my thoughts and bets of day one at aintree
2.00 BGC PARTNERS LIVERPOOL HURDLE
This is the ninth renewal of the Liverpool Hurdle to be staged at Aintree (previously run at Ascot) and very solid patterns are already in place since the switch to Merseyside but we can’t oppose unpenalised runners any more as this race was upgraded to Grade 1 status last season so is now a level-weights contest (unpenalised horses were previously 0-20) so that is one angle that has been lost.
All eight winners since the switch to Aintree had won or finished second at the Grand National Meeting before. The only two qualifiers are Big Buck’s who has won at this meeting for the last four years including his Mildmay Novices’ Chase win in 2008 (plus the last three runnings of this race of course) and Tidal Bay who was second in the Bumper before winning the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle and Maghull Novices’ Chase. He has run at this meeting three times since so this is his seventh visit to the Grand National Meeting on the trot but his last three runs were less inspiring when fifth in the Melling Chase, fourth in this race two years ago and then unseating his rider in the Grand National.
Throw in the fact that the last eight winners started in the first three in the betting and that seven of the eight winners had also posted a top-four finish in the previous month’s World Hurdle won by Big Buck’s with Smad Place back in third, and I ask myself do we really want to be looking to oppose Big Buck’s especially as the second best guide, the Cleeve Hurdle (Restless Harry back in fourth beaten 22 lengths), was also won by the surefire long odds-on favourite? The other two races to have featured more than one Liverpool Hurdle winner were the Ascot Hurdle in November and the Relkeel Hurdle but neither race has a representative this season.
Some optimistic souls may want to take Big Buck’s on because, if successful, he would become the oldest winner of the race at the age of nine but, that said, he became the oldest winner of the race last year when successful as an eight-year-olds (all seven winners were aged six or seven prior to the 2011 running – Poungach is the only six or seven-year-old declared this year) and all-time time greats tend to overcome age stats. Five-year-olds have struggled as they have in other Grade 1 hurdles races in the spring which puts me off Smad Place who I felt was ridden to pick up the pieces in the World Hurdle when finishing third after the non stayers faded from two out.
BIG BUCK’S
POUNGACH
CONCLUSION
No getting away from BIG BUCK’S on form or trends but, unless you are a heavy odds-on backer, that is no use to you so maybe the betting without the favourite appeals as the best market to get involved in. The likely second favourite, Smad Place, should head this market but age stats say five-year-olds struggle and I think he was a little flattered to finish third in the World Hurdle as he was ridden to pick up the pieces after more fancied rivals fell away having tried to serve it up to Big Buck’s so maybe POUNGACH could be the way to go as he is the only horse to fit the age stats and he also arrives here fresh. It was another stablemate of Big Buck’s (Five Dream) that was ridden to finish second to hin at Newbury and Ascot last year and I just wonder if the yard have the same idea with Poungach? The same stable also have Tidal Bay as well who likes to be ridden from off the pace but he is 11 now and a tricky ride and this is the first time that Nick Scholfield will have ridden him in a race. I wouldn’t put it beyond Tidal Bay to return to form though as he often runs very well when something is different is tried with him and a return to hurdles might just switch him on as it did when he returned to timber to win the Cleeve Hurdle in 2010 having been chasing.
2.30 MATALAN 4YO ANNIVERSARY HURDLE
Since this race was upgraded to Grade 1 status seven years ago, the class aspect has become even more apparent as six of those seven runnings went the way of the favourite. The bottom line is that we want to be on a class horse with proven form as 14 of the last 17 winners had won or been placed in Graded company earlier in that season. On that basis I would be against Bradbury, Gottany O’s, Kapga De Cerisy, Lyvius and Beyeh for starters.
As many as 18 of the last 22 winners had won at least twice over hurdles beforehand which is a negative most notably for the Triumph fourth Dodging Bullets who is a maiden after two hurdling starts. I imagine that connections don’t mind losing their novice status for next season if he can land a Grade 1 here. Others yet to win at least over twice over timber are Bradbury, Eagle Rock, Gottany O’s, Sadler’s Risk, Zarzal and Beyeh. Pearl Swan would have two wins if he was not demoted at Cheltenham in January after getting his head in front so I am very loathed to want to take him on for that reason. The stewards could easily have gone the other way it was such a tight call.
