IRISH GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2012

[ganjaman2]

The Ladbrokes Irish Grand National Day at Fairyhouse always takes place on Easter Monday, which falls on the 9th April. Unlike last year, this year’s renewal takes place 5 days before its Aintree equivalent.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-2-9
7yo: 2-6-50
8yo: 4-7-69
9yo: 2-9-61
10yo: 1-4-42
11yo: 0-1-14
12yo+: 0-1-4
Horses aged 6 to 8: 7-15-128
Horses aged 9 or older: 3-15-121
The last 6 winners have been aged 6 to 8
Horses aged 10+ have won just 1 of the last 10 (1-6-60) from just under 25% of the total runners and only 11.7% of their representatives have made the places.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-6 or more: 2-11-97
Horses carrying 10-5 or less: 8-19-152
The last 8 winners have all carried 10-8 or less.
Of the 36 horses to carry 11-0+ in last 10 years (0-3-36), none have won and only 3 made the places.
Record of top weight: P4PPPPPFFP (0-1-10), only 1 of the 10 horses to be allotted top weight have completed the course.
4 of 10 winners were racing from out of the handicap, none by more than 7lbs.

Official Ratings
Horses rated 137 or higher: 0-8-66
Horses rated 125 to 136: 9-13-150
Horses rated 124 or lower: 1-9-33
9 of 10 winners were officially rated 125 to 136.
Since 2007 all 5 winners and 18 of 20 places were filled by horses rated 130 to 140.

Breeding
Irish bred: 8-24-197
French bred: 2-5-28
British bred: 0-1-18
USA bred: 0-0-6
8 of 10 winners have been Irish bred though they have represented 79.1% of the total runners. Proportionally French bred horses have superior record, having gained 2 wins and 5 places from approximately 11.2% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on last chase start

9 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
10 of 10 winners had won a chase at a right-handed track
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
8 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ (2 exceptions made first 3 in 3M pt to pt)
10 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 13 chases
10 of 10 winners had finished first past post in 2 to 4 chases
10 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 4)
8 of 10 winners had won 2 or less handicap chases
8 of 10 winners (last 7) were 1st or 2nd season chasers
Both 1st season chasers to win this had completed on all starts over fences
6 of 7 Irish-trained winners (last 6) won a chase at Fairyhouse, Gowran Park or Clonmel
6 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in a Grade A or B Leopardstown H'cap Chase since Christmas (exception won the Thyestes in January)
7 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher (3 exceptions placed in a class 2 or higher)
7 of 10 winners won a chase worth 25K+ (3 exceptions placed in a 25K+ chase)
10 of 10 winners had first start in a hurdle, bumper or point to point

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Organisedconfusion): 5 (0-0-1)
Previous season's Boylesports.com Mobile Nov Chase winner (Magnanimity): 1 (1-0-1)
Thyestes Chase winner (On His Own): 177 (1-0-3)
Previous season's Hugh McMahon Novice Chase winner (Mr Cracker): 871 (1-0-3)
Midlands National winner (Master Overseer): 1PP (1-0-3)
Troytown winner (Groody Hill): 02P2 (0-2-4)
Ladbrokes Supporting Longford GAA Beginners Chase winner (Crash): 3 (0-1-1)
Leopardstown Handicap Chase winner (Seabass): 3P (0-1-2)
Paddy Power H'cap Chase winner (Cross Appeal): 0P52 (0-1-4)
Batterstown H'cap Chase winner (Smoking Aces): 794P0 (0-1-5)
Welsh National winner (Le Beau Bai): P (0-0-1)
Leinster National winner (Paddy Pub): U0 (0-0-2)
Holden Plant Rentals Chase winner (Apt Approach): PR (0-0-2)
Dara Cassidy Memorial Handicap Chase winner (Tharawaat): UU (0-0-2)
JLT Specialty Handicap Chase winner (Alfie Sherrin): 7F (0-0-2)
Carrickmines Handicap Chase winner (Leanne): PP (0-0-2)
Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase winner (Seabass): F6 (0-0-2)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Handicap Chase winner (Cadogan): 5FU (0-0-3)
Ulster National winner (Duroob): PPP (0-0-3)
Punchestown Grand National Trial winner (Portrait King): 80P (0-0-3)
Ten Up Novice Chase winner (Lion Na Bearnai): U0F (0-0-3)
Woodlands Park Novice Chase winner (Medical Card): 5000 (0-0-4)
4 of 10 winners had finished in the first 5 in the 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham that season or the previous season
3 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Paddy Power Handicap Chase, finishing 207
3 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Thyestes Chase, finishing F10
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Carrickmines H'cap Chase, finishing 2P
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners (2 of last 3) ran in previous season's Hugh McMahon Memorial Novice Chase, finishing 41

