MY BETS FOR DAY 4 AT CHELTENHAM
my bets for day 4 at cheltenham [wishing every-one the best of luck for the last day]
JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE
Last season’s 1-2-3 all won on their most recent start thus extending the record of last-time-out winners from 16 of the last 18 (if you include Scolardy winning his final start only to be disqualified) so that is a strong statistic and would instantly put me off Arctic Reach, Countrywide Flame, Dodging Bullets, His Excellency, Hollow Tree, Mattoral, Sadler’s Risk, Shadow Catcher, Ut De Sivola and Wingtips as win only bets. Pearl Swan was disqualified from first place last time out so it would be very harsh to overlook him on that run as he did pass the post in front.
There can be no question that this is a different race now to the one before the introduction of the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap in 2005. For a start, all seven winners could be found in the first four in the betting, positions that are currently occupied by Sadlers Risk, Grumeti, Pearl Swan and Baby Mix though Shadow Catcher, Darroun or Balder Succes could force their way into one of those positions on the day.
The last three winners were all French imports which is a positive for Baby Mix, Balder Succes, Darroun, Pearl Swan, Ut De Sivola and Urbain De Sivola though the latter never raced in France as such, but we can’t oppose horses for being off the track too long as all the declarations have a recent run to their name.
Three of the last four winners had run no more than twice over hurdles compared to just one winner between 1988-2007 so, on that basis, Darroun, Dodging Bullets, Dysios, Sadlers Risk, Shadow Catcher, West Brit, Wing Tips and Pearl Swan can be given another tick.
The last six winners were all rated 138+ by the BHA Handicapper. Those that fail on this rating stat (or should fail but don’t have an official rating yet but appear to be under that mark using collateral formlines) are Asaid, Dysios, His Excellency, Mattoral, West Brit and Wingtips.
Flat race form is also important as the last 13 Triumph winners that had a Flat campaign ran over 1m4f at least once (Grumeti, Shadow Catcher and Hisaabaat are lacking in this respect of the leading fancies that raced on the Flat) which is not to be overlooked as this is essentially a test of stamina for a four-year-old.
Seven of the last eight winners did not have their hurdling debut until at least December with four of those not running over timber until at least January. In fact, we never even saw the last two winners in Britain until they won the Adonis Hurdle three weeks before this race and that has been easily best the guide with as many as five of the last 12 winners going on to double up in the Triumph and that would probably have been six had Binocular not been re-routed at the last moment to the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Baby Mix beat Sadlers Risk in this year’s running.
SHORT LIST
BABY MIX
PEARL SWAN
DARROUN
BALDER SUCCES
CONCLUSION
The current favourite, Sadlers Risk, was beaten last time out which is a serious negative for this race so he misses out on the short list despite being the top rated Flat horse in the race and having run in the best trial when second in the Adonis Hurdle to BABY MIX. As the winner of that trial, then Baby Mix is an obvious trends horses given that 5 of the last 12 Triumph winners won that Kempton Grade 2 race and he has winning course form to boot. PEARL SWAN represents Paul Nicholls who has won this race twice recently and, like Baby Mix, he is a French import and they have won the last three runnings. He is also lightly raced over hurdles like recent winners and arrives here off the back of passing the post in front in a relevant trial. DARROUN is another lightly-raced French import from a yard that has won this race before and can prove best of the Irish in their bid to record their first win in this contest in ten years though that last winner (Scolardy) was also trained by Willie Mullins. BALDER SUCCES is 4-4 this season and another French import and represents a yard with two wins, two seconds and a third in recent seasons so he makes up the short list. Grumeti, Hisaabaat and Shadow Catcher didn’t race over long enough distances on the Flat to be considered short list trends-based material.
VINCENT O’BRIEN COUNTY HURDLE
The key two guides have been the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury which has highlighted four winners on the last eight occasions when the race beat the weather and the boylesports.com Hurdle at Leopardstown which has featured four of the last nine Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle winners.
Dealing with the Betfair Hurdle first won by Zarkandar, this year’s Newbury race had so much strength in depth featuring the winners of so many big handicap hurdles over two miles over the last two seasons that it is hard to imagine that there will be a stronger handicap hurdle run all season so it has to be taken very seriously as a County Hurdle guide. The second (Get Me Out Of Here) finished second in the Coral Cup on Wednesday. Contenders from the Betfair Hurdle are Raya Star (3rd), Olofi (5th), Sailors Warn (6th), Via Galilei (11th), Desert Cry (12th) and Alarazi (14th).