Respect French-breds as they have won six of the last 13 runnings and that doesn’t include last year’s winner, Zarkandar, who despite being a French import is in fact Irish-bred. French breds in the line up are Pearl Swan, Hinterland and Kapga De Cerisy.
The Triumph Hurdle is the key guide of course and nine of the last 12 winners contested that prize at Cheltenham with Detroit City, Katchit and Zarkandar completing the double in just the last six years which clearly is a big pointer towards Countrywide Flame’s chance. Compare that to before this was a Grade 1 event when the Triumph winner had to carry a penalty, where only Pollardstown had previously completed the double back in 1979. Behind the surprise 33/1 winner Countrywide Flame were Grumeti (3rd), Dodging Bullets (4th) and Sadlers Risk (6th) who take him on again (my view was that the third and fourth got racing too early and set it up for the finishers) as does Pearl Swan who was finishing to good effect four lengths down when falling at the last flight and would have gone mighty close in my opinion.
The other two big guides are the Grade 2 Finesse Hurdle, also at Cheltenham and won by Grumeti following Pearl Swan’s demotion and the Grade 1 Finale Hurdle at Chepstow where Countrywide Flame finished second with both races featuring five of the last 12 Anniversary Hurdle winners. Another race to note is the Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting in November as three of the last nine winners finished first or second in that contest in which Hinterland gave weight and a beating to his rivals.
Despite comprising less than a tenth of all runners, fillies have won this three times in the past 18 years, twice on testing ground, taking advantage of their 7lbs sex allowance. Beyeh is their only representative this year and like the other three winning fillies, she bypassed the Cheltenham Festival.
SHORT LIST
PEARL SWAN
COUNTRYWIDE FLAME
HINTERLAND
CONCLUSION
Being a French-bred that ran in the Triumph Hurdle (and might have won it for my money had he not fallen at the final flight), then PEARL SWAN would be the trends pick for me especially as he also passed the post in front in another good guide, the Finesse Hurdle, before he was disqualified and placed behind Grumeti. He may well also just sneak favouritism and this has been a big race for favourites since it was elevated to Grade 1 status. My feeling on Grumeti is that despite two good runs at Cheltenham is that he has looked better going the other way round. Given the excellent record of the Triumph winner since this became a Grade 1 then COUNTRYWIDE FLAME has to also make the short list though I did feel Grumeti and Dodging Bullets helped set it up for him as they committed too soon. He was also second at Chepstow in another very good guide to this race over Christmas so more than deserves his place on the short list and he would be the other contender alongside Pearl Swan vying to start favourite in my eyes, which has been a strong position to start in this race since it became a Grade 1. HINTERLAND has been discarded by Walsh for Pearl Swan but he could be an each-way shot to consider given he won a good guide to this race back in November and is also one of just three French-breds.
3.05 BETFRED BOWL
Naturally, the Cheltenham Gold Cup has to be the starting point as over two thirds of winners of this race since it was first run contested the blue riband the previous month and especially now that this is a Grade 1 race having been elevated to such status two years ago. Four horses to contest the Gold Cup take their chance; Burton Port (4th), Carruthers (10th), Diamond Harry (pulled up) and What A Friend (fell second). Oddly enough, I would be least keen on Burton Port as a betting proposition at the prospective prices despite the fact he ran such a big race, but that has been the problem down the years, horses to run their guts out in the Gold Cup all too often leave their race behind them and it has been the Gold Cup also-rans that had endured a less taxing race that have more left in the tank for Aintree. Denman (x2) and Imperial Commander being the three latest examples in the last three years but there have been many, many others.
What Burton Port has in his favour is that there is an extra week between Cheltenham and Aintree than usual from which to recover plus he is a tough cookie and he won the Mildmay Chase here two years ago after running second in the RSA Chase but the race stats are against him. Diamond Harry will appreciate returning to a flat track after two poor runs at Cheltenham but the jury has to either still be out or on the verge of delivering a guilty verdict with this mentally and physically fragile sort so What A Friend and this season’s Hennessy winner Carruthers (wears first time blinkers here) appeal most from the Gold Cup field and you may recall they finished first and second in this race two years ago when they had last year’s winner, Nacarat, well beaten back in third. Carruthers would need a cut in the ground to be at his best so any more rain will aid his cause but he was outclassed in the Gold Cup whereas What A Friend only got as far as the second so he should arrive here as fresh as a daisy and he was fourth in last season’s Gold Cup.
