BOYLESPORTS.COM HURDLE 2012 TRENDS

[ganjaman2]

The Boylesports.com (Handicap) Hurdle (formerly the Ladbrokes, Pierse or MCR Hurdle) takes place at Leopardstown on Saturday 28th January and is one of the major handicap hurdles on the Irish national hunt calendar. Run over 2 miles for 4yos and upwards rated 0-145, it is always a lively betting heat.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 2-5-62
6yo: 2-14-69
7yo: 3-3-61
8yo: 3-4-40
9yo: 0-1-18
10yo+: 0-3-14
10 of 10 winners were aged 5 to 8, though they did make up almost 80% of the total runners.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-12 or more: 1-11-72
Horses carrying 10-11 or less: 9-19-190
Horses carrying 10-11 or less have won the last 9 runnings and are especially favoured in softer ground.
Top Weight: 00940200008 (0-2-11)
Horses carrying a penalty (0-1-24) have a particularly bad record, gaining just one place from 24 representatives, 13 of which were sent off 12/1 or below (4 were favourite or co-favourite).

Official Ratings
Horses rated 127 or higher: 0-4-39
Horses rated 116 to 126: 8-17-130
Horses rated 115 or lower: 2-9-95
8 of 10 winners were officially rated between 116 and 126 & they have filled 25 of 40 places.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won or placed last time (exception missed out on a place in a grade c h'cap hurdle by a short head on previous start)
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in the last year on their last start
8 of 10 winners had previous start at Leopardstown, Punchestown or Fairyhouse
7 of 10 winners (last 6) had run in the past 35 days
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 4 times that season
10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 9 hurdles
10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 5 handicap hurdles
8 of 10 winners had yet to win a handicap hurdle
No winner of this race had previously won a handicap hurdle worth 10K+.
10 of 10 winners were second season hurdlers

Other Races
Clonmel Martinstown Opportunity H'cap Hurdle winner (Dul Ar An Ol): 1 (1-0-1)
Fairyhouse Membership 2012 Handicap Hurdle winner (Bay Of Kotor):17 (1-0-2)
Mallow.ie Handicap Hurdle winner (Madame Mado): 30 (0-1-2)
Bavaria Imported Premium Lager H'cap Hurdle winner (Ubi Ace): 5 (0-0-1)
Isobel Boutique Adare Hurdle winner (Sailors Warn): 00 (0-0-2)
Follow Punchestown On Facebook Novice H'cap Hurdle winner (Citizenship): 07 (0-0-2)
Download Free Racing Post App. H'cap Hurdle winner (Askthemaster): 0F0 (0-0-3)
Bar One Racing H'cap Hurdle winner (Staying Article): 50506 (0-0-5)
Paddypower.com Handicap Hurdle winner (Cass Bligh): 060707 (0-0-6)
4 of 10 winners ran in a hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, finishing 2365
3 of 10 winners were placed in a hurdles race at Leopardstown Christmas meeting
2 of 2 Willie Mullins-trained winners ran in Bar One H'cap Hurdle, finishing 25

Running Style
8 of 10 winners raced in mid-division or tracked the leaders
In general it is not easy to come from too far back in this race and being situated in the front 7 or 8 is highly preferable.

Trainers
Willie Mullins (2-6-28) trained the first 2 last year and trained 3 of the first 4 home in 2010. Both his winners ran in the Bar One Handicap Hurdle at Fairyhouse in December.
Tony Martin (1-2-8) has gained 1 win and 2 places from his 8 runners since 2002.
Robert Tyner (1-1-3), Charles Byrnes (1-1-4) and Jessica Harrington (1-1-13) have each saddled the winner and a placed finisher in past 10 years.
Noel Meade (0-0-20), Eddie O’Grady (0-0-12) and Charlie Swan (0-0-6) have failed to train a placed finisher in this from their combined 36 runners in the last 10 years.

Price
9 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 16/1
The one big shock in this race was Penny’s Bill at 50/1 in 2009, when a slightly fortuitous winner over the favourite Psycho in 2nd.
Favourites (2-1-14) have gained 2 wins in the past decade, giving a level stakes loss of 0.50.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 5 to 8
• Won or placed last time (ideally at Leopardstown, Fairyhouse or Punchestown)
• Posted their highest RPR last time out
• Run no more than 4 times this season
• Run 3 to 9 times over hurdles
• Run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning 0 or 1)
• Second season hurdler
• Carrying less than 10-12
• Officially rated 116 to 126
• Tends to races prominently
• Trained by Willie Mullins or Tony Martin
• Priced 16/1 or shorter