Regards the boylesports.com Hurdle, this season the race carries a massive 100,000 euros bonus if the winner can also go on and land a race at the Cheltenham Festival which is what Citizenship will be attempting to achieve. Trained by Jessica Harrington who has won aCountyHurdlealready with Spirit Leader, Citizenship passed 13 horses in the home straight so the extra furlong and theCheltenhamhill should be ideal. Final Approach completed the Boylesports/County Hurdle double last season so there is a very recent precedent. Citizenship is the only horse of the 30 that lined up in that Leopardstown race to run in this year’s Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle.
The 139-rated Final Approach broke a run of six successive years of winners being rated in the 128-135 bracket when he got the verdict in the tightest of finishes 12 months ago. The only horses in that bracket this year are Master Of Arts, Ted Spread, Ifyouletmefinish, Ingleby Spirit, Citizenship and Court In Session.
If you fancy the top weight, or a horse just tucked in the top weight in the handicap, I would seriously think again as no County Hurdle winner has carried more than 11st 8lbs for 52 years and only one horse has carried more than 11st 8lbs even into the frame since 1979 which would put me off Starlcuk, Clerks Choice and Moon Dice.
Willie Mullins’ Final Approach was a five-year-old when successful last season so he kept their terrific strike rate going extending their recent record to eight wins from the last 13 renewals from around just a fifth of the total runners in that period. Five-year-olds in this year’s line up are Sailors Warn, Local Hero, Plan A, Edgardo Sol, Magnifique Etoile, Ted Spread, Ifyouletmefinish and Ingleby Spirit.
Irish-trained of course, last year’s winner was therefore giving their raiders their fifth Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle winner in the last nine years. The are eight-handed this year with Citizenship, Moon Dice, Dirar, Sailors Warn, The Bull Hayes, Plan A, Alderwood and Redera.
Also note Paul Nicholls with his record in the last eight years of three winners and a second in one of the hottest handicap hurdles run all season and he runs Ted Spread and Edgardo Sol. Philip Hobbs is another trainer to respect in the County Hurdle with a record of two winners plus a second and three thirds from 19 runners since 1990 and he runs Snap Tie who has dropped to a mark of 137 having not run for 882 days having been rated 158 the last time we saw him over hurdles.
Unlike the Coral Cup, a quiet season is certainly not the order of the day as 16 of the last 18 winners had run at least four times earlier in the campaign which is against Starluck, Clerks Choice, Dee Ee Williams, Local Hero, Snap Tie and Master Of Arts.
SHORT LIST
CITIZENSHIP
IFYOULETMEFINISH
TED SPREAD
SAILORS WARN
INGLEBY SPIRIT
CONCLUSION
Having won one the two key guides, being Irish-trained (and by a yard successful in the race before) and falling into the right official ratings bracket then CITIZENSHIP is the main trends pick. Judging by the way he finished strongly to win the Boylesports Hurdle, he should also love this stiff finish and extra furlong and connections will be relieved he has squeezed in by one place. IFYOULETMEFINISH could be best of the five-year-olds who have a very good record in this race as he arrives here off a win (always a plus for Festival handicap hurdles) and fits into that same ratings bracket. Paul Nicholls’ TED SPREAD is another five-year-old to be one of just six horses to also fall into that ratings bracket and his stable have a great record with novices in this race so he has to go on the short list despite a disappointing run when well fancied for last weekend’s Imperial Cup. Richard Fahey also has a five-year-old in the right area of the handicap so certainly don’t overlook INGLEBY SPIRIT who was fourth in the Scottish County Hurdle last time out. The Betfair Hurdle representative to concentrate on could be SAILORS WARN given he is Irish-trained and a five-year-old which are two key patterns. His trainer is always to be feared in the Festival handicaps and landed a monster gamble in this race over 30 years ago and he ran in last season’s Triumph Hurdle which has been throwing up big race winners all season.
ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE
This is only the eighth running but some strong trends are already emerging not least the importance of previous quality form at the course as six of the seven winners had run at Cheltenham before, five of which had done so on two occasions with four winning at least once. That said, no previous course winners are in this year’s field but Sea Of Thunder was going to hack up here in December until falling at the last flight. I am not sure Cheltenhamform will be that much of a factor this year.