Carruthers did win the Hennessy though which has been a good guide in recent seasons with two of the last four winners having won or finished in that Newbury handicap. The King George VI Chase is also a significant guide with eight of the last 15 Bowl winners finishing in the first four at Kempton but that stat is rendered irrelevant this year with no top-four finishers taking part though Nacarat finished a well-beaten fifth. I would also say normally look at the winners of the Argento Chase (Midnight Chase) and Charlie Hall Chase (Weird Al) as two of the seven winners of both those Grade 2 events also won here but neither take their chance.
A race known for its quality rather than its quantity, that has helped horses that like to force the pace down the years and Nacarat extended the staggeringly good record of front runners last season making all the running to become the 12th winner to make most in 28 runnings. That’s your in-running angle and he is likely to want to take it to his rivals again and could have things own way up front though Carruthers could spoil it for him as (a) he likes to be ridden prominently and (b) first-time blinkers could light him up too much. For those reasons plus the fact that this race has a much bigger field than usual (11 runners), it is likely that Nacarat has a much tougher task on his hands this time to make most or all.
The Irish don’t tend to bother too much with the race and have won just three of the 28 runnings but the Irish Hennessy (poor renewal) runner-up Roberto Goldback runs here rather than in the Grand National and also wears first-time blinkers and he is joined by Follow The Plan who was beaten ten lengths into third in this race last year and this is a far more competitive renewal. This pair then looked like fighting out the Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown but Roberto Goldback fell at the last fence presenting the race to Follow The Plan.
I advocate opposing horses aged in double figures in the Gold Cup (just one win in 20 years) but the Betfred Bowl is a totally different story winning exactly 50% of the 28 runnings. Nacarat became the latest to do so last season and given that he will probably lead again, he has to be given every respect in his bid to emulate Wayward Lad, Docklands Express and First Gold and become another dual winner of this race. What A Friend is also bidding to become a dual winner.
The second and third favourite have a far superior record to the market leader winning 11 of the last 19 runnings between them.
SHORT LIST
WHAT A FRIEND
NACARAT
CARRUTHERS
CONCLUSION
The stats say look to a horse that contested the Gold Cup but failed to have a hard race so WHAT A FRIEND makes most appeal having only got as far as the second fence at Cheltenham. The fact he has won this race before is also a positive as I like horses at this meeting that have won here before or run very well in defeat and he is in the right kind of position in the market just behind the favourite as it would appear that Riverside Theatre is the most likely market leader. I fear that Burton Port may have left his race behind him at Cheltenham so the Hennessy winner, CARRUTHERS, also makes the short list of those that ran in the Gold Cup. The Hennessy has been a good guide of late and any more rain, a forceful ride in a race where prominently ridden fare exceptionally well and the application of first-time blinkers make him an interesting each-way option. NACARAT won this race last year making all and although that will be much tougher to replicate this season in a bigger and more competitive field and being a year older, he bounced back to his best last time out winning at Kempton and will make them all go if getting into a rhythm if allowed an uncontested lead. Medermit is interesting moving up in trip but he belts too many fences for me and there are more fences over 3m1f than 2m5f. If the slightly slower pace helps him in that respect then he could be dangerous but we don’t know he stays for sure or whether he will keep his form as he was disappointing at this meeting last year after he ran in the Arkle. Who knows how good Hunt Ball is but he isn’t a trends horse and neither is Riverside Theatre who had a very hard when winning the Ryanair which would seriously worry me given he is likely to start favourite. Master Of The Hall doesn’t fit the patterns but I have a sneaky feeling that he could fare best of the Henderson trio despite being around at 14/1 shot.
3.40 JOHN SMITH’S FOXHUNTERS CHASE
Although the race now attracts a maximum field don’t be fooled into thinking it is an open event as the front four in the market have an extraordinarily strong record over the last 19 years winning on 17 occasions, Baby Run being the latest 12 months ago when justifying favouritism. They don’t hang about in this big-field amateur riders’ contest and, time and again, it pays to be in the front rank from early on as it does with the Topham and Grand Sefton over this trip on this course.