Trainers
British trained runners (3-2-20) have won 3 of the last 8.
No trainer has saddled more than 1 winner in the past 10 years. Trainers who have gained a win and a placed finisher include Arthur Moore (1-3-14), Dessie Hughes (1-3-17), Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-4) and Noel Meade (1-1-17).
Mouse Morris (1-0-2) is the only other trainer with an entry to have saddled the winner since 2002.
Michael Hourigan (0-6-12) has seen over half his runners make the frame since 2002 and he has saddled one of the first 5 in each of the last 6 runnings.
Oliver McKiernan (0-2-3) and Tony Martin (0-2-15) have also both had a couple of placed runners in the past 10 years.
Several big Irish trainers have done poorly in this race in the past decade such as Willie Mullins (0-1-14), Paul Nolan (0-0-10), Charlie Swan (0-0-9), Tom Taaffe (0-0-5) and Eddie O’Grady (0-0-6).

Price
It has been a race for outsiders recently with 5 of last 8 winners going off at between 20/1 & 33/1.
Favourites (0-3-12) have gained no wins and just 3 places in past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 10.00.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Irish or French bred
• Aged 6 to 9
• Carrying 10-8 or less (no more than 10-13)
• Officially rated 130 to 140
• Had first run in a bumper/hurdle/point to point
• Won over 3M+
• Run at least twice this season & run in the past 50 days
• Won a chase at right-handed track (ideally Fairyhouse, Gowran or Punchestown)
• Run in 6 to 13 chases (winning 2 to 4)
• Contested no more than 9 handicap chases
• Won a class 2 or higher chase worth 19K+
• Ran in this season’s Paddy Power and/or Thyester Chase
• Ran in a Grade A or B h’cap chase at Leopardstown since Christmas Day
• Finished in first 4 in last season’s Hugh McMahon Novice Chase
• Finished in first 5 in 2011 or 2012 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham
• Trained in Great Britain or
• Trained by D T Hughes, A Moore or M Hourigan

[ganjaman2]

Max field of 30 declared:

1 12F535 Roi Du Mee 29 7 11-7 Gordon Elliott60 A P Heskin3 148 129 161
2 4-8746 Magnanimity 27 b 8 11-2 D T Hughes67 R M Power 143 135 160
3 2F-245 Osana 36 10 11-1 E J O´Grady33 A P Crowe 142 154 166
4 4133F Allee Garde 26 7 10-13 W P Mullins R Walsh 140 70 163
5 63752 Catch Me 25 10 10-13 E J O´Grady33 M P Walsh 140 — —
6 5012B2 Gift Of Dgab 71 8 10-13 A J Martin K M Donoghue3 140 135 160
7 744124 Lastoftheleaders 29 9 10-13 A L T Moore Miss N Carberry 140 148 161
8 223005 Western Charmer 23 10 10-13 D T Hughes67 D J Condon 140 155 167
9 0-5356 Aigle D´Or 104 9 10-11 Nicky Henderson33 Barry Geraghty 138 150 160
10 PF751 Alfie Sherrin 27 p 9 10-9 Jonjo O´Neill67 Richie McLernon 136 143 161
11 122423 Four Commanders 26 6 10-9 M F Morris57 D N Russell 136 129 168
12 361113 Groody Hill 104 6 10-9 C Roche67 A P McCoy 136 127 160
13 454511 Leanne 36 10 10-9 W Harney M P Butler5 136 127 158
14 06900 Prince Erik 25 8 10-9 D K Weld Andrew J McNamara 136 123 144
15 703PF Shakervilz 39 9 10-9 W P Mullins Mr D G Lavery7 136 70 159
16 4P3442 Arabella Boy 29 7 10-8 E Bolger N P Madden 135 102 158
17 51851 Lion Na Bearnai 50 10 10-8 Thomas Gibney A P Thornton3 135 109 159
18 8-231 Ninetieth Minute 44 9 10-8 T J Taaffe A E Lynch 135 105 159
19 931331 Cross Appeal 104 6 10-7 Noel Meade40 P Carberry 134 123 159
20 513S35 Start Me Up 25 8 10-6 C F Swan B R Dalton7 133 120 160
21 2PP66P The Last Derby 23 b 8 10-6 Eoin Griffin Liam Treadwell 133 129 163
22 904011 Paddy Pub 29 9 10-5 Kieran Purcell T J Doyle 132 90 157
23 P24U64 Some Target 51 8 10-5 W P Mullins P Townend 132 129 165
24 6P0446 Whatuthink 36 t 10 10-5 Oliver McKiernan R C Colgan 132 76 140
25 520501 Whodoyouthink 23 p 7 10-5 Oliver McKiernan M Darcy 132 116 165
26 383-99 Deal Done 22 p 8 10-4 D T Hughes67 Bryan J Cooper 131 44 152
27 4814F2 Out Now 72 8 10-4 E J O´Grady33 P F Mangan3 131 138 164
28 P2422 Saddlers Storm 23 10 10-4 A J Martin R M Moran 131 — 162
29 5671U3 Glam Gerry 25 8 10-2 C A Murphy B Hayes7 129 149 159
30 661F52 Raptor 60 7 10-1 W P Mullins D J Casey 128 143 160

[ganjaman2]

im doing two selections in the irish national 2 E/W singles.




Start Me Up (each way) looks to have the right sort of profile for an Irish National winner. He won a 3m beginners chase at Navan in December, edging out Berties Dream in the finish, who has boosted the form since. He was a fine staying on 3rd in the Tim Duggan at the Limerick Christmas meeting on next start off a mark of 126 under today’s pilot Ben Dalton, beaten just 4½ lengths by Seabass who has won his 2 runs since and is now rated over 2 stone higher. The 2nd from that race was Tullintain runner-up in the Thyestes next time off 3lbs higher while the 4th Silent Creek was placed in 2 valuable handicap chases off the same mark on next 2 runs. Start Me Up was still travelling well when impeded and stumbled on the bend in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown next time, unshipping his rider before 3 out. He ran a super race in the Ten Up, just outbattled in a gruelling finish, beaten less than a length by Lion na Bearnai and a head behind Four Commanders. His jumping lacked fluency at times at Cheltenham in the Kim Muir but he stuck on well for 5th and might have gone much closer had he been more fluent. If Start Me Up improves his jumping some he possesses the stamina and looks well enough handicapped off 133 to go close in this. With Ben Dalton taking off 7lbs, he is set to carry just 9-13, and recent winners have been carrying low weights. Form of the Charlie Swan yard is a concern but considering how close Start Me Up was to Four Commanders in the Ten Up, I think he’s worth a bet at 18/1 Hills.




The Last Derby - we went close with Fruity O'Rooney at the Festival...! Anyway...6th in this race last year off a similar mark after a 6 month layoff...had a spin 3 weeks back over hurdles on awful ground over the wrong and pulled up...only worn blinkers twice before...2nd at Punchestown before being pulled up with something amiss 2 weeks later...was being touted as a future GN winner when winning the United Gold Cup race at Ascot in 2009...the only time today's rider Liam Treadwell has ridden him off just 3lbs lower...that rider knows how to win the big races on the big-priced longshots that are French breds (Mon Mome!) 50/1 generally (staggering 131/1 with Betfair)