The Betfair Hurdle (formerly the Totesport Trophy) is one of the major handicap hurdles on the British national hunt calendar and takes place at Newbury on Saturday 11th February. The race is generally won by a less exposed hurdler and the past 2 winners were both novices. The race has been abandoned twice in past 6 years but hopefully the race goes ahead this year and we get to see Zarkandar return to action.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2000-2011):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-1
5yo: 4-14-56
6yo: 3-7-59
7yo: 2-3-49
8yo: 0-2-19
9yo: 1-1-19
10yo+: 0-3-9
5 to 7 year olds have taken 9 of the last 10 (from just over 77% of total runners) with the one exception being when Geos won the race for a second time as a 9yo.
The last 5 winners have all been aged 5 or 6.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 3-15-88
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 7-15-124
6 of the last 7 winners (including the last 4) carried 10-9 or less to victory.
All 3 horses to carry 10-10+ to victory in this race had finished 1st or 2nd in either the Boylesports.com H’cap Hurdle (formerly the Pierse/MCR) on previous start or in this race the previous year.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 145 or more: 1-4-31
Horses rated 131 to 144: 7-21-138
Horses rated 130 or lower: 2-5-43
Horses officially rated 131 to 144 have won 7 of the last 10 from approximately 65% of the runners, so no strong trend here.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (5 won)
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in 1 of their last 2 hurdles starts (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)
8 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better handicap hurdle last time (2 exceptions were novice hurdlers that had run just 3 times)
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 6 times since August
9 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles
9 of 10 winners had run in 15 or fewer hurdles (exception was Geos' second win in this)
8 of 10 winners were first or second season hurdlers (2 exceptions Geos and Copeland had previously finished 1st and 2nd in the race)
7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a hurdles race worth 16K+ (3 exceptions had all run in just 3 hurdles races and won last time out)
10 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race with 11+ runners
Other Races
Bavaria Imported Premium Lager H'cap Hurdle winner (Ubi Ace): 2102 (1-2-4)
Sportingbet Conditional Jockeys' H’cap Hurdle winner (Empire Levant): 1 (1-0-1)
Boylesports.com H'cap Hurdle winner (Citizenship): 71 (1-0-2)
Anniversary 4yo Hurdle winner (Zarkandar): 703 (0-1-3)
Triumph Hurdle winner (Zarkandar): 05 (0-0-2)
The Ladbroke winner (Raya Star): P0P (0-0-3)
32Red Handicap Hurdle winner (Ciceron): 807 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Bavaria Imported Premium Lager H'cap Hurdle, finishing 3173
3 of 10 winners ran in Boylesports.com H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 251
3 of 10 winners ran in Stellar Football End of Transfer Window H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 119
Trainers
Nicky Henderson (3-4-29) has won 3 of the past 10 runnings, though his last winner was in 2004 and his 15 runners since then have produced 0 wins and just 2 places.
Gary Moore (2-1-8) trained the winner in 2 of the last 3 years he’s been represented.
Jessica Harrington (1-0-1) and Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-7) are the only other 2 trainers with entries to have won it since 2000.
Philip Hobbs (0-7-16) hasn’t won any of the last 10 runnings but has seen 10 of his 16 runners finishing in the top 6, 7 getting placed.
David Pipe (0-3-8) and Alan King (0-2-7) accounted for the 3 of the first 4 home in 2010 and 2 of the first 4 home last year.
Irish trained runners (2-2-28) have provided 2 of last 10 winners from approximately 13% of total runners. Both Irish winners ran in Boylesports.com H’cap Hurdle on previous start.
Price
No strong trend on prices though 5 of the last 7 winners went off at 12/1 or bigger including a 50/1 winner in 2007.
Favourites (2-4-11) have won 2 of the last 10 & show a level return to a unit stake.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 5 to 7
· Carrying 10-9 or less (or previously finished in first 2 in this or Boylesport.com H’dl)
· Finished in first 3 last time in a class 2 or better hurdle (or a novice hurdler)
· First or second season hurdler
· Run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles (won no more than 2)
· Won or placed in a big h'cap hurdle this season (or run in 3 or fewer hurdles races)
· Won a hurdle with 11+ runners in it
· Finished in first 5 in Boylesports.com or Stellar Football H’cap Hurdle last time
· Finished in first 3 in Bavaria Imported Premium Lager H'cap Hurdle
· Trained by Nicky Henderson Gary Moore or Philip Hobbs
Social Networking Bookmarks