I unquestionably prefer to look at the younger hunters for the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ where 20 of the last 22 winners were aged nine or younger (including the first four last month) but it is completely the opposite for Aintree’s big hunter chase over the Grand National obstacles where all but two of the last 28 winners were aged at least nine. Amazingly, only one horse is aged under nine this season, Blackstaff.
Trust Fund and Christy Beamish had won in 2008 and 2009 for horses which had started out as pointers, but the victories of Silver Adonis and Baby Run during the last two years saw a return to the domination of ex-handicappers, six of his kind having landed this from 2002-2007. Bow School, Cloudy Lane, Eleazar, Fresh Air And Fun, Gwanako, Herons Well, Island Life, Keenans Future, Kildonnan, Launde, My Way De Solzen, Offshore Account, Presentandcorrect, Roulez Cool, Sherrif Hutton, Silver Adonis, Sizing America, Teddys Reflection, The Polomoche, Unowatimeen, and William Butler were all handicapping or better before the switch to hunter chasing.
Another strong statistic is that 16 of the last 19 winners finished placed at worst last time out. One of those was last year’s winner, Baby Run, who unseated his rider two when leading the Christie’s Foxhunters’ at the Cheltenham Festival. The point I am really getting at therefore is to only consider in-form horses and maybe forgive just an okay run at Cheltenham last month as it far from easy to place in the 24 runner Christie’s Foxhunters’.
The best guide has been the Christie’s Foxhunters’ at Cheltenham which has featured three ten winners and in which Cloudy Lane finished sixth. Eleazar and Roulez Cool both failed to complete and Blackstaff was pulled up whilst Boxer Georg (runner-up in last year’s Aintree Foxhunters), Herons Well was Keenans Future finished tenth, eleventh and twelfth. The Walrus Hunters’ Chase at Haydock was won by Unowatimeen and has featured two of the last four winners.
No Irish hunter chase features as a leading guide as only Enda Bolger’s Elegant Lord in 1999 has inscribed his name on the Roll of Honour in the last 28 years for the Irish. That’s the main negative against last year’s runner-up, Boxer Georg.
SHORT LIST
GWANAKO
CLOUDY LANE
OFFSHORE ACCOUNT
UNOWATIMEEN
CONCLUSION
CLOUDY LANE has an obvious chance after a good sixth in the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ (I don’t mind an unplaced run in that hot race if they ran well) having also been sixth when favourite for the Grand National itself in 2008. He would be my preferred option of those that contested the Cheltenham race over Roulez Cool and Boxer Georg. Paul Nicholls has won this race before with ex-handicappers and GWANAKO has been specifically trained for this race having won the Topham over these fences in 2008. He is still only a nine-year-old having seemingly been around for years and won very easily last time out so is a major player. OFFSHORE ACCOUNT has also run well over these fences when third in this race last year and when seventh in a Topham and he could be the best each-way play of those outside of the market leaders. UNOWATIMEEN won the Walrus Hunters’ Chase which is usually one of the best races of its type and has had a significant bearing on this race in recent years so he finalises the short list.
4.15 MATALAN.CO.UK RED RUM HANDICAP CHASE
With novices winning six of the last ten runnings (and three of the previous seven renewals before that), this is usually the most lucrative positive pattern to latch onto like it is for the Grand Annual, its equivalent race at the Cheltenham Festival. Of the 13 runners there are four novices taking their chance this year; Kumbeshar, Kid Cassidy, Astracad and Edgardo Sol.
With regards to the Grand Annual won this season by another novice, Bellvano, that handicap is also the best individual race guide by quite a distance with six of the last 13 Red Rum Chase winners taking their chance there including two winners and as many as eight of the 13 runners to their chance which is a massively higher ratio than usual; Tanks For That (2nd and put up 6lbs FOR that run) Kumbeshwar (3rd), De Boitron (6th), Astracad (7th), Tara Royal (10th), Kid Cassidy (12th as the 4/1 favourite), Free World (fell four out when going okay) and Oiseau De Nuit (brought down when prominent).