The best course guide has been the Hyde Novices’ Hurdle run over 2m5f in November in which Fingal Bay beat Barbatos as no less than four Albert Bartlett winners took part in that contest but only Sivola De Sivola (5th) takes his chance here of runners from that contest. The Bristol Novices’ Hurdle run at Cheltenham’s December Meeting over three miles won by Deireadh Re (doesn’t run here) has also proven to be an informative guide. The horse to take from that race is Sea Of Thunder who was six lengths ahead and stretching further clear when falling at the final flight. Black Jack Ketchum and Nenuphar Collonges won that Grade 2 prize en route to winning here and last year’s winner, Mossley, only found his stable mate too good in the Albert Bartlett so the record of the Bristol winner now reads an impressive 3141P2. The Classic Novices’ Hurdle run in late-January over 2m4f ½m and won by Batonnier is the third big Albert Bartlett guide to be run at Cheltenham earlier in the season. Bobs Worth took it last season prior to winning here thus emulating the 2007 winner, Wichita Lineman. Hard To Swallow (4th) is left to represent that race this year
Other stats to take to note of are that just one winner could be found outside of the front five in the betting (positions currently occupied by Boston Bob, Mount Benbulben, Sea Of Thunder, Rocky Creek and Brindisi Breeze) and the same figures apply winners that failed to win or finish second last time out. Horses not to notch up a win or second place finish last time I therefore have to oppose are American Spin, Fill The Power, Tour Des Champs,SeaOfThunderand Sivola De Sivola.
One factor that all seven winners adhered to, however, was having run at three times over hurdles which hasn’t been the case lately for the Triumph Hurdle or was the case for a good number of years until fairly recently for the Supreme. This counts against Rocky Creek.
With age, in my belief, comes greater stamina so I am not surprised that it took the Albert Bartlett just six runnings to produce three winners aged 7+ whereas it has taken the last 72 combined runnings of the Supreme and Neptune to better that figure so I would go even further and actively encourage punters to take the take an opposite view to the perceived norm in novice hurdles and treat older novices (and by that I mean 7+) as a positive for this three-miler. The likely first two in the market, Boston Bob andMountBenbulben, are both seven-year-olds as are Lovcen and The Bosses Cousin. The only eight-year-old is American Spin.
SHORT LIST
BOSTON BOB
MOUNT BENBULBEN
BRINDISIBREEZE
LOVCEN
CONCLUSION
It could well be that the Irish pair of BOSTON BOB and MOUNT BENBULBEN are a class apart. The former beat the latter in a Grade 1 event at Navan in December and the only other two runners in that race have won good races since.MountBenbulbenwasn’t at his best (sent off odds-on that day) as he returned with a sore back which explains his jumping out to the right. He looks the best alternative to Boston Bob if you don’t fancy the skinny price about the favourite who has since given weight and a good beating to a very good field in heavy ground. Both should enjoy this step up to 3m and are 7-year-olds which is a good thing for a novice event at this trip. BRINDISI BREEZE won a Grade 2 by a street on heavy ground last time so the ground could be an issue but he is likely to be overpriced on account of his less heralded connections. LOVCEN looks a toughie and this test could really suit Alan King’ charge who has won this race before with another toughie in Nenuphar Collonges and has had others run well in the race. He could be the best of those for each-way punters at double figure prices.
BETFRED CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP
If Kauto Star is going to re-write history yet again, no horse older than ten has won since 1969 let alone a twelve-year-old. Even ten-year-olds struggle these days with just one winner in the last 18 runnings. Therefore he is no trends horse and is opposed on age grounds alongside Midnight Chase and The Midnight Club.
The last 12 winners having previously won a Grade 1 race. The only Grade 1 winners in the field are Long Run, Kauto Star, Synchronised, Quel Esprit, Diamond Harry and What A Friend. The key Grade 1 race has unquestionably been the King George VI Chase as that race has highlighted nine of the last 12 Gold Cup winners and witnessed an astonishing fifth win in the race for Kauto Star whose superior jumping was too good for Long Run on this occasion.
