DUBAI WORLD CUP TRENDS 2012

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The Dubai World Cup is the richest horse race in the world with a purse of 10 million dollars up for grabs. The races takes place at Meydan on Saturday 31st March and will bring together some of the best horses from Europe, Asia, America, South Africa and the Middle East. Inaugurated in 1996, the race was run on dirt at Nad Al Sheba up until 2009 before being moved to Meydan in 2010 and has been run on a Tapeta surface for the past 2 years. The change in surface means that some trends are now less significant.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 4-5-33
5yo: 3-12-48
6yo: 2-2-26
7yo+: 1-0-11
No strong trends to be gleaned from the ages of the winners.
2 of 3 winners aged 6+ had placed in the previous year’s World Cup, other had won the previous year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic

Gender
Mares (0-0-4) have failed to make the frame with any of their 4 runners since 2002.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in first 2 last time (7 won)
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 119+ last time
10 of 10 winners had 1 or 2 runs that year
10 of 10 winners had run in past 60 days
10 of 10 winners had at least 9 career starts
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (exception won over 1M 1F)
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had won a group/grade 1 (both exceptions were group 2 winners trained by Saeed Bin Suroor)
7 of 10 winners had won a race worth 250K+

Course Form
Al Maktoum Challenge R3 winner (Capponi): 143017019 (3-1-9)
Al Maktoum Challenge R2 winner (Mendip): 7134650 (1-1-7)
Al Maktoum Challenge R1 winner (Musir): 053 (0-1-3)
Previous season's UAE 2000 Guineas winner (Splash Point): 1327 (1-2-4)
Previous season's UAE Derby winner (Khawlah): 37727 (0-2-5)
Dubai City Of Gold winner (Mikhail Glinka): 3 (0-1-1)
Burj Nahaar winner (African Story): 47 (0-0-2)
3 of 5 non-American winners ran in Al Maktoum Challenge Rd 3 last time, finishing 112
2 of 5 non-American winners ran in Al Maktoum Challenge Rd 2, finishing 11
4 of 5 non-USA winners had won Rd 2 or 3 of the Al Maktoum Challenge.

Other Races
Goodwood Stakes winner (Game On Dude): 17160 (2-0-5)
San Antonio Handicap winner (Game On Dude): 1737 (1-1-4)
Jockey Club Gold Cup winner (Flat Out): 1 (1-0-1)
Suburban Handicap winner (Flat Out): 1 (1-0-1)
Arima Kinen winner (Orfevre): 1 (1-0-1)
Singapore Airlines Int'l Cup winner (Gitano Hernando): 41 (1-0-2)
Japan Dirt Cup (Transcend): 7402 (0-1-4)
Pacific Classic winner (Acclamation): 70 (0-0-2)
Champion Stakes winner (Cirrus Des Aigles): 09 (0-0-2)
Irish Champion Stakes winner (So you Think): 44 (0-0-2)
Tenno Sho winner (Tosen Jorden): 68 (0-0-2)
JBC Classic winner (Smart Falcon): 80 (0-0-2)
Tokyo Daishoten winner (Smart Falcon): 60 (0-0-2)
4 of 5 American trained winners ran in Breeders' Cup Classic, finishing 1211 (exception ran in BC Mile)
2 of 5 American trained winners ran in Donn Handicap last time, finishing 21
2 of 5 American trained winners ran in San Antonio Handicap last time, finishing 12
2 of 5 American-trained winners ran in Goodwood Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 5 American-trained winners ran in Whitney Handicap, finishing 11

Trainers
USA-trained: 6-7-32
Godolphin: 3-1-16
France: 1-1-7
Japan: 1-1-15
South Africa: 0-4-11
Great Britain: 0-2-12
Other: 0-2-25
Since this race was inaugurated in 1996 American trainers have won 8 of 16 runnings. They have failed to produce placed finisher on only 3 occasions, in 2002 when they had only one representative at 20/1 and quite importantly in the past 2 years, the first 2 renewals run on tapeta instead of dirt. The new surface looks like it may have spelt the end of the US dominance in this.
Saeed Bin Suroor (3-1-14) won the race 5 times between 1999 and 2006 but his 6 runners in the past 5 years have all finished unplaced.
Pascal Bary (1-1-3) and Katsuhiko Sumii (1-0-2) have trained the last 2 winners.
Mike De Kock (0-3-9) has seen 3 of his 9 runners make the frame, while Mahmood Al Zarooni (0-2-2) has saddled a placed finisher in past 2 runnings.

Price
From 2002 to 2008 every running of this race had gone to one of the first two in the betting but the last 3 winners have gone off 10/1, 16/1 & 12/1.
Favourites (4-3-10) have won of 4 of the last 10 but still show a level stakes loss of 1.76.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 or 5 (or previously won or placed in the World Cup)
· Finished in the first 2 last time, posting an RPR of 119+
· Run once or twice in 2012
· Ran in the past 60 days
· Won a grade/group 1
· Won over 1M 2F
· Course winner (or having first start here)
· Won Round 2 or 3 of the Al Maktoum Challenge
· Finished in first 3 in Breeders Cup Classic and/or Goodwood Stakes
· Finished in first 2 San Antonio or Donn Handicap last time