Last season’s renewal is also a race to note as three of the 13 winners ran well in the race the previous year. Silk Drum is back to defend his title off a mark of 136 and you can’t argue he doesn’t have a fair chance on ratings compared to last year as he won off 141 after being 9lbs out of the handicap. Trained by Howard Johnson last year who used to prepare his horses for this meeting, whether Dianne Sayer as laid him out as much I wouldn’t know. Last year’s runner-up, Oiseau de Nuit, is also back for another crack, this time off a 2lbs lower mark. However, the Red Rum Handicap Chase is not a race for horses cracking on in years as 22 of the last 23 runnings were won by horses aged younger than ten and Oiseau De Nuit is the only horse aged in double figures.
Only Fota Island has won carrying more than 11st 2lbs since 1999 and he went on to finish second in the Queen Mother Champion Chase the following season just to give us an indication of his quality. Therefore, that is another negative for Osieau De Nuit off 11st 9lbs (though his rider claims 7lbs off him and he did defy the weight stats when winning last season’s Grand Annual) plus Tanks For That off 11st 12lbs.
Beware Paul Nicholls’ runners has he has sent out 20 straight losers in this race in the last 14 years and he runs Takeroc and Edgardo Sol here. Two wins in the last 13 runnings is a respectable return for the Irish as it is not a race they would tackle in any great depth and Free World and Echo Bob represent them this time.
Maybe also look to the front five in the betting as they have won all bar four of those last 14 runnings of this competitive handicap.
SHORT LIST
KID CASSIDY
KUMBESHWAR
FREE WORLD
ASTRACAD
CONCLUSION
Given the excellent record of novices and Grand Annual runners then Kid Cassidy, Kumbeshwar and Astracad would be obvious trends picks meeting both criteria. KUMBESHWAR fared best in third and is off just a 1lb higher mark so his chance is obvious and he ran well at this meeting last year when second to Zarkandar in the four-year-old hurdle. I just wonder if KID CASSIDY has shown less of his hand though. I never really fancied he would enjoy all the hullabaloo of the Festival and a big field in the Grand Annual, or an undulating track for that matter, but this is much more his bag and if McCoy can settle him and get him in a rhythm, I think he is the best horse in the raceand meets the two key trends to boot. Astracad was seventh in the Grand Annual but didn’t have an ideal preparation by some reports so I can see him leaving that form behind and being an each-way player at a tidy price here. I was quite tempted by Henry De Bromhead’s Echo Bob for the final short list pick as have loads of time for this trainer in Britain but as FREE WORLD contested the Grand Annual and is housed with a master trainer of 2m chasers, he is the final shortlisted horse and he was going perfectly well at Cheltenham too until falling four out. I always had him down as a bit of short runner when trained by Paul Nichols so I imagine this flatter track would suit him to. He is also trained by Arthur Moore who has sent over Feroda and Jeffell to win this race.
4.50 BETFRED MANIFESTO NOVICES’ CHASE
Introduced into the Aintree Festival in 2009, this Grade 2 novice chase over 2m4f fills the void in the spring for horses that are more comfortable as this intermediate race distance than the Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) over two miles or the Mildmay Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) over 3m1 and clearly we need more runnings before we can time a proper trends-based view so I will keep this brief.
Three races down and all three winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival and it is two successes for the Arkle Trophy (Menorah and Al Ferof finished third and fourth respectively) and one for the Jewson (Cristal Bonus was pulled up after suffering an abscess on his withers). The other declared pair of Alasi and Pepite Rose are both mares, the former finished in the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham and the latter hosed up in the Mares’ Only Novice Chase Final at Newbury. The Jewson was having its first ever running so it could be the race to latch onto for the future over the same trip as the Manifesto Chase. Both winners to contest the Arkle before the Jewson was introduced into the Festival finished unplaced at Cheltenham though ran well in defeat whereas Wishfull Thinking blew away the Arkle favourite, Medermit, here by ten lengths making all the running having only found one too good in the Jewson.
Although it is ridiculously-early days to be drawing any real conclusions but the 1-2 last season were rated 150+ heading into the race as were the 1-2-3 of the previous season. The inaugural winner was rated 147 in the lowest-class of the three runnings so far. In fact, only one of the seven horses rated over 150 that did not fall early on has not finished in the first three. Officials ratings have Al Ferof (160) clear of Cristal Bonus (152), Menorah (151), Pepite Rose (150) and Alasi (138).
All three winners to date raced handily which is often the case with winners on the Mildmay Chase course. All three winners also started second or third favourite.
