attempted to win with only 1 placed - Bilbao in 2002. She was a rather fortunate placer too as Istabraq pulled up early and the other market leader, Valiramix, slipped up when still going strongly between 3 and 2 out.


The last of the 5yo's, Zarkandar, is interesting. He is a horse I have been impressed with in his 3 hurdle runs to date. I have one major concern with him though - Triumph winners have a poor record when trying to win the Champion Hurdle. From 59 runnings of the that race, only 4 have manager to go on and win the Champion Hurdle, most notably Persian War. As soon as Zarkandar won the Adonis at Kempton on debut I backed him for the Triumph as flat pedigree horses have a good record in that race, and he looked top class. He subsequently won the Triumph before winning again at Aintree in the 4yo hurdle. I don't believe either the Adonis or the 4yo hurdle were run to suit him as he looks like he needs a strong gallop - A strong gallop he got in the Triumph when most impressive. I would naturally assume a Championship 2 mile race at Cheltenham will be run at a decent pace so the way the race maps out should suit him. He's been given a breathing operation since his Aintree win and he could have improved a good deal since then but he's knocked in to himself at home and hasn't been seen since. He is a certain danger, but I don't think he has the experience or class as of yet. Maybe next year.


Only 1 horse in the last 10 years (Sublimity) has ran less than 3 times since that start of the season and won the Champion Hurdle, 8 of the 10 have ran either 3 or 4 times. It is a concern that we have seen neither Zarkandar or market leader Hurricane Fly. However, Hurricane Fly is an absolute machine - I would expect him to beat this field first time up with the amount of ability he possess. If you disregard the 3rd behind Solwhit when he wasn't right and subsequently off for 5 months, he is unbeaten in the UK and Ireland. There was an interview with Ruby Walsh a week or so ago in which he was asked "Who will win the Champion Hurdle?" and his reply was simply, "Hurricane Fly.". Given his connection to the Willie Mullins stable and HF himself, he must know how he is at home and I would be almost certain that Hurricane Fly will be at Cheltenham.


Hurricane Fly did a bit of work at Leopardstown last Thursday and apparently he was scintillating. Willie Mullins was reportedly delighted with him, having been somewhat disappointed with his work prior to his previous engagement over Christmas. He worked with 3 unnamed horses, when he was asked to quicken he put lengths between himself and the others. The confidence of Ruby, the reports out of the camp recently and the raw ability of the horse lead me to believe he will be a Champion once again. From 49 winners of the Champion Hurdle since WWII, 12 have won it more than once (24%).


There has been a lot said about Binocular and whether he can win the Champion Hurdle again, and though I don't believe he will I do think he is good value for an e/w bet at 10/1, more so if Hurricane Fly doesn't make it. I think we can safely forget the whole of his last campaign, he was never 100% right throughout the year and then there was the whole medication scandal. I believe Binocular still retains his ability, but he needs a good pace to run off - the size of the field could be a major contributor as to whether Binocular can run well or not. Since coming over to the UK his form in fields of 9 or less reads 1115313114321 (53% win rate, 53% place rate). That record looks fairly impressive for a normal horse but the hype around Binocular has always been huge so to only win just over 1 in every 2 runs is rather disappointing. However, in fields of 10 or more his record reads 12131 (60% win rate, 100% place rate) with his 2 defeats being a 2 lengths 2nd in the Supreme Novices' to Captain Cee Bee and a half length 3rd to Punjabi in the 2009 Champion Hurdle.


I would also like the make the point that Binocular may be a horse that comes good in the first quater of the year, even including last season when he wasn't right, his best performances were between the January 1st and March 31st. Between those dates his record in the UK or Ireland, on the whole reads 11231111 (75% win rate, 100% place rate) with the defeats as mentioned before. His record between April 1st and December 31st reads 1115334321 (40% win rate, 50% place rate). We're likely to discover his ability compared to Hurricane Fly in the Irish Champion Hurdle towards the end of January - I suspect he'll get beat, but I wouldn't think it will be anywhere near the 9 lengths he trailed in behind in the Ragobank Champion Hurdle last season.


Paul Nicholls has said he doesn't think Rock On Ruby has the pace for Championship races at 2 miles, and he did mention that the Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f was his main target this season. He would have to improve a bit to reverse form with Binocular from the Christmas Hurdle when I don't think the race was run to suit either of them. I don't believe Oscars Well is remotely good enough to challenge the top 2 milers and I think it is more likely that Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars will go for the World Hurdle. If either or both came for the Champion Hurdle they would have place claims but they don't possess the tactical speed that the likes of Hurricane Fly or Binocular do.

[ganjaman2]

I was most impressed with Sanctuaire's chasing debut at Taunton today where he made the running for the first time in his career (more by accident than design perhaps).


He showed a great appetite for jumping fences compared with his mulish demeanour over hurdles (reluctant to start at times) and he wouldn't be the first horse who's been transformed by a change to steeplechasing.


His jumping was superb for a debutant, certainly no worse than that of Sprinter Sacre the Arkle favourite on his. Sprinter Sacre is 2/1 for the Arkle and Sanctuaire, the same age (6) and 1lb his superior over hurdles on official ratings, is 25/1. Given that he has a champion trainer and the best jock riding. that is a silly price - twice as long as it should be imo.


The Racing Post Arkle is a hot race. Sprinter Sacre is a possible superstar, Cue Card is good value as the pace of the race will see him at his best imo, but 25/1 Sanctuaire is a rare error by bookmakers, I think, and he must be a great bet at that price especially as he wil probably make the running and trade quite short.


just had a few £ e/way on sanctuaire