The Betfair Chase, in which Kauto Star’s jumping and probable fitness advantage was a big factor in his victory over Long Run, has proven to be the joint second-best guide of current season races in the last decade with three wins which is no mean feat given that it was first introduced into the fixture list in 2006. Last season’s renewal has also featured three winners in the last ten years and 12 months ago it was Long Run who mastered Kauto Star over a trip many believe will play to his strengths better than the three miles of Haydock and Kempton. Weird Al, Diamond Harry and Time For Rupert were back in third, fourth and fifth at Haydock though Weird Al was only a couple of lengths off Long Run on that occasion with a gap back to the remainder.
Another notable statistic is that only one of the last 13 winners failed to win earlier in the season which is againstBurton Port,ChinaRock, Diamond Harry, Knockara Beau, The Midnight Club and What A Friend.
Nine of the last 11 Gold Cup winners had won or finished second at the Cheltenham Festival before (Long Run, Kauto Star andBurtonPortare the only qualifiers on this factor) and half of the last 20 winners were second-season chasers from considerably less than 50% representation. That latter stat will be of interest to supporters of Quel Esprit and Time For Rupert.
Also consider that the last 11 winners could be found in the first three in the betting and ten of the last 11 winners had a BHA rating of 166+ entering the race (Kauto Star 183, Long Run 182, Synchronised 167 and Burton Port 166 are the only quartet rated 166+).
Finally, do consider the fact front runners have averaged a win every five Gold Cups over the last 30 years. I would expect Midnight Chase to lead with Kauto Star, Quel Esprit and Carruthers hot on his heels.
SHORTLIST
LONG RUN
SYNCHRONISED
(WEIRD AL)
(BURTON PORT)
CONCLUSION
LONG RUN would be the narrow trends picks over SYNCHRONISED on the basis that he has finished first or second at the Festival before and being assured of a top three position in the betting. Both are the right kind of age, are Grade 1 winners and have won this season and are rated 166+ so meet the four key criteria. Long Run also ran in the best trial when second in the King George and the likes of Best Mate and Kauto Star have proven that after years of Gold Cup winners not being able to win the race more than once, that in the current era and on better ground, it is very possible. Synchronised would be the second choice on trends surviving the major negative stats but not filling as many of the positive trends as the reigning title holder. He couldn’t have won the Lexus Chase much more impressively. Kauto Star fits so many positive stats but he does have the age trends to overcome which is the most important in my view hence his omission. The final two short list berths were between Weird Al, Quel Espirt and Burton Port who all have a couple of negatives to overcome but, in the end I just went with WEIRD AL as the yard couldn’t be in better form (same argument for Burton Port of course) but I like the fact that he ran third in the Betfair Chase just behind Long Run off levels (Burton Port was just behind Long Run receiving 10lbs) and that Haydock race has been a terrific guide to this race since its inception as the third pick. BURTON PORT would be the final short list contender in this 15-strong field as I like the fact he has placed on his only Festival start when he was second in the RSA Chase whereas Quel Esprit has fallen twice at this meeting and been unplaced twice.
CHRISTIE’S FOXHUNTER CHASE
The age factor has been an important element as 19 of the last 21 winners were aged ten or younger from around half the runners. From a trends point of view that means that Cloudy Lane, Eleazar, Keenan’s Future and Theatre Diva can’t appear on the short list. Surprising that there are only four this year as we can usually lose half the field with that stat.
Next up, we have to seriously consider allying ourselves purely to last-time-out winners. Not so much because 21 of the last 26 Foxhunters’ won last time out but because the1-2-3for the last four years were all last-time-out winners. In fact, the first six home last season won on their most recent start following directly on from the first eight past the post 12 months earlier. Therefore I have to be against Blackstaff, Eleazar, Herons Well, Keenan’s Future, Not Before Eight, On The Fringe, Oscar Delta, Surenaga, Turko and Theatre Diva with my trends hat on.
The fact that 20 of the last 23 winners emerged from a pointing background will please the traditionalists but beware for punting purposes as the three that did not were in the last seven years so this is now more for a point of interest. Those not initially brought up through the pointing ranks are Chapoturgeon, Barbers Shop, Turko,Cloudy Lane, Eleazar, Just Amazing, Merchant Royal, Not Before Eight, Picaroon, Roulez Cool, Salsify and Theatre Diva.
