ASCOT CHASE TRENDS 2012

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The Betfair Ascot Chase takes place on a top quality card at Ascot on Saturday 18th February. A grade 1 chase, run over 2M 5½F it should prove an informative race with a view to the middle distance chase at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-1-7
7yo: 1-1-5
8yo: 5-3-18
9yo: 1-2-12
10yo: 1-2-14
11yo+: 2-1-10
8 year olds have done best, winning 5 of the last 10.
2 of 3 winners aged 10+ had won the race before

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times since August
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
10 of 10 winners had at least 6 times over fences
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions finish in first 3 in a grade 1)
9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a grade 1 (exception had won a grade 2 chase)
5 of 10 winners were previous course winners (5 exceptions having their first run here)
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 150+ (2 exceptions rated 140 & 145)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Riverside Theatre): 3F342 (0-1-5)
BetVictor.com Handicap Chase winner (Tatenen): 13 (1-0-2)
Peterborough Chase winner (Gauvain): 3 (0-1-1)
Shloer Chase winner (Gauvain): 2 (0-1-1)
Previous season's Dipper Novice Chase winner (Hell's Bay): 2 (0-1-1)
Ladbrokes.com Chase winner (Kauto Stone): P5 (0-0-2)
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 5) ran in the King George, finishing 6132
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) ran in the Old Roan Chase, finishing 241
3 of 3 second season chasers to win it, ran in the Arkle, finishing 525
The record of horses that finished in the first 5 in previous season's Arkle is very strong: 21214F1 (3-2-7)
7 of 10 winners finished in first 5 in the Arkle in their novice chase season

Trainers
The Pipe yard (4-0-12) have been responsible for 4 of the last 10 winners, though all 4 were trained by Martin, David’s 3 runners have all been unplaced.
Paul Nicholls (1-2-12) and Nicky Henderson (1-1-4) have both trained the winner twice since 2000.
Alan King (1-0-2) trained Voy Por Ustedes to win the race in 2009 while Nick Williams (0-1-1) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-2) have each saddled the runner-up in past 10 runnings.

Price
8 of 10 winners were priced under 6/1
5 of the last 6 favourites have won this and only one horse priced in double-figures has been successful in the past 10 years.
Favourites (6-1-10) have gained 6 wins in the past decade, giving a level stakes profit of 4.64.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 7 to 9 (especially 8yos)
· Run 1 to 4 times this season
· Previously run in at least 6 chases
· Won a graded chase
· Won or placed in a grade 1 chase
· Won over 2M 4F+
· Officially rated 150+
· Course winner (or having first run here)
· Finished in the first 5 in the Arkle as a novice chaser
· Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson
· Priced below 5/1 (favourite especially)