SHORT LIST
AL FEROF
CRISTAL BONUS
CONCLUSION
Menorah may have finished ahead of AL FEROF in the Arkle but I doubt that would have been the case had the grey not made a serious error four out from which point he couldn’t muster the 2m speed to get back into the race and he was not given a hard time from two out. Menorah still looked hesitant over his fences (even less ideal for the Mildmay Course than Cheltenham) and picked up the pieces for third. CRISTAL BONUS had been seriously impressive on his first two chase starts and was well fancied for the Jewson but ran no race due to an abscess. That has to be forgiven and Nicholls feels he should be better going this way round than when making a lovely shape at his fences at Kempton. Walsh does prefer Al Ferof of the Nicholls pair and he is rarely wrong. Pepite Rose has been ridiculously impressive notching up a four-timer and receives a 7lbs mares’ allowance here so should not be underestimated.
5.25 SILVER CROSS HANDICAP HURDLE
Aintree officials have had a late change around of sponsors for the 2m4f and 3m handicap hurdle since the Aintree & Punchestown Festivals Betting Guide was published so the Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle is now over three miles and not 2m4f as appears in the Guide. In other words, they have switched this 3m handicap hurdle to the opening day but the sponsor remains the same and you want to be reading pages 51-53 for this race.
Given that novices have won five of the last six runnings then that is an obvious place to start and qualifiers on that score are Deireadh Re, Gullinbursti and American Spin. Talking of the bottom weight, American Spin, he is the only horse rated between 128-131 in the race which is the ratings band that featured seven of the last nine winners. Clearly this is a race on the up in terms of quality.
Horses not to have run at least four times earlier in the season have won just once in the last 24 runnings which puts me off the disappointing Pertemps Final favourite, Our Father, plus Spirit River who ran so well for a long way in the Coral Cup in addition to Veiled and Shoegazer. The last eight winners had also won earlier in the campaign which is something that the following have yet to achieve; Spirit River, Rick, Buena Vista, Veiled and Ringaroses who won this race two years ago and indeed was the black sheep in the respect that he was the winner with less than four starts to his name earlier in the season. Ringaroses was trained by Jonjo O’Neill who has won this race four times in the last decade (now with Fergal O’Brien) and he runs Palace Jester this time.
I am also against five-year-olds with just two wins in nigh on a quarter of a century and both of those ended up being Grade 1 horses. Venetia Williams is the only trainer with five-year-olds this season and runs two – Houblon Des Obeaux and Tenor Nivernais.
The Pertemps Final has been the best relevant guide and the winner, Cape Tribulation, will attempt to follow up off top weight and an 8lbs higher mark. Houblon Des Obeuax (4th), Reindeer Dippin (5th), Rick (6th), Palace Jester (12th), Buena Vista (13th) and Our Father (15th)
reoppose.
SHORT LIST
AMERICAN SPIN
GULLINBURSTI
DEIREADH RE
PALACE JESTER
REINDEER DIPPIN
CONCLUSION
Given that novices have won five of the last six runnings despite being heavily outnumbered, I have to include all three novices in the short list. DEIREADH RE and GULLINBURSTI have both been off the course longer than most winners of this prize but being a novice trumps that for me and 55 days off is hardly excessive from when they were sixth and second respectively in a competitive 3m handicap hurdle at Newbury. Both could have contested the Albert Bartlett at the Festival but their connections gave the meeting a miss. AMERICAN SPIN has squeezed in off bottom weight and is the third novice and the only horse rated between 128-131 like seven of the last nine winners. That stat will be hard to keep up as this is a better race now but if you are looking for a big each-way shot, he could be the one having been pulled up in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Hurdle on his only run this season. Getting a run into him before this handicap? Stranger things – Time To Rupert was 50/1 when he won this race. PALACE JESTER gets the final nod as his trainer has won this race four times in the last ten years which is something else give how competitive it is. He went off too fast in the Pertemps Final last time when trying to make all so I am hoping for a less aggressive ride this time and McCoy takes over in the saddle. REINDEER DIPPIN gets the final vote, The more rain the better for him so he ran a cracker in the circumstances on good ground to be fifth in the Pertemps Final which has been the best guide and he was second at a big price in the 2m4f handicap hurdle at this meeting last season.
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