The most significant guide in recent seasons is a race that took place approximately 46 weeks earlier as the Champion Hunters’ Chase at the Punchestown Festival won by Salsify has featured three of the last five winners. Salsify also won a strong renewal of the Raymond Smith Hunters’ Chase at Leopardstown last month and is a major player to become the seventh Irish-trained winner since 1983. The other Irish horses are On The Fringe, Boxer Georg, Count Salazar, Merchant Royal, Not Before Eight and Oscar Delta
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Only Cappa Bleu of the last 18 winners had not won under Rules having done his share of winning in point-to-points and don’t be scared of chancing a long shot or two as seven of the last 11 were sent off at 14/1+. In-running punters should certainly take note of the front runner’s record as six of the last 16 winners led heading out onto the second circuit and some will argue that should have been seven but for Baby Run’s exit when leading at the penultimate fence last season though I’m not sure. Picaroon may well be the pacemaker here but whether he is good enough to last it out is another matter.
SHORTLIST
SALSIFY
MERCHANT ROYAL
MY FLORA
ROWDY RAMAPGE
COUNT SALAZAR
CONCLUSION
Given the good record of the Irish recently and the fact he won the best recent guide at last season’s Punchestown Festival and the strongest hunter chase run inIrelandthis season then SALSIFY is the one to beat and he is young enough to keep on improving. COUNT SALAZAR is likely to be a big price but as a young, Irish hunter brought up through the pointing ranks he is worthy of a place on the short list in a race that has thrown up some shocks recently. So too is MERCHANT ROYAL who is 3-3 since running behind Salsify in that Punchestown race that has thrown up three of the last five winners. He may have started off in a bumper but, to all intents and purposes, he has come up through the pointing and hunter chasing ranks. ROWDY RAMPAGE and MY FLORA could be best of the British. Rowdy Rampage is trained by Paul Nicholls who has trained two Foxhunters’ winners and was working with the yard’s big guns in his final gallops. He may not have run for 224 days but he has won his last seven completed starts and we know he is not going to fail for lack of fitness from this stable. My Flora is the darling of the point-to-point set and the champion novice hunter chaser of last season. She was beaten by Chapoturgeon andCloudy Laneat Newbury when falling back in March but has impressed in a point-to-point since. If she had an off day at Newbury, then she is right in the mix here.
MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’ HANDICAP HURDLE
In addition to the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase, this handicap has also been upgraded for the first time this season from a 0-140 to a 0-145. Just three years to work off so we really are clutching at straws as far as meaningful patterns are concerned so I will keep this brief.
There could be something in the fact that all three winners were second-season hurdlers and that both British-trained winners had previously proven their ability to handle a big field handicap atCheltenham.
For understandable reasons there will be plenty of focus on David Pipe’s entries for this particular handicap and, as you might expect for a race honouring his father’s astonishing training achievements, his contenders have been a popular order to the extent that Pond House inmates were despatched as favourite in the first two years. He has I’msingingtheblues, Arab League, Dan Breen and Street Entertainer going for him this time.
Nicky Henderson is likely to be at the forefront of many punters’ thoughts not only as he is having an unbelievable Festival with six winners so far at the time of writing but also having already demonstrated an aptitude for this race winning the inaugural running easily with Andytown before supplying the second, fourth and fifth from a powerful quartet that represented him in 2010 and a third-place finisher last year. He runs three novices, namely Molotof, Open Hearted and Oscar Nominee who all won last time out.
Given we are short on patterns with just three years’ worth of evidence to work from, I am scratching around a little looking for another angle but it is certainly worth noting the excellent strike rate of last-time-out winners in handicap hurdles at the Festival having won just under half of such races since 1993 (29-60) and from just less than 20% overall representation. Sir Des Champs was one of four horses in last season’s field attempting to follow up a last-time-out win thus becoming the first winner of this handicap to successfully do so in its three-year existence. Last time out winners are Molotof, Attaglance, Open Hearted, Oscar Nominee, Arab League, Bourne, Changing Times and Gormanstown Cuckoo.
