CLEEVE HURDLE TRENDS 2012

[ganjaman2]

The Cleeve Hurdle is a grade 2 three mile hurdle which takes place at Cheltenham on Saturday 28th January. Two of the last four winners of this race have gone on to win the World Hurdle and it looks as if Big Buck’s will be using this as his final prep run for Cheltenham.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 3-0-10
6yo: 2-5-21
7yo: 1-6-17
8yo: 1-3-16
9yo: 3-2-16
10yo: 0-1-8
11yo+: 0-0-7
The age of winners has been fairly well spread out with 5yos and 9yos having the best individual records.
Horses aged 10+ have a poor record (0-1-15) and should be avoided.

Gender
Mares (1-0-2) have been represented in 4 runnings since 2000. A female won the race in 2000, 2001 & 2002 and the only other female runner was Sweet Seville, who was pulled up at 200/1 last year.

Weight
Since this race became a grade 2 in 2004 only Inglis Drever (who had won the previous season's World Hurdle) has managed to carry 11-8 to victory. 5 of 8 winners carried 11-0.
Horses allotted 11-8: 1-3-23
Horses allotted 11-4: 2-8-21
Horses allotted 11-0 or less: 5-4-39

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on their last completed start
10 of 10 winners posted their highest hurdles RPR in 1 of last 2 hurdles outings
10 of 10 winners had run in 5 to 19 hurdles races prior to this
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 5 times since August
9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a grade 1 or 2 (exception was a listed winner having first try in graded company)
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 5F+
9 of 10 winners had previously won or placed at Cheltenham

Other Races
Long Distance Hurdle winner (Big Buck's): 21 (1-1-2)
World Hurdle winner (Big Buck's): 1 (1-0-1)
Listed Haydock H’cap Hurdle winner (Dynaste): 51 (1-0-2)
Citipost H'cap Hurdle winner (Oscargo): 9032 (0-2-4)
Long Walk hurdle winner (Big Buck's): 62 (0-1-2)
West Yorkshire Hurdle winner (Restless Harry): 88879 (0-0-5)
8 of 10 winners ran at the previous year's Aintree Festival
3 of 10 winners ran in the Relkeel Hurdle, finishing 212
3 of 10 winners ran in the Mersey Novice Hurdle, finishing 122
Only 1 of 10 winners ran in the previous World Hurdle, finishing 1st

Trainers
David Pipe (1-0-7) and Paul Nicholls (1-0-7) are the only two trainers with entries that have won the race since 2002.

Price
7 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
No strong trend on prices with 3 of the last 6 winners going off 14/1 to 16/1.
Favourites (4-3-10) have won 4 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 0.90.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
Aged 5 to 9
Carrying 11-0 to 11-4 (or won 2011 World Hurdle)
Finished in the first 4 last time out
Run 1 to 5 times this season
Run 5 to 19 times over hurdles
Previously won or placed at Cheltenham
Won over at least 2M 5F
Won or placed in a graded hurdle
Finished in the first 2 in the Relkeel or Mersey Novice Hurdle
Ran at the 2011 Aintree Festival

[ganjaman2]

1 78242 Across The Bay 42 8 Donald McCain 140 137 142
2 111-11 Big Buck´s 42 9 Paul Nicholls 174 154 178
3 14-545 Cross Kennon 42 8 Jennie Candlish 154 125 160
4 216-14 Dynaste 42 6 David Pipe 158 148 159
5 6-9222 Five Dream 42 8 Paul Nicholls 153 148 152
6 11-2F4 Hard To Swallow 27 6 Martin Keighley 128 116 125
7 8-5022 Kayf Aramis 27 10 Nigel Twiston-Davies 139 108 137
8 3-2422 Mourad 31 7 W P Mullins — 115 163
9 U1-31U Oscargo 27 8 Paul Nicholls 145 113 141
10 9-1323 Restless Harry 42 8 Robin Dickin 153 147 156
11 006P0 Whatuthink 32 10 Oliver McKiernan — -1 —