SHORTLIST
MOLOTOF
ATTAGLANCE
CHANGING TIMES
GORMANSTOWN CUCKOO
(BOURNE)
CONCLUSION
As Nicky Henderson has set his stall out to win this race all three years and has three last-time-out winners we have to respect them all but as Open Hearted and Oscar Nominee are first season hurdlers I prefer MOLOTOF of his trio being a second-season novice who was second in the Adonis Hurdle behind Zarkandar last season and is 3-3 for this campaign. ATTAGLANCE is also a second season hurdler and last time out winner and I do respect Malcolm Jefferson as a placer of horses (his Pertemps Final winner on Thursday being another example) so he is interesting and CHANGING TIMES is another with that same profile hence his place in the short list after a wide margin win last time at Fairyhouse and this is his first run for Nigel Twiston-Davies whose son Willy Twiston-Davies takes off a juicy looking 8lbs being attached to the yard. GORMANSTOWN CUCKOO is also having his first run for a new yard and is another second-season hurdler coming off a win when he was well backed at Aintree in the autumn. BOURNE is a first-season novice but given he is also a last-time-out winner and represents a yard on fire this week and the form of his Ascot win last time looks strong, then he gets the final berth on the short list.
JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL
The advice up until recently was not to stray too far away from the leading fancies with 30 of the last 36 winners starting at no bigger than 10/1, but a 40/1 shot beat a 50/1 outsider last season and four of those six winners to start at bigger than 10/1 were achieved in the last six years.
Novices have fared very strongly with 11 winners in the last 30 runnings and are very well represented this year with 9 of the 21 runners; Kid Cassidy, Astracad, Kumbeshwar, Toubab, Slieveardagh, Eradicate, Bellvano, Lucky William and Ultimate.
As 19 of the last 20 winners had their previous start in February or March, the Grand Annual hasn’t been a race where arriving here off a break has been advantageous so I would be against Cornas, Tanks For That, (Kid Cassidy), Astracad, (Renard), (Kumbeshwar), Eradicate, (Anquetta), (Lucky William) and Norther Bay though those in brackets were only be a few days so maybe it would be harsh to dismiss them just for that reason alone.
If the fact that all bar two of the last 11 winners to fall into the tight ratings band of 129-134 doesn’t catch your eye then trends are certainly not for you and I will leave you to decide if you believe the continued success of 129-134 rated horses is a coincidence or not whilst also throwing in the fact that they also paid out winning straight forecasts in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2008. Qualifiers this season are only Idarah andNortherBayin a far stronger renewal than usual so maybe you might want to consider those rated in the 130s which also brings in Tara Royal, Bellvano, Anquetta, Lucky William, Ultimate, Free World and De Boitron.
Oiseau De Nuit’s 40/1 victory off 11st 6lbs last season (equated to a handicap mark of 145) was a surprise in more ways than one as he became the first winner since 1998 to carry over 11st. I will take the view that won’t happen twice in as many years so would be against French Opera, Cornas and Oiseau De Nuit.
Nicky Henderson (a win and five places from 18 runners since the race was named in his father’s memory) and Paul Nicholls (two wins since 2004) lead the home defence in more recent times.Hendersonis all out to win it again responsible for almost a third of the field running French Opera, Tanks For That, Kid Cassidy, Eradicate, Anquetta and Bellvano. Nicholls relies on Toubab.
However, also respect the Irish who have plundered four of the last 12 runnings so we have to seriously consider Slieveardagh, Lucky William, Idarah,NortherBayand Free World. The latter is trained by Arthur Moore who has trained two Grand Annual winners in the last ten years and, like that pair, he had his final prep race over hurdles
With regards to the last seven British-trained winners, all seven had won atCheltenhambefore. The only course winners in the race are French Opera, Oiseau De Nuit, Tanks For That, Astracad and De Boitron.
SHORT LIST
IDARAH
DE BOITRON
BELLVANO
TOUBAB
FREE WORLD
CONCLUSION
As the last seven hone-trained winners had won at Cheltenham before that means we have to look closely at DE BOITRON who was fourth in this race last year as well and horses to run in a previous running of the Grand Annual have fared well. IDARAH makes the short list being one of only two to squeeze into the narrow ratings band that has thrown up so many winners and is also Irish-trained and they have a great record recent in the race. I want a Henderson horse and a novice on my side and he runs two of those in Kid Cassidy and BELLVANO. I just prefer the latter as I don’t trust to settle well enough for a race such as this. TOUBAB would be my other novice representing a yard that have won this a couple of times since 2004 and he won with any amount in hand last time out. How you interpret which trends are strongest will determine the shortlist and arguments can be made for many but the final spot goes to FREE WORLD given the trainer’s sublime record with 2m chasers at the Festival including in this race and he is only 1lb off appearing in that strong ratings band.
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